This weeks GBP/JPY Analysis & Predictions

Referring back to the post above

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post1691636

Target has essentially been hit in the 221/220 region as called from 241 so another 1000 pip call in the bag. I am expecting a reversal from 221.83 (88.6% on the daily high to low - already hit) to 220.52 (purple line). As usual, I'll scale into longs. Target is about 2500 pips up to the 244/245 region. I don't mind holding onto these as the positive interest is nice. http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

Also, should the 220.52 region break I will consider reversing my positions short for a long journey south. But as usual, whilst within the support area, I'll remain long. It may take some time to exhaust all of the bears.

Oops, that was not the post I should have referred to as it was another 1000 pip call (that had completed over a week ago). The correct ones are here.

Call was made for a short reversal from 231.5 to 232.7 with an actual of 232.39. Target was 221.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post1713305
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post1715058

I'm thinking once we break 222.8 then the long should be good. First target is around 224.00, second around 228.00, third around 241.06 and then the final target around 244/245. I'll take some off at each target, re-enter on the bounce and adjust stops (to lock in more profit) once it breaks.

Here is a potential bullish wedge. I don't expect price to go too far below the two bottom purple lines, each providing strong support (at 220.70 and 220.52)!

hi zoran,
i've been looking all over the place for a mentor or someone that can guide me as far as the gbp/jpy pair is concern. i'm fairly new in the business and just discovered this thread not long ago. i'm impressed that you are so willing to share what you know and making trade calls that make sense.

i went long at 222.00. let's see what happens. and i'm always willing to learn. i look forward to more insights from you.

thank you.

fd

I'd like to go back to a post I made about 3 months ago and I have referred to it on numerous occasions.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987

That chart has now completed and I would like to go over it in a little more detail. It was originally drawn as what I saw to be the natural reversal points at that time. I was expecting it to complete a lot quicker but as usual, my timing isn't very good.

Points 1, 2, 3 and 4 completed fairly quickly with half of point 5 before we reached a summer range (purple rectangle). That range concluded with a symmetrical triange (blue) that broke north (as expected from a continuation pattern). The apex of the triangle formed an area of support and resistance (thin orange rectangle) so when point 5 completed and reversed, it bounced off that support (orange area) to make point 5 double top.

As it came down the second time from point 5, I was expecting another smaller bounce off it before finally breaking but it closed within it on a Friday and opened with a gap out of it on the Sunday. Price somehow snuck through whilst everyone was sleeping and I got a slap on the face and learnt a nice lesson. It was the second time I had seen something like that happen. So the gap closed and bounced back off the orange rectangle to complete point 6 and the chart.

Initially I was about 200 pips off the reversal points but I managed to refine it and getting to between 30 and 70 pips off the last few reversals. Now when considering that each produced 1000+ pips, I don't think that's too bad.

Charts attached of how it all worked out.

I also made the following post around 3 months ago (a few days after the one above).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post1572117

This is what I am expecting now. A rise up to 244/245 and then the final decision to be made around there. Point 6 on the previous chart is marked on this one - indicating where we are now.

On that note, I have decided not to post in this thread any longer and I will probably only occasionally post in the Daily GBP/JPY analysis thread. All the best.

hey fatdragon88......the gbp/jpy follows the us yen, so do an elliott wave look on that pair!......elliott waves say three pushes with two small pullbacks in an impulse wave, or trend wave!...google elliott waves for a quick and simple rule overview. ..see a yen chart long term, say a four hour chart. looks like confused moves and no valid wave count, or maybe time for a move up (A), then down (B) then up big time. 124.xx calling or above 117.xx any way.......nope.......on the bigger picture.....the fall from 124.00 on a daily chart......figure what the roof on this pullback to the topside would be!....and then......!........!.......this pullback is a textbook wave four........and then, you be the one to post it, i'll be watching! best regards