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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,421
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:51am Nov 12, 2007 7:51am
just banked 900 pips on EURAUD, nice feeling but I was a bit jittery a week ago 200 pips down.
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  • #1,422
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:09am Nov 12, 2007 8:09am
Quoting cgldsmth
just banked 900 pips on EURAUD, nice feeling but I was a bit jittery a week ago 200 pips down.
Good stuff. I have been busy with midterm exams so I haven't hauled the pips in like everyone else, but what this does is set us up for that inevitable bull run back again. The BoJ will stand pat as usual, opening the door up for retracement of these moves. As the fundamentals are still agains the Jpy, regardless of the credit crunch. Any thoughts?
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  • #1,423
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:12am Nov 12, 2007 8:12am
[Nov 5th quote=cgldsmth;1698861]lots of downside for AUD, I particularly like EURAUD up to 1.7 level, it's bouncing off strong lows.[/quote]

just S+R and luck really.
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  • #1,424
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:22am Nov 12, 2007 8:22am
Never traded EA much. Do you see it at 1.7 by the middle of the week?
  • #1,425
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:24am Nov 12, 2007 8:24am
Quoting Fx717
Never traded EA much. Do you see it at 1.7 by the middle of the week?
easily, but I've taken my profit as the risk-reward is less favourable now. Like geppy it's a big mover.
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  • #1,426
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:27am Nov 12, 2007 8:27am
I'm thinking 1.6420-30 to jump in. Any thoughts?
  • #1,427
  • Nov 12, 2007 1:35pm Nov 12, 2007 1:35pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Fx717
I'm thinking 1.6420-30 to jump in. Any thoughts?
looks like nobody wants to talk to you. only joking.

I would suggest you keep posting EA trades, this thread moves slowly, but eventually someone will find you and trade EA. I personnally won't trade the pair, both the euro and the Aussie have strong economics at the moment and that leads to a less than favourable trend.

I trade EU, AU as they both trend real stong, the AU has some bigger dips to buy into and the EU just keeps going. thanks to this thread I am also looking at AJ, nice and trendy with some real big drops - stops the bordom.
  • #1,428
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:06pm Nov 12, 2007 3:06pm
Nobody has been short on these lately? If not, you guys are hardcore bulls!

I myself was short @ 0.9314 on AU in the middle of last week, only to see it go up to 0.9400. After a drawdown like that it is really hard to get into the profit mindset, as you're happy to just break even... and now I'd be a few grand richer had I waited a few days to close the position.
  • #1,429
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:12pm Nov 12, 2007 3:12pm
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
AU has just bounced of of a supporting TL which is supported by a 38.5% of the major run up from 17th Aug, this area was also the supporting area from the last run down which started 15th Oct, we have also spent the last 12hours in this area with little movment to the downside.

I expect this area to be tested down as low as 8750 before resuming the run up.

just my view and i have been wrong before.
  • #1,430
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:17pm Nov 12, 2007 3:17pm
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Subdude
Nobody has been short on these lately? If not, you guys are hardcore bulls!

I myself was short @ 0.9314 on AU in the middle of last week, only to see it go up to 0.9400. After a drawdown like that it is really hard to get into the profit mindset, as you're happy to just break even... and now I'd be a few grand richer had I waited a few days to close the position.
Thats why i don't short upward trends, been bitten a few times and now just look for better entries, that said i should learn to trust my charts as i would have made a bundle. i'm confused.

OK follow the trend - thats better.

Each to there own methods i suppose, but me i like to follow strong trends, as yet neither pair is outside there up trend and with the strength of the Aussie i don't see it changing for some time. these are just good opertunities to buy cheap.
  • #1,431
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:22pm Nov 12, 2007 3:22pm
I think we are presently looking a good trading opp on the AUD/USD. Hitting strong support around 87.50, strong up trend, strong reserve bank statements on inflation and a 5 monthly range around 0.0650 completed.

By all accounts this is a great risk reward trade.
  • #1,432
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:24pm Nov 12, 2007 3:24pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
AJ we hit a 50%fib which seemed to slow it's pace down a little, but we are through it, will be interesting to see if it closes below. Supporting TL sitting at 93.30 ish, depending on what day we get there.

The 50% fib lasted for 17days on the way so was very strong resistance and should be equally as strong in support. i expect market to range for a few days while deciding which way to go, then i see the bulls being back from there short break.

once again i could wrong, let me know if you see different
  • #1,433
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:31pm Nov 12, 2007 3:31pm
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Markj
I think we are presently looking a good trading opp on the AUD/USD. Hitting strong support around 87.50, strong up trend, strong reserve bank statements on inflation and a 5 monthly range around 0.0650 completed.

By all accounts this is a great risk reward trade.

can you enlighten me on the range info, or is that refering to the average number of pips moved in recent months.
  • #1,434
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:55pm Nov 12, 2007 3:55pm
Quoting MPP
can you enlighten me on the range info, or is that refering to the average number of pips moved in recent months.
Referrring to ATR. Volatility of the AUS/USD over the last few months has stretched the normal monthly ATR around 350 to 5 period monthly ATR of around 650. The current month ATR is sitting at 0.0636 halfway through the month. This would increase the probablity of a pullback and a tight stop not being taken out.
  • #1,435
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:00pm Nov 12, 2007 4:00pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Markj
Referrring to ATR. Volatility of the AUS/USD over the last few months has stretched the normal monthly ATR around 350 to 5 period monthly ATR of around 650. The current month ATR is sitting at 0.0636 halfway through the month. This would increase the probablity of a pullback and a tight stop not being taken out.
never used ATR, thats why i like the FF, same view from other traders using different methods. I would look for an initial run up of about 250pips then some friction before the continuation of the bull run.

so 2 from 2 view this as bottom, will be interesting to see what DT and KGB have in there bag.
  • #1,436
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:06pm Nov 12, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting MPP
never used ATR, thats why i like the FF, same view from other traders using different methods. I would look for an initial run up of about 250pips then some friction before the continuation of the bull run.

so 2 from 2 view this as bottom, will be interesting to see what DT and KGB have in there bag.
Nothing is a sure bet but to push the ATR past 700 is an unlikley possability seeing that we have seen very few monthly ATR's at that level for the past 20 odd years.
  • #1,437
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:14pm Nov 12, 2007 4:14pm
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Markj
Nothing is a sure bet but to push the ATR past 700 is an unlikley possability seeing that we have seen very few monthly ATR's at that level for the past 20 odd years.
this year could be the one thats remembered for new highs, new lows and break ATR records

looks to me like AJ is going for its supporting TL and dragging AU with it. if so i would expect about another 50pips down on AU and look to buy in cheaper at around 8750 or lower if you can get it.

to new to AJ to really understand it but it looks to be hungry for the extra 200pips below.
  • #1,438
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:16pm Nov 12, 2007 4:16pm
Right now we're at strong support and looking at the levels where the Oct pullback bottomed iirc. Now I don't have my charts in front of me, so I'll check that, but we also have to remember that the BoJ statement will be out and although the credit markets are roiling the BoJ not hiking will be a signal to some bulls out there to resume the carry, at least in this pair. Imvho the AJ will take over from the GJ as the Pound has garbage fundamentals. Just my .2
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,439
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:20pm Nov 12, 2007 4:20pm
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  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
Right now we're at strong support and looking at the levels where the Oct pullback bottomed iirc. Now I don't have my charts in front of me, so I'll check that, but we also have to remember that the BoJ statement will be out and although the credit markets are roiling the BoJ not hiking will be a signal to some bulls out there to resume the carry, at least in this pair. Imvho the AJ will take over from the GJ as the Pound has garbage fundamentals. Just my .2
Hi DT
so we can take that as a kind of agree but need to see my charts first.

2.5 out of 3 in favour of the bulls then

have you been away from your charts all day? I've got 24hrs with no charts and only access to my broker by phone tomorrow. what a pain, still hopefully the market will have made a choice by wednesday and i can make the trade.
  • #1,440
  • Nov 12, 2007 4:32pm Nov 12, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting MPP
Hi DT
so we can take that as a kind of agree but need to see my charts first.

2.5 out of 3 in favour of the bulls then

have you been away from your charts all day? I've got 24hrs with no charts and only access to my broker by phone tomorrow. what a pain, still hopefully the market will have made a choice by wednesday and i can make the trade.
Yeah, I have two setups, one windows with the whole shebang and another on Mac which runs a dual processor, the windows machine broke down and is getting fixed and i need to reinstall my windows on the dual processor Mac.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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