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High & Low 8 Hours (GBP/JPY)

  • #501
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:33am Nov 13, 2007 4:33am
Quoting TradeStar
Hi Qman,

I don't think the sell or buy has been triggered yet. Are you talking about today or yesterday.
Thanks,
TradeStar
Actually, you are quite right. I am talking about today's trade. The movie I was going to see was starting before the appropriate time to post the orders, and wasn't going to let out before the orders should post. So, at about 15 minutes past midnight GMT I looked at the distance from the highs and the lows since 2200 GMT and decided there would have to be some momentum to get there, and thought it safe to place the orders. As it turns out, I was executed for my 100 pips shortly before the 0200 GMT prescribed trade time.

Hmmm..... Now I'm thinking maybe I'll look at the success (historically) of basing trades on those hours, and placing the trade that early. Sure worked well today. Seems there was a chance to make multiple profits in that case... hmmm.

Still, the original method is more than sufficient to make a killing in the market with proper money management. Really, anything beyond that is starting to get greedy... I have to fight that everyday.
  • #502
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:43am Nov 13, 2007 4:43am
Quoting sew7
Marc
Was that in the GBP/JPY you made the 100 pips? I use North Finance demo and would have been stopped out tonight. Who are you using for broker?

I said (-) 100 pips!!!!
  • #503
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:06am Nov 13, 2007 5:06am
  •  bonzdoc
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Mountain Man & Beach Bum All In One | 41 Posts
Quoting billbss
You would place them at 9PM. EST is -5GMT.
The easy way to not get confused is to change your computer time to GMT.
Thanks Billbss for helping me out!
"If your mind can see it and believe it you can achieve it."
  • #504
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:15am Nov 13, 2007 5:15am
I see marc--I did not see the (-)---thanks
  • #505
  • Nov 13, 2007 5:58am Nov 13, 2007 5:58am
already hit my tp just now.. only 50 pips... i decided to decrease the tp cause of the range is too big, almost 400.... hope you guys hit too..

thanks
  • #506
  • Nov 13, 2007 7:17am Nov 13, 2007 7:17am
we can not have a great bak test of this system beacause for example we put buy stop in 237.00 and in one bullish candle we see that it is actived and some bull candle after this candle says to us that it is hit tp

but we see that h/l/open/close of this candle is for example this 237.35
236.15 open: 236.65 close :237.20
this is just example and problem is that we dont know the sequence of this prices if first it went to high and actived our pending and then went to low so we hit sl but we may see it is bullish after this are some bullish candles so it is tp but in real it is hit sl

how can we solve this problem in our backtests
sequence of prices of one candle which was first h/l/open /close or .....

i think it is the most importnt thing in our backtest

i am workin in this method and i have backtested this system from 1/1/1999
and my great problem to have a good and real numbers for result is this problem when i have solved this problems i will give you the complete result of about 105 monthes back test of this system
  • #507
  • Nov 13, 2007 7:32am Nov 13, 2007 7:32am
Quoting fxramin
we can not have a great bak test of this system beacause for example we put buy stop in 237.00 and in one bullish candle we see that it is actived and some bull candle after this candle says to us that it is hit tp

but we see that h/l/open/close of this candle is for example this 237.35
236.15 open: 236.65 close :237.20
this is just example and problem is that we dont know the sequence of this prices if first it went to high and actived our pending and then went to low so we hit sl but we may see it is bullish after this are some bullish candles so it is tp but in real it is hit sl

how can we solve this problem in our backtests
sequence of prices of one candle which was first h/l/open /close or .....

i think it is the most importnt thing in our backtest

i am workin in this method and i have backtested this system from 1/1/1999
and my great problem to have a good and real numbers for result is this problem when i have solved this problems i will give you the complete result of about 105 monthes back test of this system

This is the problem with back testing. You can try to resolve things by breaking it down to smaller time frames, and often that does work. But eventually you will always find the odd 1 minute candle that still doesn't answer the question... and then you have to search for tick data, which becomes next to impossible to find going further back, and is subject to significant differences between brokers.

In the end, backtesting is never better than an estimate of what MIGHT have happened. The other issue is that the market may have behaved differently had you really had an order placed there. So, the only truth is forward testing on a live account. If working with a micro position is too much for you to live with, then you do your forward testing on a demo account. This is most popular, but it is limited too, in my opinion. I have heard many traders detail how the demo feed from a broker doesn't match the live feed.

When all is said and done, the past is no guarantee of the future anyway, so you are going to be taking a risk whenever you put on a position. THAT is why you have such a high potential gain. Someone is paying you to take on the risk. Traders are sort of an insurance company for long term position holders and other big transactors. Sometimes you win, sometimes you find yourself paying out to cover the perfect storm (ouch!). And my friends, that is why MONEY MANAGEMENT is the ONLY WAY TO STAY in the game. We all have to find ways to limit our own risk. You just can't know everything, and you can't expect to always win.

Now if I could just consistently take my own advice...
  • #508
  • Nov 13, 2007 7:47am Nov 13, 2007 7:47am
tanx for your very great and hopefully answer but now how can i know what hapened in past and what would may be *(not exactly just maybe)happen in future for this system trading (i want to earn from forex for my life )?
answering this questions would be really important for me ?

thanx in advance for your help
  • #509
  • Nov 13, 2007 7:55am Nov 13, 2007 7:55am
Quoting fxramin
tanx for your very great and hopefully answer but now how can i know what hapened in past and what would may be *(not exactly just maybe)happen in future for this system trading (i want to earn from forex for my life )?
answering this questions would be really important for me ?

thanx in advance for your help
You can set your chart up on 15M and go back and manually look to see the results. You can go back for several months. It takes a while, but that is the only backtest that means anything.
  • #510
  • Nov 13, 2007 8:02am Nov 13, 2007 8:02am
some have had double losses i only had 1 loss and am still in trade #2
  • #511
  • Nov 13, 2007 8:21am Nov 13, 2007 8:21am
Today's result:
2 longs
-50-50=-100
Regards
  • #512
  • Nov 13, 2007 8:32am Nov 13, 2007 8:32am
Hi Gang!

I heeded Nicotina's warning to "play with small lots" for yesterday's trade. I did lose 50 pips on the G/J trade (50/50 SL/TP), bit Nico's "other system" with G/U made me 20 pips. So....down 30 pips overall for the night, but since I used $.01 per pip on Oanda, it only cosyt me $.30. This is the beauty of trading with Oanda, in that you can place any $ amount on your trade. When we had a 300+ movement in Hi/Lo price the previous 8 hours, it was a no-brainer to mitigate the $ amount of the trade.

Thanks Nico,
Bob in Wisconsin
  • #513
  • Nov 13, 2007 8:53am Nov 13, 2007 8:53am
correction on my part i was experimenting with an ea that didnt work correctly there was indeed 2 loosing long trades today the ea entered me in a third time which is not part of rules though it forturnately has recoup a great portion of my losses today
  • #514
  • Nov 13, 2007 10:19am Nov 13, 2007 10:19am
Quoting Qman
This is the problem with back testing. You can try to resolve things by breaking it down to smaller time frames, and often that does work. But eventually you will always find the odd 1 minute candle that still doesn't answer the question... and then you have to search for tick data, which becomes next to impossible to find going further back, and is subject to significant differences between brokers.

In the end, backtesting is never better than an estimate of what MIGHT have happened. The other issue is that the market may have behaved differently had you really had an order placed there. So, the only truth is forward testing on a live account. If working with a micro position is too much for you to live with, then you do your forward testing on a demo account. This is most popular, but it is limited too, in my opinion. I have heard many traders detail how the demo feed from a broker doesn't match the live feed.

When all is said and done, the past is no guarantee of the future anyway, so you are going to be taking a risk whenever you put on a position. THAT is why you have such a high potential gain. Someone is paying you to take on the risk. Traders are sort of an insurance company for long term position holders and other big transactors. Sometimes you win, sometimes you find yourself paying out to cover the perfect storm (ouch!). And my friends, that is why MONEY MANAGEMENT is the ONLY WAY TO STAY in the game. We all have to find ways to limit our own risk. You just can't know everything, and you can't expect to always win.

Now if I could just consistently take my own advice...

I agree at some points.

If you take a look at the chart back in 2005 & 2006, you would see how the market was behaving totaly different than now. 100TP was a tough one to score, 50TP was much more apropriate. How to improve the money managment is the way to make this a powerful money machine. Read my post on page 32 - #477. For Fxramin, when I did the visual backtest, I put in consideration the hi/low/close of each following candles after order activation.


BK
  • #515
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:47pm Nov 13, 2007 1:47pm
I feel a bit ridiculous asking this question, but after reading this entire thread I am simply confused on how to work this simple looking strategy. I use FXCM as my broker so no EA for me.

Can someone be so kind as to post a quick overview including the exact time the trades should be loaded, and where exactly to find the high and low data? I have seen a few contradicting posts on this.

I would greatly appreciate it if someone could post their trades for today in plain text form here so I could once and for all get an understanding for this strategy.

Thanks

-Kevin
  • #516
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:12pm Nov 13, 2007 2:12pm
find high and low between 1800 and 0200 set buy order at high and sell order at low it one side enters you in and hits stop you can reenter again in same direction or if it goes the other way for entry. only 1 rentry target is 100 stop is 50 worse case senario is 2 losses for 100
  • #517
  • Nov 13, 2007 2:22pm Nov 13, 2007 2:22pm
Ok, what time do we enter the trades?

Thanks,

-Kevin
  • #518
  • Nov 13, 2007 3:08pm Nov 13, 2007 3:08pm
at the close of 0200 candle we put in pending orders to go long and short
  • #519
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:34pm Nov 13, 2007 4:34pm
Another stupid question...

I use FXCM as mentioned earlier and they do not offer a 4 hr candle. Will any candle work as long as it is within the set time restraints?

Thanks,

Kevin
  • #520
  • Nov 13, 2007 4:59pm Nov 13, 2007 4:59pm
use 1 hr candle
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