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Bash that system!!!

  • #21
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:03am Nov 25, 2007 5:03am
At the amount of money I make in a week, I do not need recognition, nor do I need money for anything.

All I intend to say here is that fx is about hard work to learn the basics.

Indicators are useless, this is a fact.


If you try to learn what others are doing then better say goodbye to fx trading, your own effort is what matters.

Being a systems analyst, I have always tried to design my own indicators, maybe this is one reason why I ended up at this level.

I am able to enter a trade at just 3 or 4 pips into a new trend start and travel with the trade right till the exit.

I am able to choose my own earnings target for the week.

Basics: work hard, understand the charts technicals -- news trading is rubbish
  • #22
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:04am Nov 25, 2007 5:04am
Quoting tdion
What is the problem with this idea?

You are entering AFTER the majority of the move has taken place. You missed the boat! You hop on board after the pips have been made by others, and shouldn't be suprised to be stopped out quickly after you got your signal.
UNLESS it is the big move.

MA crosses are a trend following system. With this type of system you will be in the market most or all of the time, and will have a high percentage of losing trades (ranging market). However, you will always catch the big moves, so the winning trades are large. It can be a winning strategy over time.

It's not my trading style, but that is the basis of trend following systems.
  • #23
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:07am Nov 25, 2007 5:07am
Gold as an example moved 2114 pips approximately on friday and I was able to collect 2110 pips out of this move in a single trade.
  • #24
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:13am Nov 25, 2007 5:13am
Monday trade will see Gold at 839.83 as per northfinance servers, this value varies as per trading platform, based on math calculations.
  • #25
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:25am Nov 25, 2007 5:25am
Quoting forexlion
Gold as an example moved 2114 pips approximately on friday and I was able to collect 2110 pips out of this move in a single trade.
Because you bought the daily inside bar break(I got NF, too) or because you have an excel sheet saying "if bar x moves y amount of pips and exceeds range z, then the next bar / price must do ..."?

I vaguely recall a handful of people using ranges, price "levels" and certain movement conditions to estimate likely price targets / ranges.

If you know whether UJ and GJ will make new lows eventually next week, now THAT I would really love to know

But sounds a bit more day to day based?

How close am I with the excel sheet / movement criteria guess?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #26
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:32am Nov 25, 2007 5:32am
None at all, I do not use excel or bars

GBPUSD opening trade on monday will be 2.0669 as per northfinance servers.


Ask me for Monday trades for any pair and confirm the same in 24 hours.
  • #27
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:35am Nov 25, 2007 5:35am
Monday opening EURUSD trade will be 1.4897
  • #28
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:39am Nov 25, 2007 5:39am
Honestly?

If you trade GBPJPY alone, the negative swap of your short positions could kill your profit in a downward market.

Hey man, I'm not here to judge anyone's system.... and honestly, do you really expect me to be able to comment on your system when you don't share it?

Quoting th_ngue21
Hi there,

I think my trading system is great and it is completely mechanical.
My system:

- 20% win ratio
- 8/1 and 17/1 reward to risk ratio
- Volatility below the 1 per month
- Avarage total loss of 700 pips a month

What do you think? Did you see any weakness in my trading system? How much money do you think I make with this trading system?
  • #29
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:45am Nov 25, 2007 5:45am
Why are you posting crap like this? Do you think this is your own journal?

Tell us about your losses then..... not just the one big winner.

I get tired of the "so called" experts on this forum. There's only one rule to go by..... Jerry McGuire SHOW ME THE MONEEEEEEEEEEEY........

That means showing EVERY trade on live reports......

Quoting forexlion
Gold as an example moved 2114 pips approximately on friday and I was able to collect 2110 pips out of this move in a single trade.
  • #30
  • Nov 25, 2007 5:57am Nov 25, 2007 5:57am
Quoting tdion
Honestly?

If you trade GBPJPY alone, the negative swap of your short positions could kill your profit in a downward market.

Hey man, I'm not here to judge anyone's system.... and honestly, do you really expect me to be able to comment on your system when you don't share it?
What do I get for to share my completely system? First, nothing and second, No respect!

If you read some great post here on FF, you see that nobody can trade with others succesfull trading system. So I dont think my trading system works with you too.

And btw... I have a profitable system, I trade the euro, and I make big gains %%.
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #31
  • Nov 25, 2007 6:00am Nov 25, 2007 6:00am
Why are you asking me "Does my system have weakness?" when I all I can do is judge what you post?

Quoting th_ngue21
What do I get for to share my completely system? First, nothing and second, No respect!

If you read some great post here on FF, you see that nobody can trade with others succesfull trading system. So I dont think my trading system works with you too.

And btw... I have a profitable system, I trade the euro, and I make big gains %%.
22 year old fund manager, huh? Where is the website for the fund? I'd love to look at your company's website for ACTUAL returns.... not backtests.

"I make big gains%%" Talk is cheap SHOW ME THE MONEEEEEEEEY ***live track records with real money***
  • #32
  • Nov 25, 2007 6:11am Nov 25, 2007 6:11am
Before anyone else decides to hype their own systems, I advise you to set up an account at Tradency or Collective2, so that your systems will speak for themselves.
  • #33
  • Nov 25, 2007 6:11am Nov 25, 2007 6:11am
Quoting tdion
Why are you asking me "Does my system have weakness?" when I all I can do is judge what you post.

22 year old fund manager, huh? Where is the website for the fund? I'd love to look at your company's website for ACTUAL returns.

"I make big gains%%" Talk is cheap SHOW ME THE MONEEEEEEEEY ***track records*****


Look, I am a fund manager of my own borrowed money, family and friends money. I have a total of $7,000. Not much. I dont have a company, because I am still a full time student.

Show you my tracks records, so you can backtest my entry and exits points and indentify my mechanical trading setups? No thank you!

I though you are a smart trader, indentify systems weakness quick, but no, you think there arenīt experts walking here arround.
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #34
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:13am Nov 25, 2007 7:13am
That's really great if someone can identify a bad system and tell why this system is supposed to lose but I am wondering this has given you a chance to deveop a system which REALLY works?


By the way I have read so much about fibonacci retracements here on FF , I am wondering if someone could explain to me why they are supposed to work? Sorry I still don't get it
  • #35
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:17am Nov 25, 2007 7:17am
I also like a high risk/reward. I like also like strategies that are conservative and lock in profits incrementally. Also, a strategy that is prepared for sudden unexpected moves.
  • #36
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:20am Nov 25, 2007 7:20am
Quoting forexlion
Monday opening EURUSD trade will be 1.4897

That and the cable price level are just the .618s of the last mini-swing down.

Gimme more of a miracle than that

Like I said, I'm currently only interested in UJ and GJ anyhow

Even with paying swap for over a month shorting the carry is paying out just fine so far

Swap is such a minor detail I don't know why anyone in retail would find it a factor. Being strongly leveraged in this market(50:1 here ) means price movement matters exponentially more.

As for the topic: a "system" needs to tell me where to put my stop with a REASON and allow me to understand what the market is doing preferably

Key factor always is and will be a favorable risk vs reward imho. Even though some approaches focus more on win/loss. Really there's no way you can generalize anything. Discretionary traders are good at what they do, because they are who they are. If you can make it work it will work. That's really the bottom line, literally.

And for the myth makers: yes mechanical systems exist that work(I always cite the vegas 4h tunnel), but you need to be able to actually trade like that
I can't stand just obeying something blindly, it NEVER worked for me.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #37
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:21am Nov 25, 2007 7:21am
Quoting tdion
Care to enlighten us on what you mean by a binomial distribution?

I don't want go into detail, maybe a write about when I have more time, but just to say I like to think of the movement of price in statistical terms rather than absolute. This keeps me from concerning myself about being right all the time. A system will be aware of a market phenomena which skews the price distribution in such a manner that it can be taken advantage of by an astute trader.
In trading you are only as smart as your dumbest mistake. - Ralph Vince
  • #38
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:27am Nov 25, 2007 7:27am
Fibs are an old wives tale. Sometimes they appear to work (IT WORKED IT WORKED!) and sometimes they don't. The problem is picking a timeframe to trade them in. If everyone acted on them in the same timeframe, we'd see more predictiveness....... such is the Forex market.....

As for "have I developed a winning system...." I'll say that if you can create a LOOOOONG backtest where you don't get crushed, and take into account swap premiums and spreads, then you may have something.

Some people call this curve fitting. I don't really know what else you can do except backtest your ideas, curve fit or not. The only "sure way" to make money is to have knowledge of events that trigger selloffs and buys.... such as stop runs by banks, or impacting news events. EG) When we practically knew that the interest rates would lower (in the US) that was a green fundamental signal to short the dollar IMHO.

Of course, I am no advisor, and these are opinions.

Quoting fx_amateur
That's really great if someone can identify a bad system and tell why this system is supposed to lose but I am wondering this has given you a chance to deveop a system which REALLY works?


By the way I have read so much about fibonacci retracements here on FF , I am wondering if someone could explain to me why they are supposed to work? Sorry I still don't get it
  • #39
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:31am Nov 25, 2007 7:31am
Would such a trade be called an "irrational move" as coined by Cornelious of "Trading in 8 Pairs?" Such a move might be on October 5, 2007 on the EURUSD when there was no impacting news (that I am aware of).....

Note the immediate retracement on the H1 chart....

Quoting SliverB
I don't want go into detail, maybe a write about when I have more time, but just to say I like to think of the movement of price in statistical terms rather than absolute. This keeps me from concerning myself about being right all the time. A system will be aware of a market phenomena which skews the price distribution in such a manner that it can be taken advantage of by an astute trader.
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  • #40
  • Nov 25, 2007 7:53am Nov 25, 2007 7:53am
Hey tdion, please check my simple system (see my signature). I've backtested it only back to 2004 but it did well since then.

BTW: Personally I don't use any stops and don't fail. My secret? Low leverage.

Regards - Xaron
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