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Trading Strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 11, 2007 12:02pm Nov 11, 2007 12:02pm
I have seen so many different strategies with technical indicators so far , I am wondering if someone has a strategy without any indicators? not even moving averages
  • #2
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:19pm Nov 11, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting fx_amateur
I have seen so many different strategies with technical indicators so far , I am wondering if someone has a strategy without any indicators? not even moving averages
Check out the James16 price action thread and learn to read price itself


Best of luck to you
Mike
  • #3
  • Nov 11, 2007 12:28pm Nov 11, 2007 12:28pm
Quoting fx_amateur
I have seen so many different strategies with technical indicators so far , I am wondering if someone has a strategy without any indicators? not even moving averages
I have! I have a trading strategie without technical indicators. I dont believe in TA.

TA wont work for me in Forex. I use RM an MM strategies.
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #4
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:21am Nov 12, 2007 7:21am
Quoting fx_amateur
I have seen so many different strategies with technical indicators so far , I am wondering if someone has a strategy without any indicators? not even moving averages
there's jacko's house of pain and pleasure.........

at oanda's forum, there's a thread on carry trade ' doubled my a/c the past year'..........

also, there's one website by a young trader who is successfully trading without any indicators - forex4noobs.com.......
  • #5
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:52am Nov 12, 2007 7:52am
yeah just watch the price moves 20 hours a day for 3 yrs ... ull get the feel of the market , i know some1 who does well without indicator at all ! was surprised to see his screen blank clean ... best part ... only 1 timeframe !
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:10am Nov 12, 2007 8:10am
Quoting mbqb11
Check out the James16 price action thread and learn to read price itself


Best of luck to you
Mike
I see this but I mean a real strategy not just understanding the relationship between high , close , open, low comparing to previous bars , this is not a strategy but a substitute for learning candlestick patterns which is indeed a great thing as most people learning candlestick patterns do not even realize they are wasting time (Yes , all that stuff by Steve Nison IS indeed a load of sh*t designed to suck out people's money) but nevertheless this is far away form a real strategy
  • #7
  • Nov 12, 2007 10:04am Nov 12, 2007 10:04am
I'm personally not a fan of indicators either.. The problem with them all is they are lagged.
  • #8
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:15am Nov 13, 2007 5:15am
Quoting maheswara
yeah just watch the price moves 20 hours a day for 3 yrs ... ull get the feel of the market , i know some1 who does well without indicator at all ! was surprised to see his screen blank clean ... best part ... only 1 timeframe !
that person is you ?

so seriously, who is doing what ?
  • #9
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:40am Nov 14, 2007 2:40am
Quoting findcount
there's jacko's house of pain and pleasure.........

at oanda's forum, there's a thread on carry trade ' doubled my a/c the past year'..........

also, there's one website by a young trader who is successfully trading without any indicators - forex4noobs.com.......

As much I know about the Carry Trade people generally avoid it as it is considered very vulnerable. I have never practiced Carry Trade since I have heard many bad things about it.
  • #10
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:49pm Nov 14, 2007 1:49pm
I am really curious , there are so many strategies posted on FF , can anyone post a strategy here but without technical indicators? I would really like to see a real non-indicator strategy , I am already sick and tired to see all those threads about macd , fibonacci and all possible line crossovers
  • #11
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:25pm Nov 14, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting fx_amateur
I am really curious , there are so many strategies posted on FF , can anyone post a strategy here but without technical indicators? I would really like to see a real non-indicator strategy , I am already sick and tired to see all those threads about macd , fibonacci and all possible line crossovers
And as for candlestick patterns, you say, "I see this but I mean a real strategy not just understanding the relationship between high , close, open, low comparing to previous bars , this is not a strategy..."

Since you're sick, tired or bored of what most people try - I think you're left with just trading the spikes from news announcements.

On the other hand, there are plenty of references to "trading naked" on this forum. Perhaps you should go research those threads yourself and see if anything there meets your criteria.
  • #12
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:52pm Nov 14, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting fx_amateur
I have seen so many different strategies with technical indicators so far , I am wondering if someone has a strategy without any indicators? not even moving averages
I can give you a very simple strategy to use without using any technical indicators..

The main concept behind this strategy is that the Market IS always RIGHT.

Let's say that you are trading EUR/USD pair. First of all, you never watch charts and never do any sort of analysis upon charts. This might be weird, however, this is how it goes.

You have 3 sessions during the day. First of all, you will have a look at the price of the pair once every session, usually at different random times and you should avoid looking at the price during big news to remove the noise.

The strategy is based upon expectations. After each day ends, that's after 5:00 PM EST, you will have a look at where the pair closed the day and see the high and low of the day and that's all the information you need to know for the day.

The next day and during the Asian session, you will expect a price where you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at just before you check the market. Let's say that you expected the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4650. You open your software and see where the EUR/USD is trading and you find that the actual price is 1.4700 which is above your expectation. And since the market price is ALWAYS right, you will believe the market and be bullish.

Then during the European session, you will expect another figure before you check and let's say that you will expect the pair to be trading at 1.4630 and you find the pair actually trading at 1.4690 which suggests that you stay bullish.

The premises of this strategy is that the market is right and is trading above your expectations and thus you should eventually be bullish. When the market is trading below your expectations, then you should be bearish and when the market is trading at your expectations you should keep your previous preference, either bullish or bearish.

This way will enable you to stay with trends and will enable you to identify tops and bottoms as soon as they form. In up trends you will find that your expectations are always below what the market is actually trading at and in downtrends you will find that your expectations are always above what the market is actually trading at. In sideways you will find that your expectations coincides with where the market is actually trading at.

A reversal will eventually occur when you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4800 and when you check the market find it trading at 1.4680. This happens after a series of expectations where the market have always beaten them to the favor of the trend.

Observing the closing of the day and the high and low before you start your expectation every day is crucial as those 3 numbers shall be the basis for your expectation. You will also find yourself adjusting your expectations automatically to be wider or narrower as the market volatility changes (Represented by the range you notice between the high and the low).

I know that the methodology is complicated to be explained exactly, however it is extremely efficient and reliabale and you can try it on demo for a long time and on different instruments not just forex.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #13
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:30pm Nov 14, 2007 6:30pm
I liked Jacko's thread mentioned above. It's very simple and goes with the long term trend. I use a similar strategy myself. I like to keep things simple, I often think too many indicators always give u a reason not to trade.
  • #14
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:28am Nov 15, 2007 7:28am
Quoting peterM
I liked Jacko's thread mentioned above. It's very simple and goes with the long term trend. I use a similar strategy myself. I like to keep things simple, I often think too many indicators always give u a reason not to trade.
jacko's method is effective but what happens when the main trend finally reverse ? how do i know when the main trend reverses ?

also, i'm worried when the usual trading characteristics of the pair changes.....
  • #15
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:33am Nov 15, 2007 7:33am
Quoting narafa
I can give you a very simple strategy to use without using any technical indicators..

The main concept behind this strategy is that the Market IS always RIGHT.

Let's say that you are trading EUR/USD pair. First of all, you never watch charts and never do any sort of analysis upon charts. This might be weird, however, this is how it goes.

You have 3 sessions during the day. First of all, you will have a look at the price of the pair once every session, usually at different random times and you should avoid looking at the price during big news to remove the noise.

The strategy is based upon expectations. After each day ends, that's after 5:00 PM EST, you will have a look at where the pair closed the day and see the high and low of the day and that's all the information you need to know for the day.

The next day and during the Asian session, you will expect a price where you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at just before you check the market. Let's say that you expected the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4650. You open your software and see where the EUR/USD is trading and you find that the actual price is 1.4700 which is above your expectation. And since the market price is ALWAYS right, you will believe the market and be bullish.

Then during the European session, you will expect another figure before you check and let's say that you will expect the pair to be trading at 1.4630 and you find the pair actually trading at 1.4690 which suggests that you stay bullish.

The premises of this strategy is that the market is right and is trading above your expectations and thus you should eventually be bullish. When the market is trading below your expectations, then you should be bearish and when the market is trading at your expectations you should keep your previous preference, either bullish or bearish.

This way will enable you to stay with trends and will enable you to identify tops and bottoms as soon as they form. In up trends you will find that your expectations are always below what the market is actually trading at and in downtrends you will find that your expectations are always above what the market is actually trading at. In sideways you will find that your expectations coincides with where the market is actually trading at.

A reversal will eventually occur when you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4800 and when you check the market find it trading at 1.4680. This happens after a series of expectations where the market have always beaten them to the favor of the trend.

Observing the closing of the day and the high and low before you start your expectation every day is crucial as those 3 numbers shall be the basis for your expectation. You will also find yourself adjusting your expectations automatically to be wider or narrower as the market volatility changes (Represented by the range you notice between the high and the low).

I know that the methodology is complicated to be explained exactly, however it is extremely efficient and reliabale and you can try it on demo for a long time and on different instruments not just forex.


Thanks,

Nader

very refreshing way to get in tune to the market sentiment. so if i'm less bullish than the market, i should go long right there and then ? just afraid things will go awry........
  • #16
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:16am Nov 15, 2007 8:16am
Quoting brentmack
And as for candlestick patterns, you say, "I see this but I mean a real strategy not just understanding the relationship between high , close, open, low comparing to previous bars , this is not a strategy..."

Since you're sick, tired or bored of what most people try - I think you're left with just trading the spikes from news announcements.

On the other hand, there are plenty of references to "trading naked" on this forum. Perhaps you should go research those threads yourself and see if anything there meets your criteria.
yes indeed , I would be following what most people do if these people could also make profits but since most people lose why should it be reasonable to follow them?
  • #17
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:19am Nov 15, 2007 8:19am
Quoting narafa
I can give you a very simple strategy to use without using any technical indicators..

The main concept behind this strategy is that the Market IS always RIGHT.

Let's say that you are trading EUR/USD pair. First of all, you never watch charts and never do any sort of analysis upon charts. This might be weird, however, this is how it goes.

You have 3 sessions during the day. First of all, you will have a look at the price of the pair once every session, usually at different random times and you should avoid looking at the price during big news to remove the noise.

The strategy is based upon expectations. After each day ends, that's after 5:00 PM EST, you will have a look at where the pair closed the day and see the high and low of the day and that's all the information you need to know for the day.

The next day and during the Asian session, you will expect a price where you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at just before you check the market. Let's say that you expected the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4650. You open your software and see where the EUR/USD is trading and you find that the actual price is 1.4700 which is above your expectation. And since the market price is ALWAYS right, you will believe the market and be bullish.

Then during the European session, you will expect another figure before you check and let's say that you will expect the pair to be trading at 1.4630 and you find the pair actually trading at 1.4690 which suggests that you stay bullish.

The premises of this strategy is that the market is right and is trading above your expectations and thus you should eventually be bullish. When the market is trading below your expectations, then you should be bearish and when the market is trading at your expectations you should keep your previous preference, either bullish or bearish.

This way will enable you to stay with trends and will enable you to identify tops and bottoms as soon as they form. In up trends you will find that your expectations are always below what the market is actually trading at and in downtrends you will find that your expectations are always above what the market is actually trading at. In sideways you will find that your expectations coincides with where the market is actually trading at.

A reversal will eventually occur when you expect the EUR/USD to be trading at 1.4800 and when you check the market find it trading at 1.4680. This happens after a series of expectations where the market have always beaten them to the favor of the trend.

Observing the closing of the day and the high and low before you start your expectation every day is crucial as those 3 numbers shall be the basis for your expectation. You will also find yourself adjusting your expectations automatically to be wider or narrower as the market volatility changes (Represented by the range you notice between the high and the low).

I know that the methodology is complicated to be explained exactly, however it is extremely efficient and reliabale and you can try it on demo for a long time and on different instruments not just forex.


Thanks,

Nader
Sorry I don't understand how the market can be always be right?
  • #18
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:46pm Nov 15, 2007 4:46pm
Quoting findcount
very refreshing way to get in tune to the market sentiment. so if i'm less bullish than the market, i should go long right there and then ? just afraid things will go awry........
In fact, you should not initiate positions unless you identify a turning point so that you make sure that you are in complete synch with the market.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #19
  • Nov 15, 2007 5:04pm Nov 15, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting fx_amateur
Sorry I don't understand how the market can be always be right?
The market is always right means that the current price of any certain instrument is the correct price which reveals all the future expectations of all market participants. This is one of the basic concepts of technical analysis. Price discounts all available information.

Don't really know how to explain it, but it is as simple as that. The market have a set of the best minds in the world, so if you are expecting something and the set of the best minds in the world are expecting higher than you, then 95% they are right and you are wrong. And the same goes if you are expecting something and the set of the best minds in the world are expecting lower than you.

For example, take oil recently. On November the 6th oil closed at $96.90 and registered a high for the day at $97.07 and a low for the day at $94.41. If you were to expect the price of oil during the next day twice during the session, I bet you would have expected a $100 or a $102 since the closing came just $3-$5 below this level and because of the recent volatility in oil, you would see a $3-$5 move to be a normal move for 1 day.

You expected a $100 per barrel and you go check the market and you find that the market is trading at $97.50 (On November the 7th, oil opened marginally higher and drifted lower all over the session to hit $95). And thus, the market was trading below your expectations and in this case you don't want to be long oil for sure and if you are an aggressive trader, you would like to be short.

You observe the high, low and close of the 7th of November and find them to be, high = $98.62, low = $94.62 and close = $95.88. So you will go for an expectation for the next day based on those 3 tips and I bet if you were at this situation you would have expected a pull back. Personally, I would have expected a pull back towards the high at around $97.80-$98 which didn't happen (The high for the day came at $97.69 and the market traded there for less than an hour and then sold off sharply) and thus the market was actually trading below your expectations and the decision is that you should not be long and if you are holding a short, you should keep it.

This is how it goes. Very simple and effective. Try it yourself as a demo.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #20
  • Nov 15, 2007 6:29pm Nov 15, 2007 6:29pm
Best thing I ever did was to delete all the indicators except some MAs and pivots used to help determine the trends. The candles work very well for me probably from habit acquired in stock trading.

AS for a strategy...
It took very looong time studying PA related to the timeframes in the London session but patterns do emerge trading the GBP pairs. And for me this has become the most successful trading by far.
History is written by the victors.
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