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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

You talk the talk I walk the talk 8 replies

Attachments: Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #81
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  • Dec 4, 2007 1:23pm Dec 4, 2007 1:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
"Senso comum", as we say... Totally agree... But I'm not moving it to the 1KT, not for now...

Well, on the market: a fresh blow

In a fresh blow to the financial sector, JP Morgan Chase cut the earnings estimates for several big Wall Street firms, sending their shares sharply lower.

Also Turtle brought up Canada cutting rates, which was pretty surprising... But I still don't see BOE doing the same...

On me, still running a short GJ with SL locked for 70 pips. NIcotina's strategy.
I would also agree, the Canadians, being liberal in a sense, cut rates whereas the British, with their stiff upper lip, are a little more conservative.

I do however see a surprise with the vote.
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  • #82
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:26pm Dec 4, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting Ash
I would also agree, the Canadians, being liberal in a sense, cut rates whereas the British, with their stiff upper lip, are a little more conservative.

I do however see a surprise with the vote.
On the vote, me, too... But the vote-to-statement period is enough to price in the market's bias, imo...

I don't see fireworks for next BOE statement, if comes no-change. Also Trichet's press conferences are not moving the market for quite some time...

All in all, looks like the entire market is holding. Some movement will be seen after the rate statement, much more on people getting back to the market than reacting to the Central Bank's BS's
  • #83
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:28pm Dec 4, 2007 1:28pm
Ash, cesar,

Market's been wanting to long U/C for a bit now, so imvho 1.0400/1.0500 with a good NFP. Just my .2 pips
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #84
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:35pm Dec 4, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Ash, cesar,

Market's been wanting to long U/C for a bit now, so imvho 1.0400/1.0500 with a good NFP. Just my .2 pips
NFP can drive a man crazy LOL...

But lately, I've seen the reaction is being more consistent in the stock market, thus, in the carry trades rather than in the dollar pairs.

That "Bad news is good news stuff".

For instance, a bad NFP is likely to boost the stock market (& carry trades) on renewed cut hopes, for next week. Much easier to catch up with GJ instead.

Well, this is what I'm on.
  • #85
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:44pm Dec 4, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting cesarnc

Also Turtle brought up Canada cutting rates, which was pretty surprising... But I still don't see BOE doing the same...

BOE probably won't cut rates this time....but the "speculation" is driving cable longs crazy......

That's what I love about this market......."SPECULATION"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HOLLA
  • #86
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 1:47pm Dec 4, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Ash, cesar,

Market's been wanting to long U/C for a bit now, so imvho 1.0400/1.0500 with a good NFP. Just my .2 pips
I totally agree with you. We should get a preview (sense of direction) tomorrow with the ADP report.
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  • #87
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:39pm Dec 4, 2007 3:39pm
Tripple top, new top or trendline crack?

Up to Fed, as it seems...

For the currencies, another lackluster session... Nothing fancy for tomorrow, either....
Attached Image
  • #88
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:45pm Dec 4, 2007 3:45pm
Quoting cesarnc
Tripple top, new top or trendline crack?

Up to Fed, as it seems...

For the currencies, another lackluster session... Nothing fancy for tomorrow, either....
Tommorow's ADP Forecast is @ 50k, if it turns out to be negative (which is highly likely as unemployment is increasing) we might see UY go down and the Euro to back into the 1.48xx range. What do you think Cesar & Dutch Trader?
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  • #89
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:57pm Dec 4, 2007 3:48pm | Edited 3:57pm
Bin Laden Considered Harming Japanese Economy In 2001

12/4/2007 3:46:32 PM Al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden considered sabotaging Japan's economy in 2001 by attacking oil tankers approaching the country, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported Tuesday, quoting a former member of the terrorist group.

http://www.rttnews.com/apps/deskaler.../2007&item=824

Make's me think, why come out with this now? Is this some type of conspiracy to weaken then Yen? :
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  • #90
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  • Dec 4, 2007 3:51pm Dec 4, 2007 3:51pm
ECB rate hike would push the Euro through the huge 1.5 barrier. I can smell it...
  • #91
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:52pm Dec 4, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting Ash
Tommorow's ADP Forecast is @ 50k, if it turns out to be negative (which is highly likely as unemployment is increasing) we might see UY go down and the Euro to back into the 1.48xx range. What do you think Cesar & Dutch Trader?
ADP is not a mover, since it has failed miserably (like months ago) to anticipate the NFP's result.

Market doesn't react to it for a long time, HOWEVER, everybody keeps the post-it in on the monitor just in case.

European session is likely to be more volatile tomorrow on positioning ahead of the ECB and BOE rate statement. Note how furiously EURGBP moved today (almost 100 pips). This is usually positioning ahead of a major event.
  • #92
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:03pm Dec 4, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting Ash
Bin Laden Considered Harming Japanese Economy In 2001

12/4/2007 3:46:32 PM Al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden considered sabotaging Japan's economy in 2001 by attacking oil tankers approaching the country, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported Tuesday, quoting a former member of the terrorist group.

http://www.rttnews.com/apps/deskaler.../2007&item=824

Make's me think, why come out with this now? Is this some type of conspiracy to weaken then Yen? :
Wierd...

Specially coupled with yesterday's news that also popped out of the blue saying Iran quit nuclear-bomb developmento in 2003...

Said this was released by US intel...
  • #93
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:07pm Dec 4, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
Wierd...

Specially coupled with yesterday's news that also popped out of the blue saying Iran quit nuclear-bomb developmento in 2003...

Said this was released by US intel...
Yeah, why all this now? As far as Iran is concerned, everyone toned down their threats and oil prices came down and now this news about the yen???
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  • #94
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:27pm Dec 4, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting cesarnc
European session is likely to be more volatile tomorrow on positioning ahead of the ECB and BOE rate statement. Note how furiously EURGBP moved today (almost 100 pips). This is usually positioning ahead of a major event.
I agree.. The big boys must have smelled something fishy to happen to either of these european currencies. This move has nothing to do with USD weakness/strength at all nor is it related to any Oil/Iran conflict.

The consensus for BoE is on-hold - this is the perfect setup for a surprise just like what happened to the surprise BoC rate decision today. From TTN, 5 "shadow MPC" voted for a cut with some voting for as much as 50bps cut.
  • #95
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:34pm Dec 4, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting BurgerKing
The consensus for BoE is on-hold - this is the perfect setup for a surprise just like what happened to the surprise BoC rate decision today. From TTN, 5 "shadow MPC" voted for a cut with some voting for as much as 50bps cut.
YEEOOWW, that's huge

Ok, let's speculate, on a surprising CUT, what's for GBPUSD? 300 pips down in 2 days?

Came up with this number because that's what happened in the month after the surprising hike, when the market was expecting another hike and it came out no-change. 150 pips at the news, straight shoot / sleep / wake-up, another 150 pips down... (March, if I'm not mistaken)
  • #96
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  • Dec 4, 2007 4:37pm Dec 4, 2007 4:37pm
Weekly Dow - I am watching the 89 XMA which has been good support zone:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow120407.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #97
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:04pm Dec 4, 2007 4:49pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
YEEOOWW, that's huge

Ok, let's speculate, on a surprising CUT, what's for GBPUSD? 300 pips down in 2 days?

Came up with this number because that's what happened in the month after the surprising hike, when the market was expecting another hike and it came out no-change. 150 pips at the news, straight shoot / sleep / wake-up, another 150 pips down... (March, if I'm not mistaken)
In January when they raised it .25, the pound shot up almost 600 pips in 9 trading days........YIKES!!!!!!

But, I would say down to the 0350-0380 area if there is a cut, since that was the barrier in October.

Then....a wait to see what the FOMC would do....what if Ben decided to hold????????

Boy that would cause the markets to go crazy.....it would be raining pips for Christmas.......

HOLLA
  • #98
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:05pm Dec 4, 2007 5:05pm
This Report was Prepared by Andy Borrowitz

Kim Jong-Il Kicks Iran out of Axis of Evil

Nukeless Nation ‘Not Evil Enough,’ Says Korean Madman


One day after a National Intelligence Estimate revealed that Iran halted its nuclear arms program in 2003, North Korean president Kim Jong-Il ejected Iran from the Axis of Evil, calling them “not evil enough.”

A visibly furious Kim called a press conference in Pyongyang today to excoriate the Iranians as “evildoer wannabes” and “pussies.”

“I can’t tell you how many times Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looked me in the eye, told me he was developing nuclear weapons, and cackled like a madman,” Kim said. “That man does not deserve to cackle.”

Kim added that when Iran was admitted into the Axis of Evil in 2002, “they knew the rules: no nukes, no membership.”

The National Intelligence Estimate, Kim said, showed that Iran was not holding up their end of the bargain: “They said they were enriching uranium and all the while they were going all Libya on my ass.”

In the first step towards formally removing Iran from the evil organization, the North Korean strongman said he was “un-inviting” Mr. Ahmadinejad from the Axis of Evil’s winter golf outing in Scottsdale, Arizona.

In a terse statement from Mr. Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president said he would agree not to attend the outing but wanted his deposit back.

As for who would take Iran’s place in the Axis of Evil, Kim said there was no shortage of candidates: “Right now we’re looking at Venezuela, Syria, and Rupert Murdoch.”

Elsewhere, natural honey is a more effective remedy for children’s coughs than over-the-counter medicines, according to a study commissioned by the National Association of Bees.

Sign up today for your own Borowitz Reports.
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  • #99
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:04pm Dec 4, 2007 6:04pm
RBA held, with a dovish statement, let's watch Eur/Aud. Usd/Cad to 1.0500
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #100
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:16pm Dec 4, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting DutchTrader
RBA held, with a dovish statement, let's watch Eur/Aud. Usd/Cad to 1.0500
It's going to be interesting this rate statement shootout. There was a month when New Zeland raised and the entire world dumped the dollar in new "global hike cycle initiating" sentiment...

NZD coming tomorrow...

Whatever the outcome from NZD, BOE and ECB, a "global cut cycle on credit crisis" is not out of the table.
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