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Looking for extreme trading systems

  • #21
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:28pm Dec 3, 2007 3:28pm
Some people on the forum can not see all attachments nor can they open some files. This was caused by the server work on Saturday. The FF team is aware of the problem and working on correcting the problem. Repair Thread.
  • #22
  • Dec 3, 2007 9:09pm Dec 3, 2007 9:09pm
Hi BHale

I was able to load the indicator in MT4 without any probs using the template you provided, and must say looks rather pretty. But I dont understand your statement "When the max difference between these settings are under 3 or 4 and it is in extremes (85 or 15), enter a trade to the oppositie direction with a limit of 10 pips."

I could not figure out how to determine the max difference values you mention, if you get a chance can you or someone else who understands this better than me, post a screenshot explaining where these values are determined.

Thanks to everyone in advance for yoru help.

Jenna
  • #23
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:08am Dec 4, 2007 4:08am
Re big balls trading... some back of the fag packet calculations.

Assuming blind trading on the open, in the past 5 years, you'd lose around 90 times, total of -12000 pips on GBPUSD. Say 3 pip spread, total outgoing of -15000. Wins are around 1200 trades = 12000 pips. Total for 5 years, -3000.

That's some big balls and big discretion too
  • #24
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:56am Dec 4, 2007 4:56am
You can always try the old Martingale breakouts in the direction of the trend: you add up one lot per breakout in the direction of the trend while trailing the previous positions' stoplosses up one "segment". Every breakout equals to one lot added and all stoplosses trailed.

If you catch a good trend your multiple positions will make a killing by the time the trend bends. If the trend bends in its early stages you will probably score a loss on the overall account.
  • #25
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:10am Dec 4, 2007 7:10am
WTB,

Would you please post a visual of your thoughts using martingale from the above post? Thanks.
  • #26
  • Dec 4, 2007 7:18am Dec 4, 2007 7:18am
He's just talking about adding to positions, or "pyramiding."

I started a thread on this concept about a year ago...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11566

So essentially you are reverse Martingaling..... that is, you are reinvesting all profits made on the last leg of the trade in the hopes that the trend continues, and compounding all profits as you go.

This is an all or nothing strategy, but a margin call could still leave you in profit.
  • #27
  • Dec 4, 2007 8:17am Dec 4, 2007 8:17am
great thread concept tdion.

surprised no one has thought of searching out the extreme risk / extreme return strategies before - they can provide a very worthwhile instruction.

if you start with a high return, it may be easier to modify down to acceptable risk. whereas with a low risk strategy, squeezing out more return is not so easy.

i guess we usually focus most on risk because we do not want to lose the account, but high return should be just as important as low risk.

keeping in mind that risk equals loss (not return!), we should be balancing expected return with drawdown/volitility to identify efficient strategies.
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #28
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:24pm Dec 4, 2007 1:24pm
Hmm - Maybe the reason some people can't see the differences on the chart is coloring. The text is in white. If your chart background is white, then you wouldn't see it. Try a slightly different color, or open the file in the editor, change color of the objects and recompile
  • #29
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:44pm Dec 4, 2007 1:44pm
Dear Bhale,
do u mean that u only take 10 pips profit? ..or u wait until it turn to the other extreme n close + countertrend again?
New to Fx.
Thanks


ups..after lookin at tf 1h, now i see that it's only show stoch at diff setting.If the diff value 3-4 it suggest an ob/os, thus countertrend is justified.Is it?
  • #30
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:23pm Dec 4, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting banzai
For 10 pips, you can use the MA crossing trading method. Here's the EA:

Thanks Sir,
You did not explain how to set the EA for proper functioning.How do I set the parameters to enable it work well for me on a mini account.
Regards
Arnoldchidi
  • #31
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:29pm Dec 6, 2007 4:29pm
Yes - I only take 10 pips profit. Sometimes I try to do it twice. The differences need to be close, like under 5. The smaller the better. Also, the stoch lines have to be way overbought or sold, like over 85 or under 15. I see over 90 and under 10 all the time. Like I said, I could get more pips, but I want that over 95% success rate. I HATE TO LOSE!
I hit 16 so far this week, and just sold AUDUSD and NZDUSD right after 4 PM CST. I expect these to be done by late tonight. I will not be trading tomorrow because I hate the volatility of NFP. It's way overhyped news, and the margin of error is enough to be half the number. I just stay out.
  • #32
  • Dec 6, 2007 7:07pm Dec 6, 2007 7:07pm
Quoting bhale
Yes - I only take 10 pips profit. Sometimes I try to do it twice. The differences need to be close, like under 5. The smaller the better. Also, the stoch lines have to be way overbought or sold, like over 85 or under 15. I see over 90 and under 10 all the time. Like I said, I could get more pips, but I want that over 95% success rate. I HATE TO LOSE!
I hit 16 so far this week, and just sold AUDUSD and NZDUSD right after 4 PM CST. I expect these to be done by late tonight. I will not be trading tomorrow because I hate the volatility of NFP. It's way overhyped news, and the margin of error is enough to be half the number. I just stay out.
can u please post some charts? cheers.
  • #33
  • Dec 7, 2007 1:11pm Dec 7, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting bhale
My trading goes for 10 pips, too. I get about 15 to 20 signals a week. I use Spuds Stochastic array on 1 HR charts. It is an array of 19 stoch lines using differnet settings. When the max difference between these settings are under 3 or 4 and it is in extremes (85 or 15), enter a trade to the oppositie direction with a limit of 10 pips. I don't use stop losses and trade 1 mini lot per $1000 in account. If trade goes against me by 100 pips (very very rare) I add another position and average to breakeven. Stop there. I used to continue adding until I came so close to losing it all. Now I just leave it on, it will come back eventually. I am attaching the template. Just put it on an hourly chart and you will see what I mean.

Stoch Diff is an indicator that displays the max difference in the stoch levels
Hi Bhale, nice system. Thanks for sharing!

What do you means by "maximum difference between these settings are under 3 or 4" ? Which difference you are talking about?
  • #34
  • Dec 8, 2007 4:33am Dec 8, 2007 4:33am
Quoting tdion
So the system can generate 1000 percent 2 out of 10 six month periods, and the other 8 six month periods it can bankrupt my account.
Well, let's have a look: 1000% in 2 out of 10, so in 1 out of 5.

Just by looking at these numbers you will know that this would be a holy grail...and therefore the chances are quite low you will find a system like that which works over the longterm.

Why ?

Period 1: Risk $1000 ; Win; $1000 + $1000 * 10 = + $11000
Period 2: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 3: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 4: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 5: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000

-------
So you would make 600% over 5 periods...dude
  • #35
  • Dec 8, 2007 10:24am Dec 8, 2007 10:24am
You got me....

Quoting Currywurst
Well, let's have a look: 1000% in 2 out of 10, so in 1 out of 5.

Just by looking at these numbers you will know that this would be a holy grail...and therefore the chances are quite low you will find a system like that which works over the longterm.

Why ?

Period 1: Risk $1000 ; Win; $1000 + $1000 * 10 = + $11000
Period 2: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 3: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 4: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000
Period 5: Risk $1000; Loose; = -$1000

-------
So you would make 600% over 5 periods...dude
  • #36
  • Dec 8, 2007 11:02am Dec 8, 2007 11:02am
Quoting johnedoe
Big Balls System (posted on 4xusers by Robert Cheng)


According to him, he and his wife have been getting a 90% success rate using what I call "The Big Balls Stategy"....
I've read about it. But you need more than 90% if you use a 200 pip stop and a 10 pip target.

Regards - Xaron
  • #37
  • Dec 9, 2007 5:54pm Dec 9, 2007 5:54pm
I down loaded the stoch difference indicator and can see it on my chart. My question is the two numbers that show, do you look at just the signal dif or the main dif or take the difference between the two in waiting for the number to be 4 or 3. Trying to figure out how to get that number. Any help would be great. Thanks in advance.
  • #38
  • Dec 9, 2007 6:14pm Dec 9, 2007 6:14pm
Quoting johnedoe
Big Balls System (posted on 4xusers by Robert Cheng)


According to him, he and his wife have been getting a 90% success rate using what I call "The Big Balls Stategy". I must say, when he showed me his printed account summary, I was quite impressed - finally, someone that has consistent results with the full documentation to back it up.

His strategy involves making a market order, either buying or shorting, and setting a 10-pip limit, with a 200 pip stop. Yes, you heard me, a 200 pip stop!

I don't know about you, but this is contrary to what I've been taught about Money Management. Instead of a 1:2 risk/reward, he's got a 20:1 risk reward ratio.

His technique involves:

1. Scalping (only looking for 10 pips)
2. Trading all 17 currencies (any currency will do)
3. Trading size of 2 lots at a time
4. Trading on a standard accout of $50,000.
5. Sitting in front of the computer 2 hours every evening, between GMT1500 - GMT2200.
6. Entering the trade, turning off the computer, and forgetting about it & going to sleep
7. Waking up the next morning to look at the results
8. Active/Swing trading - 50% of his trades lasted under an hour, while the rest were under a day.
9. Ignorning all news information, including alerts, events, interest rate announcements, terrorism, etc.
10. Pure technical trading
11. Deep, deep, pockets.
12. Balls. Big balls.
well this strategy seems flawed to me: let's take some math:

90% success rate with no compounding and not increasing lot size:

10 x 200 pips lost = 2 000 pip lost (x2 lot means....)

90 x 10 pips win = 900 pips won.

even deepest pockets will not help with this one. He should have bigger success ratio.

MM is OK, but there should be more wins than just 90%. It is not necessary for a strategy to have RR > 1, it is perfectly Ok to have small RR but expectancy should be positive and ~~ above 0,5.

In other words: Big SL with a small TP is OK if you win frequently.
  • #39
  • Dec 10, 2007 4:23am Dec 10, 2007 4:23am
I would echo that question and also ask whether you assess the stoch indicator as being in extremes (85 or higher; 15 or lower) when all stoch lines conform, or just a majority, or an average between them?

It doesn't look so easy to backtest on the stoch diff numbers.

Quoting mmcoz
I down loaded the stoch difference indicator and can see it on my chart. My question is the two numbers that show, do you look at just the signal dif or the main dif or take the difference between the two in waiting for the number to be 4 or 3. Trying to figure out how to get that number. Any help would be great. Thanks in advance.
  • #40
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:38pm Dec 11, 2007 4:38pm
The signal diff and main diff are references to me. I would like to see both under 4 or 5. I get the number by taking the maximum difference between all the different 19 stoch lines. No you do not subtract each other, just use them as reference. If they are low and the lines are over 85 or less than 15, I put on a trade and try for 10 pips.
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