Elliott Wave Counting with EG

It seems like we might have another chance to launch some longs...if this one fails then the H and S pattern would certainly hold...

Sorry all. My mind seems not working right now.

I can't find a good wave count to present after that weekend analysis basically failed.

Back to my books now.

EG

Hey Daytek...

Thank you for posting your chart here. I hope to see more of your chart...


Ok.... Here is what I see in the GBPJPY now

EG

Alternative counts

Tomorrow is an american holiday so i dont have an intraday plan but it could be an interesting day to see what will develop for the future...see if the current levels are holding or if it is time to seek more possibilities.

Hello evryone, we have new site with ELLIOTT analyses on

http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm ,
so for now you can check my predictions on this link

There are the similar analyses like i posted here, with explanations for different pairs.

Nice day.

Attached Charts

Below are my current charts for this weekend and for next week.

Let us see how these charts will perform..

EG

alternative

replacing f

I did not notice I had not yet moved the iv wave label.

seems like market will be in correction till closing or will have the start of the move down again.

Price will probably have a GAP Down by Monday Open ASIA to finish the Sub wave 3 down of the final wave 5 then

Wednesday a wave 34 retracement then a Friday Plunge.

End of the month.
EG

New LOW is made

So I need to change the count on the 15min.

That means I need to re work all the charts I made above till the 1 hr chart.

Lookd like this is the the wave 3 inside a wave 3 of a wave 5.

EG

Suggested TP Levels if this continues down:

Daily S3 @ 220.44
Weekly S2 @ 219.69

and if it still breaks above level.... next I see is weekly S3 @ 215.48

Some how, if this does fall below 220.44... I am favoring 219.69 then expext a retrace... thus cancelling current weekly S3 as the next target.

Next week, we will have new Weekly and Daily Pivot and Resistance/Support Levels.

EG

Another revised 15 min count

Looks like I will have to say goodbye to my short trade.

Looking for a retrace of sub wave 1 towards
50% 222.15
61.8% 221.94
78.6% 221.64
85% 221.52


And we should be Good for Longs from there and most likely surpussing the 251 position.

the ending diagonal triangle will fit into a wave 5 label. And this would somehow end the plunge as this is the end of BIG wave C Down of the Corrective Wave 4 on the Daily Chart.

A Break above the downward upper trendline will give me a better confirmation for the Trend reversal.

EG

Exited my short trade at a loss.

Will wait to enter anew after a retracement towards the previous low.

Based on the ending diagonal triangle, this sub wave 1 up may hit the upper downtrendline as it coincides with the 261.8% fib extention from the sub wave 1 of sub wave 1.

or follow Wave Equality w5 = w1

But more likely take the 127.6% FE based on historical observation. Then make a retrace back down before moving UP.

They say that a breakout of an ending diagonal triangle could be very powerful that it normally exceeds the the whole length of the triangle itself.

And I think this would have quite a lot of weight as the ending diagonal triangle (if it plays out) is found in the 4hour Timeframe.

Today I broke my own rule. After getting a little more than 135 pips (this morning) which is my Daily target I am supposed to just study or demo . Now I had to give it back again becfause I missed that ending diagonal triangle.

I got lost in the wave count for this 5th wave. I failed to realize at once the possibility of an ending diagonal triangle which causes an overlap among the waves and w3 could also be the shortest among w1 w3 and w5.

So for next time, I realize my 2 evident mistakes and next time I should remember to correct.

1. To monitor potential waves 1 or A for possibility of a leading diagonal triangle instead of an impulse wave . or for waves 5 or C for potential ending diagonal waves instead of an impulse wave.

2. to scan for this patterns in all time frames specially the time frames higher than 15 mins.

3. to keep reviewing ew counts on the daily, 4 hr and the 1hr charts and to avoid getting drowned in the ew counts of the lower time frame.

This is getting much easier now. Yes I still make a lot of mistakes on my ew counts. But learning from these mistakes by knowing what went wrong helps me understand and remember the rules better. what ever I lose on my live trades because of error in counting waves, will just have to be considered as additional expenses in learning.

Right now... I only trade the smallest amount allowed by my broker. I can only increase that when I can get a full week of 135x5=675pips minimum in a week.

If I get more than 135 already for the day, I will only trade again for the day if I have an extra50 pips from my daily quota. That is the only amount at risk I will allow myself for another trade in the day beyond my target. ( that includes the spread of 20 per trade ). this should make me more careful with additional trades and limit potential loss. This means I will only allow my trade a maximum of 30 pips drawdown. Otherwise, I call it a day.

Trying to build discipline here for myself.

HAPPY WEEKEND EVERYONE.

EG

Longer-Term ( Usd/Yen )
--------------------------
- Is the Usd/Yen going to hell in a hand basket ?...........

How much lower do you thhink ............?
------------------------------------------------------------

Hi marketwavez.

I have a different perspective with respect to the USDJPY Count as you will see in the charts below.

I am still unclear as to the complexity of the wave 4 on the monthly. Downward trendline was breached and retraced.

EG

Looking at the 4 hour chart and studying the ending diagonal pattern....

this looks like the diagonal pattern may not breach that upper down trendline afterall.

Based on the description of an ending diagonal triangle wave 5, all waves are expected to be in 3 wave form.

So now I potentially see price on the 4 hour chart to range till it hits the upper downtrendline then makes a zigzag as it goes down the point of the ending diagonal triangle

Before we can expect any break out with a substantial move to the upside which could then be considered as a trend reversal.

Being the end of a big wave c down of the corrective wave 4 down on the Daily, I then would consider that the GBPJPY is back on an UPTREND from that low.

Targets would be
a truncated 5th wave UP below previous 251.32 previous HIGH
or the FE 100.0 @ 259.85 which is the level at which C=A on the monthly chart. But of course that would take months to most probably over a year to achieve.

But then again, anything can still happen through the course of time. These are basically just long term forecasts which needs to be reviewed at least every week to see if they still apply to what is happening in the market.

EG

Here is somethingelse to think about

Head and shoulders in relation to the EW and Fibonacci studies on Price

Here is where I see a conflict. A head and shoulder Pattern sees a breach to the lower side for a longer term down trend.

But based on the EW Count, Price is expected to potentially breakout of the upper down-trendline of that ending diagonal triangle.

These are I think 2 opposite expectations if I am not mistaken.

We will thus have to wait for price to develop and see which one it proves right.

Another thing I noticed is that if the ending diagonal triangle works out, then it also falls in the range of 61.8 - 78.6% FIB Projection for wave C based on its relationship to wave A.

EG

Yes..mo too, think that we will see new lows on GBP/JPY
224.00 can be highest after what we can go way down again
Nice charts!

just an alternative count...any comment be welcome

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