Aussie Pairs

I have orders set to scale into AUD/USD from 0.8960 through 0.9240. There's a big honking post on my journal about the analysis I did, but that's because I'm still trying to settle on a method I'm comfortable with. Anyway, I won't reproduce the thing here, so this is the Reader's Digest condensed version:

1. Fundamentals look good, recent releases support the pair and the interest rate differential is long.

2. The long term trend is up, with the pull back we saw last week just bringing the pair to a common support area between the 30 and 50 SMA on the daily charts.

3. The pair is in an ascending right triangle on the lower TF charts.

4. There was a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI(8) on the daily chart. The RSI went to lower lows from the October low of 0.8750 to the recent low of 0.8750, but this was not confirmed by price action which did not make lower lows. It has created a double bottom.

5. The pair has just broken a strong confluence of resistance area around 0.8940.

6. Now that my first order is filled and I've posted this, the pair will of course go to 0.000000000001 now, LOL.

[
6. Now that my first order is filled and I've posted this, the pair will of course go to 0.000000000001 now, LOL. [/quote]


So its you who will turn it against me.....

I'm the culprit! No, actually I suspect that it will end this week higher. But my account's down 20% from inception so whaddoIknow??

price is holding around 8940, I've got support around 8903 and expect a test of 9000

Election due here next weekend, with the Labor Party expected to win after 12 years of the Liberals (conservatives), So I am unsure how the market will react, I am long from 8850 and will look for a TP at around 91, OR maybe just ride this puppy to 99 ..!!!

Quote "OR maybe just ride this puppy to 99 ..!!!"

Longer term resistance currently stands at 9530 level imo..despite possible bearish election implications & carry trade unwinding etc etc.

It definitley seems that way with the rally towards the end of the US session on Friday. I was waiting for a larger pullback and re-test of the .8750 prior to entering which did not happen.

It's looks like it's going to bounce around familiar ranges over the next few days. I'm sort of happy to sit this one out for the rest of the week.

[quote=capitalist88;1720109]

I'm the culprit!



Damn that 'Many a true word...etc, etc "

The Aussie is looking like it may see .8750 by tomorrow or the next day. .8800 is a shoe in, in my opinion. Today is going to close bearish and that will easily set tomorrow up for the drop of 50 to 100 pips. Just have to wait for the days close now. Anyone have any different thoughts?

Throughout the day/night, I think we will see a higher level again first; around .8900. Then we will most likely see the drop for tomorrow. There is resistance right above 8900 and the 4 hour candle closed as bullish. This is my reasoning for thinking we will see this higher level before another drop. My initial target will probably be .8800 again, and then if everything goes well I will have another at .8750.

This 50% fibo is providing support, This is might be a bottom but I am still bearish untill a few bull candles on the 4hr tell me otherwise.

BWR,

I see a test of the lows towards the low 90s/high 80s which is where the reversal occurred last time this pair sold off.

Has anybody else noticed the island top (daily) on Kiwi?
be careful as island tops and bottoms also have throwbacks but are generally reversal patterns

I think your going to see a few bullish candles on the 4 hour, but I also think that will just be to gain power to make another drop down.

I meant enough candles that break out of what looks to be flag formation rangyness

Oh ok, my bad! I didn't quite know what you meant when you said that earlier.

Oops, I meant triangle or pennant or what ever you want to call it
Not a flag, please god no dont turn into a flag, I hate those.

So we're testing the Oct lows around the 95.50 area, which means that 8700 will come under attack. There's major support around the 8750 area and again at the 8600 area. Should be interesting in London.

Anyone else here a buyer at a potential 8750 re-visit? I backed up the truck last Monday when we touched that level (though I had to chase it for a hundred pips.. it took off like a rocket). 8750 is a dual fib zone, 10/22 low, 11/12 low. It should be reasonably defended, but no doubt there must be a small army of stop orders underneath, I think we might see them get taken out shortly..

KGB,

I think we'll test 8600