BAD November? | Forex Factory

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BAD November?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 15, 2007 7:17am Nov 15, 2007 7:17am
I am reading on several posts people blowing up their accounts, getting margin calls and others loosing big time.
What's going on this month? i would like to understand this phenomenon since the last 15 trading days where the best i had so far.
  • #2
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:28am Nov 15, 2007 7:28am
I think it boils down to those people are still trying to impose their own will on markets, rather than trading what the market is offering. I have had a phenomenal month this month and last. In fact, if a person just picks any currency pair and were to have just followed the obvious trend they would have made money. People are pre programmed to see patterns and sometimes the patterns we see are not in our best interest.
  • #3
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:44am Nov 15, 2007 7:44am
Indeed 2 great trading months. Very good points Smjones, thank you
  • #4
  • Nov 15, 2007 7:52am Nov 15, 2007 7:52am
I think you should diffirentiate between two groups of people:

1) People changing the direction of their trading depending on where the market is moving

2) People trading into the trend direction only

The ones who blew up their accounts belong to the second group and the ones who made great profits belong to the first group

Once the market conditions change these people will exchange the roles

My personal opinion: blowing up the account during a crisis is a nasty thing but chasing the market is much worse , right now we are dealing with an exceptional crisis which can be considered as the third wave of the subprime market crisis , this will obviously be over sooner or later and I don't know what's gonna happen to people who chase the market then

so AUD/JPY went down 1000 pips , obviously people who took short positions made a great profit but outside a crisis it could have gone down 400 pips and could have made a sharp reversal and all people with short positions would have gotten stopped and with stop-loss they would have gotten wiped out
  • #5
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:19am Nov 15, 2007 8:19am
Quoting Miguel
I am reading on several posts people blowing up their accounts, getting margin calls and others loosing big time.
What's going on this month? i would like to understand this phenomenon since the last 15 trading days where the best i had so far.
Here's a big hint from your own post: If you get a margin call then you didn't have any idea what you were doing in the first place and you didn't use stops. These moves are Darwinian in that they wipe out the undisciplined. It happens a couple times a year. Don't worry, they will refund their accounts or be replaced by someone else wishing to try their luck.
  • #6
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:20am Nov 15, 2007 8:20am
Almost All My Trades This Month Were Unprofitable. I Use M15 Chart B'cos I Don't Use Large Capital To Trade............
I Really Am Not Finding This Month Funny

Does Anybody Know Any Reliable Online Job Site I Can Make Money To Raise Back My Account!!!!!!!!!!!
Everything is bare Making the best out of pips
  • #7
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:25am Nov 15, 2007 8:25am
Quoting osaze
Almost All My Trades This Month Were Unprofitable. I Use M15 Chart B'cos I Don't Use Large Capital To Trade............
I Really Am Not Finding This Month Funny

Does Anybody Know Any Reliable Online Job Site I Can Make Money To Raise Back My Account!!!!!!!!!!!
What does a time frame have to do with the size of your account?
  • #8
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:26am Nov 15, 2007 8:26am
Quoting fx_amateur
I think you should diffirentiate between two groups of people:

1) People changing the direction of their trading depending on where the market is moving

2) People trading into the trend direction only

The ones who blew up their accounts belong to the second group and the ones who made great profits belong to the first group
The market stopped trending? Did you know the EURUSD made new highs on 10 of the last 11 weeks? Did you know the USDCHF broke 2005 lows last week? You don't have to look very hard to find a trend to trade.

I doubt that many people who have the discipline to trade a trend have suddenly blown up.
  • #9
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:32am Nov 15, 2007 8:32am
That's really cool information but completely useless because you are talking in hindsight about pairs which did not have stong moves against the trend , unfortunately profits are not made in hindsight , so you better take a look at JPY and AUD pairs and think what you would have done there instead of looking at pairs which moved down slightly
  • #10
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:34am Nov 15, 2007 8:34am
Quoting osaze
Almost All My Trades This Month Were Unprofitable. I Use M15 Chart B'cos I Don't Use Large Capital To Trade............
I Really Am Not Finding This Month Funny

Does Anybody Know Any Reliable Online Job Site I Can Make Money To Raise Back My Account!!!!!!!!!!!
Could you please post any chart from today for any currency in your 15 minute time frame. Just the price no indicators or moving averages?
  • #11
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:55am Nov 15, 2007 8:55am
I personally see a number of contradictory signals between the shorter term charts and the longer term ones. I have hardly taken any trade this month, only +20 pips for the month.
  • #12
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:55am Nov 15, 2007 8:55am
Here I will post one at random. I have drawn two trend lines that touch atleast 3 points, forming a trend line. Can you see where to place the orders and the stops? Knowing that, you can determine how large you position size should be based on how much you are going to risk on any given trade. For me that amount is fixed at 2% of the account and 10 % for total trades.
Account balance *Risk Percent / Stoploss (inPips) / PipValue = Postion Size

The time frame has nothing to do with it at all.

I am not necessarily recommending you trade with trend lines. The point is that you must define your entry and your stop, based on the market, not on your account size and then figure out how large your postion size is to keep your account safe.
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  • #13
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:09am Nov 15, 2007 9:09am
Quoting fx_amateur
That's really cool information but completely useless because you are talking in hindsight about pairs which did not have stong moves against the trend , unfortunately profits are not made in hindsight , so you better take a look at JPY and AUD pairs and think what you would have done there instead of looking at pairs which moved down slightly
I'm not going to aruge with you. I wrote what I beleived to be a compelling argument here on FF back in early October about the trends that we were experiencing and that too few people were taking adavantage of them. I wrote elsewhere months before that. If you are in a trend and it reverses you get stopped out and lose a couple percent of your account. You tip your hat to the market and move on. It doesn't have to be a dramatic event.
  • #14
  • Nov 15, 2007 11:32am Nov 15, 2007 11:32am
Yeah.. I have hardly traded either this month. I was long on cable from 2.0350, I TPed at 2.10. I wanted a drip to get back in, We have the dip, but until the longer term trend starts to resume I will probably stay out. It is the same for loonie. People who get margin calls in the space of a few weeks are clearly using too much risk.
  • #15
  • Nov 15, 2007 1:29pm Nov 15, 2007 1:29pm
To me, every trading months are the same.

I found out that november are one of the month that has the lowest risk/volatility so far in 2007.

I still lost -240 pips but win 280 pips so far! Not bad
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #16
  • Nov 15, 2007 1:39pm Nov 15, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting th_ngue21
To me, every trading months are the same.

I found out that november are one of the month that has the lowest risk/volatility so far in 2007.
I would think that would be pair dependent. How are you measuring volatility?
  • #17
  • Nov 15, 2007 2:07pm Nov 15, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I would think that would be pair dependent. How are you measuring volatility?
There are several ways how to calculate volatility.

My own volatility ratio model:

(true loss a month/year) / (expected loss a month/year). Below Ratio 1 = less volatile month.

For example this month = 0,67 and October = 1,22
YTD so far = 0,86.

Less volatile = more oppertunity to make big ..% gains fast!
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • #18
  • Nov 15, 2007 2:09pm Nov 15, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting th_ngue21
There are several ways how to calculate volatility.

My own volatility ratio model:

(true loss a month/year) / (expected loss a month/year). Below Ratio 1 = less volatile month.

For example this month = 0,67 and October = 1,22
YTD so far = 0,86.

Less volatile = more oppertunity to make big ..% gains fast!
Well, I can't argue if you make up your own definitions. I was thinking that volatility was a defined trading term that everyone used.
  • #19
  • Nov 15, 2007 2:13pm Nov 15, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Miguel
I am reading on several posts people blowing up their accounts, getting margin calls and others loosing big time.
What's going on this month? i would like to understand this phenomenon since the last 15 trading days where the best i had so far.
I believe that there are more traders that post negative results than positive results for the month of November. I had a very successful month so far.
  • #20
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:21pm Nov 15, 2007 3:21pm
I would say it is just nessecary to look at fundamentals , if the fundamentals are favourable it will be easier to trade and you will have a good time , if there are some major problems like now it will at least become more risky due to increased volatility
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