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BAD November?

  • #21
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:31pm Nov 15, 2007 3:31pm
Although I ended up 152 pips in the black I thought the last 4 weeks were difficult.

I've documented my trades and I'll send the link once my site is up.
  • #22
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:22pm Nov 15, 2007 4:22pm
Isn't November only half over?
  • #23
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:40pm Nov 15, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Isn't November only half over?
Today makes trade day #13 with 13 more to go.. then again, that is including Thanksgiving Day.
  • #24
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:47pm Nov 15, 2007 4:47pm
it's November 15th... it's a magical time. Time to haul ass to the calendar year's end.
  • #25
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:47pm Nov 15, 2007 4:47pm
I personally am rockin' the house this month. Last two weeks have been EASY money. Like smjones said, heck, pick a pair and short it.

But I think we're getting close to the end of the current downmove... I'm getting ready for some EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD love here real soon.

CADJPY is also wanting some love too...
Mr. Trend
  • #26
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:00pm Nov 15, 2007 5:00pm
Quoting smjones
Here I will post one at random. I have drawn two trend lines that touch atleast 3 points, forming a trend line. Can you see where to place the orders and the stops? Knowing that, you can determine how large you position size should be based on how much you are going to risk on any given trade. For me that amount is fixed at 2% of the account and 10 % for total trades.
Account balance *Risk Percent / Stoploss (inPips) / PipValue = Postion Size

The time frame has nothing to do with it at all.

I am not necessarily recommending you trade with trend lines. The point is that you must define your entry and your stop, based on the market, not on your account size and then figure out how large your postion size is to keep your account safe.
#

scott , could you give me an example please? maybe sme trade you made recently because I have problem to understand the calculation without concrete figures
  • #27
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:50pm Nov 15, 2007 5:50pm
Quoting fx_amateur
#

scott , could you give me an example please? maybe sme trade you made recently because I have problem to understand the calculation without concrete figures
These calculations assume a 3% risk on each trade, a $10,000 account, and $10/pip (which applies to any pair with USD at the counter currency)

$10,000 USD x 3% = $300 USD. If a currency is $10 per pip and you used a 30 pip stop you will find that $300 / ($10/pip x 30 pips) = 1 standard lot.

I used this example specifically becasue it's a good rule of thumb for quickly determining size. For every $10K a 30 pip stop lets you trade 1 lot. Or, in mini-lot terms, every $1000 at a 30 pip stop allows you to trade 1 mini.

So, if you used a 60 pip stop you could trade 5 minis on a $10K or 5 micros on a $1K

Or, if you had a $5000 account with a 30 pip stop you could trade 5 minis.
  • #28
  • Edited 6:30pm Nov 15, 2007 6:06pm | Edited 6:30pm
Quoting fx_amateur
#

scott , could you give me an example please? maybe sme trade you made recently because I have problem to understand the calculation without concrete figures
On 11/01/07 at 23:56 GMT I place a short on GBPJPY at 237.72. The daily high was 241.34. so I figured I need a stop above that amount by about 10 pips. that made my stop 241.44

So, I do not want to say what my account size is, but lets use $10,000.
$10000 * 0.02 = $200. 200 / (24144 - 23772) = .552. .552 / pipvalue of 9.0514 = a Lot size of 0.06.

I Closed this trade on 11/14/07 10:35 at 231.55. So I made 617 pips on this trade. 617 * 0.06 * 9.0522 = $335.11 profit.

There for, the risk ended up being $200 and the profit $335.11 so the actual R:R was 1.68 : 1

I hope that answers the question

On a side note, I closed this trade when I did, because it had fulfilled my trade plan and was looking technically weak. Since that time I have re-enter the short above where I exited, because this pair was showing further weakness. I am currently in this pair short, but nervous, watching closely.

Correction, slightly below where I closed, not above. My re -entry was 230.70.
  • #29
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:14pm Nov 15, 2007 6:14pm
BTW, nice explanation Phil. I could not have made it more clear, how I compute it.
  • #30
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:16pm Nov 15, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting smjones
BTW, nice explanation Phil. I could not have made it more clear, how I compute it.
Sorry to butt in. It's just a handy little thumbrule that I stumbled on when playing with numbers one day.

Congrats on the big pips!
  • #31
  • Edited 7:07pm Nov 15, 2007 6:35pm | Edited 7:07pm
To be honest I have several that do not work out as well. But the point is when I lose, I lose 2% when I win I generally win from about 1.5 to 3 times what I lose and I generally have a positive winning percentage. So that is why the amount risked is so important. Everyone loses. If they say they don't, they are liers. But at the end of the day or week or month How ever you measure it. you will end up in profit.

Here is one that did not work out for me.

11/07 23:35 GBPUSD Short at 2.0999 SL was 2.1119 just above the high one ATR. The market hit my StopLoss on 11/08 at 15:40. Loss of 120 pips. I said crap and then went on to the next trade. I lost 2%. What did I learn from this loser? I didn't learn anything. Sometimes my trades crap out. That is the way it is. But, after I said crap, I felt good about it, because I traded it according to my plans I had established in advance.
  • #32
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:30pm Nov 15, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting Miguel
I am reading on several posts people blowing up their accounts, getting margin calls and others loosing big time.
What's going on this month? i would like to understand this phenomenon since the last 15 trading days where the best i had so far.
I know I'm a little late to the party but the month has nothing to do w/ people getting margin calls or blowing up accounts. For those that are it was just a matter of time.

I'm personally down about 196 pips at the moment but that only equates to about 6.5% and the month isn't over yet.

It sure would be nice to be a broker and just watch the account go up by the hour for all those that have no respect for leverage or proper MM
  • #33
  • Nov 16, 2007 3:43am Nov 16, 2007 3:43am
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
A bad month?! I completed my move to using PA trades on daily charts and made over 1000 pips so far this month...true the big trade on GBPJPY was nearly half of that but still.
If people are blowing accounts in one month then that's over-exposure and nothing to do with market conditions or whatnot.

-TPO.
  • #34
  • Nov 17, 2007 6:10pm Nov 17, 2007 6:10pm
November is volatile which if you are careful is a great thing. November 2006 I got caught off guard and I got taken to the cleaners. So far this November I'm happy.
  • #35
  • Nov 17, 2007 7:15pm Nov 17, 2007 7:15pm
This is my second month of trading:

+5% in October
+24% in November

I'm likeing November so far..
  • #36
  • Nov 17, 2007 7:37pm Nov 17, 2007 7:37pm
I have found that year after year that December to be the hardest month to trade due to extreme volatility.
But it seems to me that this year some of the patterns that we see in December have started early in november.
By the way, November has been a great month for me so far.
  • #37
  • Nov 19, 2007 6:07pm Nov 19, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting Bigvick991
This is my second month of trading:

+5% in October
+24% in November

I'm likeing November so far..
BigVick...

First of all, congrats on the fine month so far. Mind if I ask what technique you are using? I'm just shy of 2 months in demo and looking for a place to start. Right now I use Pin Bars and Inner Bars w/confluence of Fibs and trend lines primarily.

Thanks in advance.

TNFPosterboy
  • #38
  • Nov 19, 2007 6:16pm Nov 19, 2007 6:16pm
November hasn't been bad to me at all so far............haven't lost a single trade!!!! However, that might be due to the fact I haven't placed a single trade this month :

It was a nice holiday I had though....

Looking back, I don't see anything extreme that would've caused any heavy losses for me??? That's not to say zero losses though
  • #39
  • Nov 20, 2007 1:24am Nov 20, 2007 1:24am
Quoting smjones
Sometimes my trades crap out. That is the way it is. But, after I said crap, I felt good about it, because I traded it according to my plans I had established in advance.
That and it's fun to swear from time to time, haha.

I'm not sure about you, but I always still feel oddly satisfied even when I get stopped out of a trade so long as it was the exact trade my methodology told me to take. It's still satisfying knowing that you made the right decision with what you know, it just went against you. Regular conditioning tells you that you should feel a bit off-keel or disappointed (if you're straight up mad, you done did something wrong in your trading and that's something else you need to contend with) after taking a loss, but I get some strange satisfaction out of just saying, "Well, it looked right to me, it just didn't work. On to the next time then." If only relationships worked this easily...

As for the month as a whole? "Eff'in tops!" I'm not a big rap fan, but I must quote, "I got money in the bank. Tell me what you want to drink?" Yes, I realise I cleaned up the grammar of a rap song, but it still outlines what I'm trying to say. Several consecutive multiple hundred pip days are quite warming to the heart to say the least.

Congratulations to all who have done well this month. To those who haven't had the good fortune, use this month as a record of what went wrong in your trading, and why? No reason to lament what happened, learn from it! That's the only way you're going to get over "what went wrong", is if you look at what happened, look at why you did what you did, and try to think about what would have worked better instead in those situations. Also, as was pointed out, I bet MM was a part of it as well. It always seems to be a part of it... /broken record speech
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #40
  • Nov 20, 2007 2:40am Nov 20, 2007 2:40am
Shit happens.

Ive made several huge losses this month.
Went long GBPUSD @ 2.07xx for a TP @ 2.0850; price went up a few pips to my TP then all hell broke loose it dived down hitting my stop at 2.0650!

One thing I forgot was to move the stop to BE+1...

Lesson learned.. But the question lingers in each of us is, will we remember it for next time?

Fortunately, I am still net up for the month. Right now, I missed going Long GBPUSD again.. Weekly and Daily chart is pointing up but I hesitated.
Procrastination.
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