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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

You talk the talk I walk the talk 8 replies

Attachments: Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #41
  • Dec 3, 2007 12:41pm Dec 3, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
And not only.

I guess this "end of carry trades" stuff could be interpreted as "end of that crazy huge uptrend".

We can make a living here not depending on trends. As long as GJ goes on spitting 200-300 pips a day, I don't care about the direction or the greedy bastards going sad because the party is over.
Jeeze how sad can it be when the ATR for this pair is 346 pips on a bad day?
  • #42
  • Dec 3, 2007 12:56pm Dec 3, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting smjones
Jeeze how sad can it be when the ATR for this pair is 346 pips on a bad day?
No, I meant sad because the "borrow yen / buy stocks / go home" party may be over. Well, for the "end of carry trades" crowd.
  • #43
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:10pm Dec 3, 2007 1:10pm
There has been evidence for some time that Persian Gulf oil producers are edging toward a less firm currency link to the dollar. Arab News today carries a story entitled "AMF Chief Urges GCC States to Drop Dollar Peg." (AMF is Arab Monetary Fund. GCC is Gulf Cooperation Council.) AMF chief Al-Mannai argues that revaluations against the dollar won't solve the problem of inflation, and advises either a float or a peg to a currency basket. Either choice would very likely mean reduced US$ reserve holdings. Most of the 24 analysts in a recent Reuters poll expect Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE to join Kuwait in dropping their US$ peg as early as 2008. GCC rulers meet next week to discuss exchange rate policies.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #44
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:22pm Dec 3, 2007 1:22pm
you opened this thread today and allready has 3 pages. Go go cesar, no wonder you reached 8000 posts

my oppinion about carry trading: as long as will be uncertainty in the markets, esp when talking about banks, the */yen won't be going anywhere
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #45
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:40pm Dec 3, 2007 1:40pm
Quoting semar
you opened this thread today and allready has 3 pages. Go go cesar, no wonder you reached 8000 posts

my oppinion about carry trading: as long as will be uncertainty in the markets, esp when talking about banks, the */yen won't be going anywhere
thanks man,

well, if GBPJPY goes anywhere 200 pips a day, I don't care :
  • #46
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:44pm Dec 3, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting DutchTrader
There has been evidence for some time that Persian Gulf oil producers are edging toward a less firm currency link to the dollar. Arab News today carries a story entitled "AMF Chief Urges GCC States to Drop Dollar Peg." (AMF is Arab Monetary Fund. GCC is Gulf Cooperation Council.) AMF chief Al-Mannai argues that revaluations against the dollar won't solve the problem of inflation, and advises either a float or a peg to a currency basket. Either choice would very likely mean reduced US$ reserve holdings. Most of the 24 analysts in a recent Reuters poll expect Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE to join Kuwait in dropping their US$ peg as early as 2008. GCC rulers meet next week to discuss exchange rate policies.
Too much about this during this entire year. I wonder how it would affect the currencies. OK, several gazillions of trillions of dollars. But if they schedule this action for 10 years, we will have some 10 pips spikes here and there once and while...

Rumours are always put as if both China and OPEC are going to dump dollars as crazy on a given morning. I don't think this is the way shit like that works, is it?
  • #47
  • Edited 1:52pm Dec 3, 2007 1:51pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting cesarnc
Too much about this during this entire year. I wonder how it would affect the currencies. OK, several gazillions of trillions of dollars. But if they schedule this action for 10 years, we will have some 10 pips spikes here and there once and while...

Rumours are always put as if both China and OPEC are going to dump dollars as crazy on a given morning. I don't think this is the way shit like that works, is it?
Unfortunately it doesn't work that way (but then again if shit hits the ceiling, you can expect the big investors to start dumping the Yen). Don't forget, back in August, Iran asked the Japanese Government to be paid in Yen's.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #48
  • Dec 3, 2007 2:23pm Dec 3, 2007 2:23pm
And the snow ball keep growing:

"If the government freezes rates for troubled homeowners, expect legal challenges from mortgage investors, experts say. But do they have a case?"
- CNBC

Let me get this straight, we will move from subprime losses to subprime-related legal losses?



And then what? subprime-related cardiovascular breakdown lawsuits-related losses?

And then subprime-related-cardiovascular-breakdown-driven-divorce-related losses?

And then............

Oh, but we have Uncle Bernie to bail out everybody
  • #49
  • Edited 5:15pm Dec 3, 2007 2:52pm | Edited 5:15pm
Now for some real actionable news.

Does anyone have their tickets. If not, get your sleeping bag ready to camp out over night at your local Arena or your trigger finger for your speed dialer set for Ticketron.

You may never get the chance again.

Tickets you say... for what?

The Spice Girls Reunion Tour. Come on, the biggest thing since the Beatles reunited. Oh thats right, they never did and then poor John Lennon "left the building".

PS Wonder if they will want to be paid in Euros or Pounds or what

  • #50
  • Dec 3, 2007 2:56pm Dec 3, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting DutchTrader
There has been evidence for some time that Persian Gulf oil producers are edging toward a less firm currency link to the dollar. Arab News today carries a story entitled "AMF Chief Urges GCC States to Drop Dollar Peg." (AMF is Arab Monetary Fund. GCC is Gulf Cooperation Council.) AMF chief Al-Mannai argues that revaluations against the dollar won't solve the problem of inflation, and advises either a float or a peg to a currency basket. Either choice would very likely mean reduced US$ reserve holdings. Most of the 24 analysts in a recent Reuters poll expect Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE to join Kuwait in dropping their US$ peg as early as 2008. GCC rulers meet next week to discuss exchange rate policies.
I always had the impression that talks like this, are at first decided to implement and only after to start making it public.
This is an important decision that will hurt the dollar. From my little political knowledge, Arabians have strong relations with US.
Probably this decision will hurt their relationships


ps. very glad that someone opened a threat to discus such long term fundies, and how traders feel about it
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #51
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:00pm Dec 3, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting SunTrader
Now for some real actionable news.

Does anyone have their tickets. If not, get your sleeping bag ready to camp out over night at your local Arena or your trigger finger for your speed dialer set for Ticketron.

You may never get the chance again.

Tickets you say... for what?

The Spice Girls Reunion Tour. Come on, the biggest thing since the Beatles reunited. Oh thats right, they never did and then poor John Lennon "left the building".

PS Wonder if there will want to be paid in Euros or Pounds or what

US intel revelaed Iran halted Nuc-plans in 2003, Chaves got his ass kicked in Venezuela, now this. Spice Girls on the move...

Nature is not a moron. First species able speak a full-sentence and flush at the same time will take over this planet
  • #52
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:20pm Dec 3, 2007 3:20pm
long cable long cable...its good to be here Caesar,cable no more?
  • #53
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:27pm Dec 3, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting 30pips
long cable long cable...
Long cable long my http://xs3.xoospace.com/myspace/graphics/19625.gif

Those guys go like forex was just a roulette. I say IT'S RUSSIAN!!!!
  • #54
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:31pm Dec 3, 2007 3:31pm
lol...your graphics are always good.....btw....look at you post count...congrats!!!
  • #55
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:38pm Dec 3, 2007 3:38pm
8,000 post wrap-up

90% BS
10% meant to be serious, but not trustworthy.
  • #56
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:39pm Dec 3, 2007 3:39pm
Here's another not-so-trustworthy

Just noticed.... Anybody on this baby?
Attached Image
  • #57
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:50pm Dec 3, 2007 3:50pm
Nice chart Cesar. Clear, simple, and to the point. The way I like my charts.
No big data until Thursday, but this may be the time Euro is headed back up towards 1.5.
I would like more of a dip first though, to add some small long positions.
Is it just me, or does Posh Spice look like an alien now?
  • #58
  • Dec 3, 2007 4:00pm Dec 3, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
Long cable long my http://xs3.xoospace.com/myspace/graphics/19625.gif

Those guys go like forex was just a roulette. I say IT'S RUSSIAN!!!!
You always have some classics......don't you.
  • #59
  • Dec 3, 2007 4:12pm Dec 3, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
Long cable long my http://xs3.xoospace.com/myspace/graphics/19625.gif

Those guys go like forex was just a roulette. I say IT'S RUSSIAN!!!!
You know Cesar, I can always count on you to brighten my day. May the pips be with you!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #60
  • Dec 3, 2007 5:43pm Dec 3, 2007 5:43pm
Well a trendline using more recent swing lows looks like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD120307.jpg Size: 86 KB
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