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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #1,141
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:03pm Nov 8, 2007 7:03pm
notes on chart
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  • #1,142
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:32pm Nov 8, 2007 7:32pm
I too thought longs were in play, but it has hit resistance at 238.00. I'm rethinking that maybe the uptrend will collapse, and it's back to the shorts. I still don't know.

Check out these trendlines, and dual channels in play. It will have to clear above 238.00 conviincingly...

(No sooner did I type this than it fell to 237.33, which is 76.4% of this last upswing, and back up to 237.78. Perhaps it will keep going... just keep these resistance lines/channels in mind).
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  • #1,143
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:47pm Nov 8, 2007 7:47pm
Check my count. It just might work out as such.

EG
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  • #1,144
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:01pm Nov 8, 2007 8:01pm
update

now possible to break to down side

EG
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  • #1,145
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:16pm Nov 8, 2007 8:16pm
Let us see how this will progress

EG
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  • #1,146
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:21pm Nov 8, 2007 8:21pm
Note that aside from EW Counts and FIB Retracement and Extention Tools, I have included a number of other tools like the ema and the Pivot levels. And earlier the Pitchforks and sometimes Channels.

They are part of separate systems I am studying.

But I thought it would be note worthy to bring them up as potential levels of resistance or support which strengthens the precision of Price projection.

EG
  • #1,147
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:36pm Nov 8, 2007 8:36pm
update
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  • #1,148
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:51pm Nov 8, 2007 8:51pm
check your oscillators

wave 2 may be expanding sideways as FLAT or a bigger Zigzag.

EG
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  • #1,149
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:57pm Nov 8, 2007 8:57pm
Yet one other system I've paid some attention to is price crossing the 100 smas, plus RSI(55) and CCI(50) on various timeframes.

I just noticed the Daily charts have now had two days closing below the 100sma, and it so happens, also the 200sma.

The RSI (over 50) and CCI (above zero) which are supposed to be considered at the same time as the sma crossings are possibly just barely bullish.

Regardless, I would expect indecision/ranging until the market makes a choice. The bears have a slight edge, IMO.

The Nikkei is down -168 to 15603.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/
  • #1,150
  • Nov 8, 2007 9:02pm Nov 8, 2007 9:02pm
There's also a daily bearish Gartley pattern on the Daily GU. Looks like the window is at least another 5 days, and GU could still rise to 2.1271-ish. I have a 161.8 fibo at that high level too.
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  • #1,151
  • Nov 8, 2007 9:24pm Nov 8, 2007 9:24pm
A few key S/R levels on a GJ H4 chart.
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  • #1,152
  • Nov 9, 2007 9:05am Nov 9, 2007 9:05am
It looks that the chart I posted earlier of a failed wave 5 proved accurate (see below) as price and broken through key support at 235.23 in a wave iii in a larger wave 3 underway. The USD/JPY has played out exactly to plan as it's dropped 400 pips since the first count I posted. The USD/JPY has broken through its August low of 111.58 as it completed wave v within a larger wave 3. Price should correct significantly in large wave 4 before it continues to decline to test 108.00, and probably 101.50 eventually. With the GBP/JPY breaking 235.23 significantly, it's about to follow suit with the USD/JPY and break through its August lows of 219.29, and much further!

I've already been heavily short the USD/JPY and just took profits at 110.60 from 115.50 and will re-enter a short at the completion of its wave 4 (a-b-c) correction. Once the GBP/JPY follow and completes it wave iv correction I will also go aggressively short the GBP/JPY to target a break through 219.29 eventually. The Dow had severe resistance yesterday where wave a = c and fib 61.8% which should be complete wave c in a correction. It opened down big today, but should recover significantly by the close and raise the USD/JPY and GBP/JPY into their corrections which will present another opportunity for us to short them.

Best wishes,

Todd
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  • #1,153
  • Nov 11, 2007 1:16am Nov 11, 2007 1:16am
Hi,

I'm new with EW. Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW.

Picture 1 which i count Higher high as no. 1
Picture 2 which i count lower low as no 1

So which one is correct?

Thanks in advance.
QS
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"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,154
  • Nov 11, 2007 7:26am Nov 11, 2007 7:26am
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Hi,
Could someone tell me which pattern below is the correct EW.

So which one is correct?
Hi Quik,
I'm sure I'm not as well versed in EW as EG...but it appears that count No. 1 is the more correct of the 2. I made a few corrections to your 1st pic.
Attached Image
  • #1,155
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:08am Nov 11, 2007 8:08am
Quoting mcv-exchange
Hi Quik,
I'm sure I'm not as well versed in EW as EG...but it appears that count No. 1 is the more correct of the 2. I made a few corrections to your 1st pic.
Mcv,
Thanks for your explaination.
Do you know where can i learn more about EW?
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,156
  • Nov 11, 2007 2:52pm Nov 11, 2007 2:52pm
I want to clean up and update my count for the USD/JPY and the GBP/JPY. The count for the USD/JPY has been clear for some time and been a cash cow for those with the same count . The GBP/JPY has not been clear however, other than a test of 200.00 was imminent, it was just a matter of when. GBP/JPY was carrying out a complex correction that made it unclear when the big bear wave (as part of large C wave) would begin. But Friday's significant break of 235.24 confirms that the big bear wave (of larger wave C) is now underway and will eventually test 200.00. The USD/JPY will lead most of the move and as shown by my count, the USD/JPY is due for a correction, most likely between 38% - 62% fibonacci. That will be a good time to aggressively get short on the GBP/JPY and even the EUR/JPY, and again on the USD/JPY, as they will drop significantly. Another element adding to my bearish bias and wave count is the GBP/JPY weekly chart that shows a clear head and shoulders pattern, where wave C will complete the pattern.

Regards,

Todd
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,157
  • Nov 13, 2007 10:57pm Nov 13, 2007 10:57pm
Quoting pips4life
Yet one other system I've paid some attention to is price crossing the 100 smas, plus RSI(55) and CCI(50) on various timeframes.

I just noticed the Daily charts have now had two days closing below the 100sma, and it so happens, also the 200sma.

The RSI (over 50) and CCI (above zero) which are supposed to be considered at the same time as the sma crossings are possibly just barely bullish.

Regardless, I would expect indecision/ranging until the market makes a choice. The bears have a slight edge, IMO.

The Nikkei is down -168 to 15603.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/

Good Observation pips4life.

I will check this out too.

Thank you.

EG
  • #1,158
  • Nov 13, 2007 10:59pm Nov 13, 2007 10:59pm
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Mcv,
Thanks for your explaination.
Do you know where can i learn more about EW?
mcv-exchange.... thank you for helping out.

quicksilver... try http://www.elliottwave.com. they have a lot of free material there. better if you can grab hold of Prechters book.

EG
  • #1,159
  • Nov 13, 2007 11:00pm Nov 13, 2007 11:00pm
Quoting I Wanna Trade
I want to clean up and update my count for the USD/JPY and the GBP/JPY. The count for the USD/JPY has been clear for some time and been a cash cow for those with the same count . The GBP/JPY has not been clear however, other than a test of 200.00 was imminent, it was just a matter of when. GBP/JPY was carrying out a complex correction that made it unclear when the big bear wave (as part of large C wave) would begin. But Friday's significant break of 235.24 confirms that the big bear wave (of larger wave C) is now underway and will eventually test 200.00. The USD/JPY will lead most of the move and as shown by my count, the USD/JPY is due for a correction, most likely between 38% - 62% fibonacci. That will be a good time to aggressively get short on the GBP/JPY and even the EUR/JPY, and again on the USD/JPY, as they will drop significantly. Another element adding to my bearish bias and wave count is the GBP/JPY weekly chart that shows a clear head and shoulders pattern, where wave C will complete the pattern.

Regards,

Todd
Great Work and Analysis Todd

I have beem unable to access FF website from my home computer since last friday. So I won't be able to check here and even post.

I do not know what is wrong but I have tried 4 computers from my place and none of them can connect to forex factory website.

I have also tried deleting all files and cookies in my temporary internet files and still I can not access.

Am I banned from FF Merlin?

EG
  • #1,160
  • Nov 14, 2007 1:25am Nov 14, 2007 1:25am
Quoting el grande
Great Work and Analysis Todd

I have beem unable to access FF website from my home computer since last friday. So I won't be able to check here and even post.

I do not know what is wrong but I have tried 4 computers from my place and none of them can connect to forex factory website.

I have also tried deleting all files and cookies in my temporary internet files and still I can not access.

Am I banned from FF Merlin?

EG
Something is wrong with their server, because I wasn't even able to connect to FF as well, so don't feel too bad
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