GbpUsd Statistical Probability With Price Action

Possible break below the daily 61.8 fib

Its made a strong surge from last weeks low of 2.0257 to new 25 year highs.

Five bullish days. Possible top heaving. See previous post for weekly fib retracements probabilities.

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DAR GbpUsd

GbpUsd Daily range probabilities

Blue line is the daily range of motion for the last 40 days and the pink line is DAR for the year.

Pink line is the daily range of motion for the last 41 to 80 days blue line is the DAR for 2007.

WAR

Blue line is the weekly range of motion for the weeks of the year. The pink line is the moving average for year based previous weeks total divided by the number of weeks. For example after week 5 the WAR was 332. This is based on adding the 5 weeks range of motion together and dividing by 5.

Week 1 487
Week 2 346
Week 3 206
Week 4 355
Week 5 266

Total 1660/5 = 332

Post 45 starts updated information for the GbpUsd.

Finding continue support at the weekly 21 ema. See posts 10,23,33.

Bouncing off of the daily 89 ema and support line as well as the 50 fib of fib from a major daily pivot to the high of 2.1116 on 11/8/07.

On the weekly from a 4hr perspective it has bounced off of the weekly 61.8 fib. Note the probabilities of the GbpUsd retracing to these levels on a weekly basis or the week there after. This past week it retraced to these levels the same week.

Note that the weekly fib retracements for 2007 and 2006 are about the same with the exception of the 61.8 fib level.

Another look at the monthly PA for the last few years. No major correction since the Nov 2004 to Nov 2005 correction.

Post 45 starts the updated information.

Daily Fib retracements for GbpUsd. These percentages are based on it retracing to these fib levels the day of, or the day after the days high and low is established. Also there is a 7 pip tolerance meaning that if it comes with in 7 pips of that fib level it is considered a touch. Bottom line on a daily basis there is a high probability of 2 steps forward 1 step back and so on and so on.

One of my favorite fib levels is when price retraces 27% beyond the low or high. It may constitute a Butterfly pattern or what I have named a "Rip Tide Reversal", If price has moved over 50% beyond ATR and hits that level, trade it. Especially if London is closing. If it does this at London Open or early Europe, and pulls back above/below high/low and holds, trade it!!
27% is your friend!
Houdini, CTA

Statistical probabilities for Fib Retracements for this year and 2006. Pretty much the same with some variation at the 50 and 61.8 fib. These numbers are based on a 7 pip tolerance of the currency retracing to these fib levels that day or the next day after the high and low is established.