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Trading the Edge of Chaos -GBP/USD

  • #81
  • Nov 29, 2007 7:40am Nov 29, 2007 7:40am
I lost track of fundamentals here
Not my strongest area.

I will stick to entry above 2.0640
housing data is still coming
  • #82
  • Nov 29, 2007 9:10am Nov 29, 2007 9:10am
New Home Sales fall below forecast.

Currently market did not react to it
immediately

London bearish attitude still playing out.

I am on the side line
above 2.0640, I will consider buying as planned.

if not there is nothing we can do about it
Whose market is it anyway?
  • #83
  • Nov 29, 2007 10:20pm Nov 29, 2007 10:20pm
Yesterday predicted chaos finally gave about 45pips
after Fed Chairman's speech. That is from the edge of
chaos:

So what is the trick:
-----------
All chaos systems are behavioral and deterministic: financial chaos is no exception. This means that if you use chaos, you know exactly what the market want to do, where it want to turns, and extent it will turn. It is like a crystal ball. You will know what a pair will do when London opens and when New York opens and closes. If it does not follow that behaviour, you know that the market is misbehaving and you will know what to do to avoid ruins.
-------------------

This is the same as :

“If we knew exactly the laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment we could predict exactly the situation of that same universe at a succeeding moment.” - Henri Poincaré, Father of Chaos theory.
---------------------------


Today's commentary:


There will be no commentary today as I will am going out
of town for some few days to attend funeral services of my
late father in law

The commentary will resume Monday/Tuesday.

I have uploaded new file on FAQ. These are real questions
people are asking about financial chaos methods.

__________________
To get it just subscribe below!
  • #84
  • Dec 3, 2007 12:33am Dec 3, 2007 12:33am
I did not trade last Friday.
The first thing I did when I returned from my travel is
to trace the end of Friday's chaos and I entered to buy.

For several hours the trade has not given more than
6pips as at the time of writing this. I will remain
with this trade until after London opens.
-------------------------------------

General Chaos = Bearish.
Areas of critical point that may affect price behaviours
are show on the graph below

a). 2.0636, represent a bearish turning point if it does not turned
at 2.0610
b) if 2.0636 is breached chaos will turn bullish until the upper edge of chaos (2.0672)
c): Take note upper edge is adjusted to 2.0672 not 2.0737

If unable to move above 2.0610 after London, I will close
buy and sell to the lower edge of chaos 2.0473/2.0436
Attached Image
  • #85
  • Dec 3, 2007 12:37am Dec 3, 2007 12:37am
Quoting fxbroker
I did not trade last Friday.
The first thing I did when I returned from my travel is
to trace the end of Friday's chaos and I entered to buy.

For several hours the trade has not given more than
6pips as at the time of writing this. I will remain
with this trade until after London opens.
-------------------------------------

General Chaos = Bearish.
Areas of critical point that may affect price behaviours
are show on the graph below

a). 2.0636, represent a bearish turning point if it does not turned
at 2.0610
b) if 2.0636 is breached chaos will turn bullish until the upper edge of chaos (2.0672)
c): Take note upper edge is adjusted to 2.0672 not 2.0737

If unable to move above 2.0610 after London, I will close
buy and sell to the lower edge of chaos 2.0473/2.0436
Before I finished posting the trade actually moved as predicted
but I will be looking at a break above 2.0610 and remain bullish
until after London opens.
  • #86
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:07am Dec 3, 2007 1:07am
Quoting fxbroker
Before I finished posting the trade actually moved as predicted
but I will be looking at a break above 2.0610 and remain bullish
until after London opens.

A touch of 2.0610 was fast, but that is not a break
from here I will manage and consolidate pips +40pip
below 2.0602
  • #87
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:22am Dec 3, 2007 1:22am
I have liquidated 56 pips.
Why? I need quick pips since I did
not trade on Friday.

But my outlook has not change but I
will wait till London opens
  • #88
  • Dec 3, 2007 1:38am Dec 3, 2007 1:38am
Quoting fxbroker
I did not trade last Friday.
The first thing I did when I returned from my travel is
to trace the end of Friday's chaos and I entered to buy.

For several hours the trade has not given more than
6pips as at the time of writing this. I will remain
with this trade until after London opens.
-------------------------------------

General Chaos = Bearish.
Areas of critical point that may affect price behaviours
are show on the graph below

a). 2.0636, represent a bearish turning point if it does not turned
at 2.0610
b) if 2.0636 is breached chaos will turn bullish until the upper edge of chaos (2.0672)
c): Take note upper edge is adjusted to 2.0672 not 2.0737

If unable to move above 2.0610 after London, I will close
buy and sell to the lower edge of chaos 2.0473/2.0436

Nothing changes my outlook except waiting
for London to open.

Sell below 2.0636 or below 2.0610: better
from 2.0636 downward if initial condition favours
bearish trend today.

Or else I will go bullish from above 2.0636 to 2.0672
  • #89
  • Dec 3, 2007 2:06am Dec 3, 2007 2:06am
I have taken a bearish stand as shown by the graph for
today. I will be aiming at the lower edge, since I have
already consolidated 56pips.

But trade need to break 2.0576 and then
2.0545 before bearish chaos can be sustained

I wish you happy trading
  • #90
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:16am Dec 3, 2007 3:16am
Quoting fxbroker
I have taken a bearish stand as shown by the graph for
today. I will be aiming at the lower edge, since I have
already consolidated 56pips.

But trade need to break 2.0576 and then
2.0545 before bearish chaos can be sustained

I wish you happy trading
Trade behave as predicted so far.
But there should be a better clearance
away from 2.0546 before one can be confident
that we will get to lower edge quickly.

There is fundamental news coming up
( Manufacturing PMI) in less than 20mins from now.

Previous was 52.9
forecast = 52.5
if data is 52.5 or below, this sell should continue
to lower edge. if it is above 52.9, I will close my
trade and watch the market reaction to the news.

Currently my stoploss is at 2.0594 - 1 pip profit.
  • #91
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:34am Dec 3, 2007 3:34am
Quoting fxbroker
Trade behave as predicted so far.
But there should be a better clearance
away from 2.0546 before one can be confident
that we will get to lower edge quickly.

There is fundamental news coming up
( Manufacturing PMI) in less than 20mins from now.

Previous was 52.9
forecast = 52.5
if data is 52.5 or below, this sell should continue
to lower edge. if it is above 52.9, I will close my
trade and watch the market reaction to the news.

Currently my stoploss is at 2.0594 - 1 pip profit.

Position liquidated at 46pips
46+56 =102
I will be looking forward to sell again
Today is bearish chaos
  • #92
  • Dec 3, 2007 3:42am Dec 3, 2007 3:42am
General chaos Outlook: still bearish

ECB President Trichet Speaking right now.

I have stepped aside of the market
at the moment.

Trade set up has gone to the original
graph - pls check this graph for today.

I will be looking to sell at any favourable
level with tight stop loss,
  • #93
  • Dec 3, 2007 4:49am Dec 3, 2007 4:49am
WARNING

Ideally I would love to sell from 2.0636 but I am not in at the moment

1. Internal structure of this current chaos is showing uprising
bullish fractal patterns from 5mins frame to daily time frame.

2. Hourly has thrown in a strong reversal candle pattern, though
this is irrelevant to me. If it breaks 2.0636, bullish may prevail

3. Upcoming news supporting this sentiment is as follow


ISM Manufacturing Index

forecast = 50.5
Previous = 50.9

If fall below 50.5 bullish may continue
If it is higher than 50.9 sell may continue

According FF a rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency.

This is why I will prefer to enter sell at
2.0636 and sell below it, with stop loss
at that level. but meanwhile I will prefer
to watch the market even it means not
trading again today.
  • #94
  • Dec 3, 2007 4:50am Dec 3, 2007 4:50am
Quoting fxbroker
WARNING

Ideally I would love to sell from 2.0636 but I am not in at the moment

1. Internal structure of this current chaos is showing uprising
bullish fractal patterns from 5mins frame to daily time frame.

2. Hourly has thrown in a strong reversal candle pattern, though
this is irrelevant to me. If it breaks 2.0636, bullish may prevail

3. Upcoming news supporting this sentiment is as follow


ISM Manufacturing Index

forecast = 50.5
Previous = 50.9

If fall below 50.5 bullish may continue
If it is higher than 50.9 sell may continue

According FF a rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency.

This is why I will prefer to enter sell at
2.0636 and sell below it, with stop loss
at that level. but meanwhile I will prefer
to watch the market even it means not
trading again today.
The warning was ok, and market actually overtook
my posting.
  • #95
  • Dec 3, 2007 5:27am Dec 3, 2007 5:27am
I am still maintaining my original outlook (bearish) for today
unless proved otherwise by the upcoming news.

So what?

1. if news is good for sell the market will give us opportunity to enter sell
at 2.0653 and trade below or below 2.0610 (see first graph of the day)

2. If news will favour buy, the market will give us opportunity to buy from
above 2.0621, or 2.0610
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dec3a.JPG Size: 39 KB
  • #96
  • Dec 3, 2007 8:45am Dec 3, 2007 8:45am
Quoting fxbroker

General Chaos = Bearish.
Areas of critical point that may affect price behaviours
are show on the graph below

a). 2.0636, represent a bearish turning point if it does not turned
at 2.0610
b) if 2.0636 is breached chaos will turn bullish until the upper edge of chaos (2.0672)
c): Take note upper edge is adjusted to 2.0672 not 2.0737

If unable to move above 2.0610 after London, I will close
buy and sell to the lower edge of chaos 2.0473/2.0436

I am still not in the trade again.

I will wait for the news or may wait till
everything cool off if it is not going to sell below
2.0636

If I missed entry, I will wait. Tomorrow is another day.
  • #97
  • Dec 3, 2007 9:08am Dec 3, 2007 9:08am
Quoting fxbroker



ISM Manufacturing Index

forecast = 50.5
Previous = 50.9

If fall below 50.5 bullish may continue
If it is higher than 50.9 sell may continue

According FF a rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency.
Both conditions failed

I am out for a while.

2.0630 is a strong buy fractal
however, initial upper limit of the
day has been hit.

Below 2.0630 may offer sell
but I will rather wait and consolidate
my 100pips.
  • #98
  • Dec 4, 2007 12:25am Dec 4, 2007 12:25am
General Outlook today = Bullish

From the lower edge to upper Edge see graph

Detailed report maybe given after London open

Currently I am selling to Lower Edge.
from 2.0639 : stop loss 2.0650

I will place another pending order to buy
from lower edge to upper edge.
Attached Image
  • #99
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:05am Dec 4, 2007 2:05am
Quoting fxbroker
General Outlook today = Bullish

From the lower edge to upper Edge see graph

Detailed report maybe given after London open

Currently I am selling to Lower Edge.
from 2.0639 : stop loss 2.0650

I will place another pending order to buy
from lower edge to upper edge.
My Outlook has not changed. until trade breached
lower edge of chaos, I am back into sell again.
  • #100
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:10am Dec 4, 2007 2:10am
Quoting fxbroker
My Outlook has not changed. until trade breached
lower edge of chaos, I am back into sell again.
Sell need to break below 2.0623 to be sustained.
If it swerve above 2.0671, this will nullified current
bearish mood. So I careful at the moment.
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