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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #8,101
  • Edited 2:38pm Nov 2, 2007 2:01pm | Edited 2:38pm
This is the chart of GU DAILY at 3pm EST.

As you can see the price has reached a higher high from the previous chart a few hours ago.

I have place a 161.8% Fibo Extension from the low at 2.0257 up to the Support Line at 2.0652 which was taken from the daily high on 7/24/2007.

We are now within 7 pips of that extension line.

Also looking at an historical high from Oct 1978 at 2.0980 which is only 91 pips higher then our high today.

I will add more analysis over the weekend from the Weekly and Monthly.

Ken

UPDATED: 3:40 pm Friday EST

High has reached 2.0894 just 2 pips from the 161.8% Fibo Ext shown in the chart below.

I would think Sunday Open Market would find some cooling off before we see more upwards movement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily GU Update.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #8,102
  • Nov 2, 2007 2:35pm Nov 2, 2007 2:35pm
Here is a Bigger Picture of the GU.

Low 1.3680 June 2001
High 1.9550 December 2004
Retrace 1.7049 November 2005

High at 1.9550 was Re-Tested on November 2006, then four months of candles straddled this area of Resistance till April 2007 found support on this 1.9550 line and has been Long since.

Now from the support at 1.9550 on December 2004 to the Retrace at 1.7049 on November 2005 I placed a Fibo Extension that places our next area of Resistance at 2.1096 which is just 200 pips higher then our high reached today.

I am projecting we move upwards into the 2.0980 area found on my Daily Historical High and even upwards to the Monthly Fibo Extension at 2.1096.

We are probably going to be seeing some nice ranging from here till the remainder of the year, in which it would continue to around in the process of a continuation or retrace for 2008.

Let's not forget what happened last November, we were coming off 3 months of ranging (Aug-Sep-Oct), then the price hit the 1.9550 top during the Thanksgiving Holiday's, then bounced around for 5 months in a 725 pip range.

If we see some of the same characteristics at the end of 2007, I would think that our actual low are would be the low of OCT 2007 at 2.0244 and the High of 2.0980/2.1096 which would be the same as last year.

This is not a trade recommendation - "ANALYSIS ONLY."

Click to enlarge chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Monthly.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #8,103
  • Edited 4:06pm Nov 2, 2007 3:44pm | Edited 4:06pm
This is an overview of the Support and Resistance that shows the continual trend in it's upward movement.

I have the Green boxes to show price of highs and Red boxes for lows in each swing.

Based upon the highs and lows each rising higher on each swing would reveal the upward trend that has progressed from the breakout that happened in May 2006, finding support eventually in July 2006, that kept price above the high point of September of 2005 at 1.8499.

Based on the 5 swings shown on the charts I have averaged each swing at 747 pips from high to low

The 1121 on each move low to the next high - which equals 2 to 1 in each swing upwards compared to the downward swings.

Upon the average of 747 pips, if the price finds Resistance near 2.1000, the next projected downward move would take us to 2.0147.

I also averaged the days of each cycle in each swing going down and up, but I do not feel it important to post this information because of it's misleading analysis.

This is not a trade recommendation - just my basic analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Daily Sup-Res Trend.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #8,104
  • Nov 12, 2007 6:28pm Nov 12, 2007 6:28pm
Based upon the previous move up to the high at 2.1160 which was 160 pips higher then the projected move based on the previous post #8101.

From this perch at 2.1160, I am deducting the 747 pips as an average move down on retrace to find the next support level at 2.0413.

So far the GU has acted almost perfectly in respect to historical levels which can be recognized on the Monthly Charts.

The price now stands at a low of 2.0525 just 112 pips from average projection, and has cleared the 38.2 Fibo retrace so far.

Fibo Level
Low 1.9742
High 2.1145

38.2 - 2.0609
50% - 2.0444 (21 pips from projected average move)
61.8% - 2.0278 (this level could be seen prior to the next bull move upwards, also shown in Post #8100)

Also if you ran a Fibo Expansion from the weekly chart high at 2.0652 on 7-22-2007 to the low at 1.9650 on 8/12/2007 then back to the high at 2.1160 on 11/04/2007 you will see the 61.8 Expansion at 2.0544 (price now) and the 100% Fibo expansion at 2.0160 which is also near the projection from Post #8100.
  • #8,105
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:01pm Nov 12, 2007 7:01pm
Based on the Fibo High 2.0170 to the recent low at 2.0521 (Candle Body - not wick) I have the retrace back to the 50% at 2.0796.

We have not had more then a 23.6% retrace since the move started down (4HR Chart), so the first level to obtain would be the 38.2 at 2.0731.

I then ran a Fibo Expansion from the very high at 2.1160 to the recent very low at 2.0525, from here I ran point C of the exp tool to the 50% retracement at 2.0796 which project a 61.8 fibo move to 2.0400 area.

These are all fib based projections, we should see this daily candle stay in a range area with possiblities of coming up to the 2.0650 38.2% level, or even a tap on the low at 2.0520/25 area.

If there is a retrace to the 50% level befoe any continuation downwards, then there is a higher possibility of a move to the 2.0150 area, but there is a chance of a 61.8 retrace to the 2.0860 level and back to the top for a double top test.

The greatest thing about FOREX is the "What If Factor," one of the greatest challenges that every trader faces.

Run a complete analysis, check it over a million times, press the buy/sell button and cross your fingers, that works most times. LOL.

Will chat again tomorrow.

Ken
  • #8,106
  • Nov 13, 2007 6:14pm Nov 13, 2007 6:14pm
retrace is over for gbp I think...the first target is 2.0867 again
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  • #8,107
  • Edited 1:14am Nov 14, 2007 1:01am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting fxtrendline
retrace is over for gbp I think...the first target is 2.0867 again
I was expecting a retrace upwards to 2.0821 at the 50%, but with a possiblity of the 61.8% at your target area of 2.0890.

Once we see these levels reached, then I am looking for the 2.0667 at 23.6% with a re-test of the LOW at 2.0529.

If that LOW is breached, then I am targeting a lower move to 2.0428 and possibly down to 2.0182 as per Fib Expansion and movement averages on the monthly chart.

Ken

Note: I am running the Fibo on the 4 hour from High 2.1113 to the Low at 2.0561.

Secondary Fibo is on the Daily Chart from High 2.1070 to Low 2.0528, this would place the 50% at 2.0799 which short of being reached today by 5 pips so far, the 61.8% is at 2.0863.

Will check on this at the turn of the Daily tomorrow.
  • #8,108
  • Nov 14, 2007 9:45am Nov 14, 2007 9:45am
So far the GU has completed the expected 50% level which I was showing the past few days.

Every move has been in accordance with the FIBO levels from Post #8105.

Fibo Levels:
High - 2.1160
Low - 2.0521

50% - 2.0841 (completed today)

Move down from 2.0841 back through the 38.2 and finding support at the 23.6% at 2.0672.

Price will move up to the 38.2% at 2.0765 to find resistance before it comes back down to re-test the Low at 2.0521 once again.

If the Low is breached, I have two targets on the FIBO Expansion at:
61.8% 2.0449
100% 2.0205

These targets will only become important if the breach of the low happens at 2.0521

I will do the Daily Update in 6 hours.

Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 4HR 11-14.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #8,109
  • Nov 14, 2007 10:15am Nov 14, 2007 10:15am
This is the Hourly Chart showing the GAP from the Market close/open.

Also I have the Trend Lines which will change as we have movement, so far this move down here this hour has breached below the Lower Trend line.

I am watching for the test of the Low at 2.0521 for now, let's see if it holds strong for support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Hourly 11-14.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #8,110
  • Edited 5:31pm Nov 14, 2007 4:00pm | Edited 5:31pm
The move down tested the low at 2.0521 and spiked through to a low of 2.0504, 17 pips below.

The Daily candle closed at 2.0522, 1 pip above the low, for now, I see the retracement prior to movement downward.

I have a FIBO from the move down starting at the High 2.0843 to the Low at 2.0504 which gives these levels for retrace.

23.6 - 2.0584
38.2 - 2.0633
50% - 2.0673 (the 50% is the most common with GU)
61.8 - 2.0714

I will now watch for the retrace on the move up, then catch the entry short at three levels, I am not trading any Longs at the moment, since the 4 hour trend is downward below the 200 EMA.

I am doing a 3 entry scale on shorts, one lot per fibo line, starting at the 38%, 50%, then final at 61.8% at 2.0714.

NOTE: Revision on the FIBO EXPANSION based on the upward move to 2.0843.
Point A - 2.1160
Point B - 2.0521
Point C - 2.0843

New Fib EXP. Levels (target once retrace upwards complete's)
61.8% - 2.0450
100% - 2.0203

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 4 HOUR Update.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #8,111
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:33pm Nov 14, 2007 5:33pm
6:30 PM EST

Based upon the Low at 2.0504 and the test of the double bottom, I am taking a 1 LOT Long trade from here.

Long 2.0525
Stop 2.0485
Target 2.0630 (38.2 Retrace Level and Low of support rejection from 3rd previous 4HR candle at 2.0641)

As for the Short Entries, I will begin to scale in at the 50% level 2.0670, 61.8% 2.0710, and Final 76.5% 2.0750
  • #8,112
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:37pm Nov 14, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting monarch
6:30 PM EST

Based upon the Low at 2.0504 and the test of the double bottom, I am taking a 1 LOT Long trade from here.

Long 2.0525
Stop 2.0485
Target 2.0630 (38.2 Retrace Level and Low of support rejection from 3rd previous 4HR candle at 2.0641)
I will follow your signal with my own risk.
  • #8,113
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:39pm Nov 14, 2007 5:39pm
I have the same trade.
Long 2.0512
T/P 2.0670 which is also 1HR 50EMA (2.0680)

Nice to see my analysis match yours Monarch.
  • #8,114
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:40pm Nov 14, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting sifoorex
I will follow your signal with my own risk.
I was looking across the Hourly and the target may become 2.0610, will watch for this area.
  • #8,115
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:43pm Nov 14, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I have the same trade.
Long 2.0512
T/P 2.0670 which is also 1HR 50EMA (2.0680)

Nice to see my analysis match yours Monarch.
Very good entry bro, I was very hesitant at first on entry, but since I am waiting for a Retrace to enter shorts, why not catch some of the ride upwards.

Also, were still very strong Bullish overall, so were trading the trend more then when we short.


We shall soon see.

Also looking at E/U for some entries, I will place this on the thread after my analysis.

Ken
  • #8,116
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:46pm Nov 14, 2007 5:46pm
Quoting monarch
Very good entry bro, I was very hesitant at first on entry, but since I am waiting for a Retrace to enter shorts, why not catch some of the ride upwards.

Also, were still very strong Bullish overall, so were trading the trend more then when we short.


We shall soon see.

Also looking at E/U for some entries, I will place this on the thread after my analysis.

Ken
I was as well, scaled in 1/2 position. But the 2.0500 is such strong support.
I will be out before GBP retail sales at 4:30 a.m. EST.
Nice to see your analysis postings more often !
  • #8,117
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:47pm Nov 14, 2007 5:47pm
50% is not a fibo level.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #8,118
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:47pm Nov 14, 2007 5:47pm
Even though this is the GU thread, I hope you guys don't mind me placing my EJ and EU trades here also, were looking for some quick pips along with scaling in long term trades.

I have the EU coming down in the retrace to the 50% level at: Low reached so far is 1.4644 4 hours ago on the Hourly Candle)
38.2% 1.4650 (10 pips above that level)
50% 1.4630 (10 pips above that level)
61.8% 1.4600 (right on the fib level)

For now, I will monitor the EU for the best entry point based on the 1hr/4hr candle formations.

This may be a minimum of 20 and maximum of 100 pip gain at best, I prefer taking the lower entry for a test of the 1.4700 area again.

Suggestions Folks.....
  • #8,119
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:38pm Nov 14, 2007 6:38pm
Based on the past 5 hourly candles, the price to break below is standing at 1.4647/48 level.

With the pressure on the downside, and the wicks rejecting the break down move, I am watching for it to break down to the 200 EMA on the Hourly which stands at 1.4610, also the 61.8 Fibo level.

For now - No Trade on EU, but will monitor for a deeper retracement.
  • #8,120
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:40pm Nov 14, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting monarch
Based on the past 5 hourly candles, the price to break below is standing at 1.4647/48 level.

With the pressure on the downside, and the wicks rejecting the break down move, I am watching for it to break down to the 200 EMA on the Hourly which stands at 1.4610, also the 61.8 Fibo level.

For now - No Trade on EU, but will monitor for a deeper retracement.
Thanks for the update.
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