Trading Strategy

so what you mean is i should keep trying to 'predict' how the market should be and enter only when i'm more accurate ?

Man, you don't enter when you correctly predict the market, you enter when you identify a turning point in the market. Let's say a certain market is in an uptrend and you keep predicting the market and the market is always trading above your expectations, and finally you predict the market and when you check where the market is actually trading, you find it trading below your expectations. Only now, you have identified a turning point and you can initiate a turning point and you can initiate a short position.


Thanks,

Nader

but what if the price go back up when i enter short since i'm always a little 'late' or lagging the market in my expectations ?

I think you are wrong about this... look a little more into it... if it were BS, I would have been broke by now...

J16 and Price analysis can be used to augment your own system, or as a system on it's own...

What I basically wanted to say here is that there are too many people looking for things which do not matter , all those candlestick formations conceal the truth and only serve as a cash cow to such people like Nison

LOL....Of course there will be times where the price goes back up and moves against you, you can never be right 100% of the time. The only 2 facts of life, Death and Taxes. There is no other facts about the future other than those.

Literally what you are trying to do is to throw in your opinion and then see what's the markets' opinion and that's all. If it's complicated, don't use it. If doesn't seem to be easy to grasp, drop it immediately and search for something else which makes sense and seems easier for you.

For me, this strategy is very easy. I don't solely take my trading decisions this way, however, I always use this strategy to confirm my analysis and rest assured that I will turn out to be correct, most probably. For example, let's say that my analysis tells me to go long corn. What I actually do is to pull the trigger and then implement this strategy. If the market keeps trading above my expectations in the couple of days after I went long, I know that my original hard work analysis would turn out to be correct and that I am going to make money on this trade. However, there is always the stop loss where everything else goes out of the window when things turn the other way. At such times, I don't care about expectations, I don't care about analysis, I don't care about anything except MY CAPITAL.

For example, today I have had a very bad experience. I was long the S&P 500 futures 3 sessions ago. Guess what, my stop loss was hit today and I ended up selling my position almost at the low of the day (Actually it was just 2 points above the low of the day). I was not infront of my computer when this happened. However, I can't tell you how happy I was when I found that my stop got hit. For real, I was happy, even after I found that I almost sold at the low of the day. What really made me happy was to see the drop in my equity being stopped, no matter what the market did after that. Let the market go to hell, I don't care and nobody should. I care no more of being right or wrong, I just care about my equity and that's all.

Check my signature. If you are dead sure that you are right, then probably the rest of the world is WRONG. If you are dead sure that your capital is the most important thing in the whole game, then probably all the experts in the world are WRONG in what they are telling you.


Thanks,

Nader

many thanks..........o zen master trader........:

Oddly enough you just happen to be one of those people. Your beliefs about candle stick formations seems a bit limited to be making such rash statements. You are an armature after all.

Best of luck... sounds like your going to need it.

MM

P.S.
A thank you for the time people spent posting responses and sharing their insights might be nice too. You ungrateful little F-ER.

why so offensive? I only wanted to help , if you mean that candlestick formations are what your buy/sell descisions are based on then it is rather you who is gonna need luck

Your short one-sided replies got to me... and its not about the candlesticks either. You're not listening to any of the replies. It's as if your mind is already made up and no other answer will do, other than the one you're trying to hear. Just an observation. Sorry about the edge in the previous post... I can be a bit of a prick at times.

You can try to open your positions based only in turning points (support-resistances) and a good money management in higher timeframes.
I mean that you can try for example a risk-reward strategy of 1:3 or even 1:4, and so if you open 10 trades and you fail 7 and only gain 3 you are gaining money.

For example 1:4 Risk-reward: SL: 30, TP:120
3 won = 360 pips, 7 lost = 210 pips , you gain 150 pips (360 - 210)

1:3 risk-reward: SL: 30 TP:90
3 won = 270 pips, 7 lost = 210 pips, you gain 60 pips (270 - 210)

Risk only 1%-3% of your account in all your opened positions, it´s very important to survive in this market.

You can identify these points of reverse looking your charts and drawing horizontal lines, or you can only load this indicator to help you:

http://noponzi.com/sr.ex4

Use 4h, daily charts or where you find a good opportunity to reach your TP (support or resistance) with this money management. Take every support-resistance as a point of reverse and place your SL 20-30 pips above/below the resistance-support, if your trade was closed then treat it like a failed trade against your prediction. If you open your position when price reach a support then your SL must be below this support (20-30 pips), if you open your position when price reach a resistance then your SL must be above this resistance (20-30 pips) because you expect the price to reverse. Of course you will fail many times, but most of the times price reverses.

I recommend you to follow the trend in your trade only taking a look at daily-weekly charts (higher lows when price reverse = long, the opposite = short). Enter when you see a high movement in your favorite pair and when it´s on a support-resistance (one of these points).


It´s only another idea, in Forex the most important is money management and discipline, I think that you could gain money this way.

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