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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #681
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:55am Nov 9, 2007 6:55am
Quoting SeekingLight
Okay. Well my initial target was 109.30...last time EJ hit a long term TL it bounced gigonormously and I'd rather not have that happen to USDJPY

Here's my reason / what I am seeing s/r and TL wise..apologies for the trendlines in advance, I know you're a lot more picky about them than me


Still undecided whether I want to wait for the reaction at 108-109 or just take profit and then if the TL goes I can always re-enter. Probably smarter.
Based on monthly MACD going below 109.00 is a must. Will it be able to get lower? Likely. How low? I don't know, but 108.30 seems as a perfect target. Below that level it will be difficult to find any significant technical support or to project a potential formation. I also think if I stay in business for another 10 years or so I will get a chance to trade it at around 250 level.
  • #682
  • Edited 8:31pm Nov 11, 2007 12:09pm | Edited 8:31pm
Understanding the importance and measurement of yearly ranges as we aproach the end of and begining of a new year i took some time to draw bottom and tops of ranges on cable. Then measured them and show them on a chart. 2007=year (not done yet) 1984 = pips. and so i see that there is some room left this year for what would be considered an average range. still i can see why it might fall short reaching new highs this year as there is not alot of room left to move. but i was also wondering if A. I am measuring correctly and B. if there is a mt4 or even an excel import to find out the number exactly. thanks everybody

Found My Answer In MT4, go to Tools>History Center. Then choose your desired currency and timeframe, then hit the Export button and save the resulting .csv file. You can then open the file in Excel.
19780.2928……………19930.2300
19790.3500……………19940.2232
19800.3465……………19950.1493
19810.6565……………19960.2283
19820.3758……………19970.1631
19830.2252……………19980.1357
19840.3693……………19990.1412
19850.4600……………20000.2691
19860.1868……………20010.1428
19870.4155……………20020.2163
19880.2519……………20030.2835
19890.3291……………20040.2480
19900.4476……………20050.2498
19910.4098……………20060.2721
19920.5211……………


I think for the pound last 10 yrs average yearly move has been 2319 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly yearly averages.gif Size: 25 KB
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #683
  • Nov 12, 2007 3:25am Nov 12, 2007 3:25am
Quoting Igrok
Monthly GBP/JPY has a chance to turn into a huge diamond (most likely a reversal one):
So far it seems that I have been right projecting this particular scenario. The diamond on monthly is fully formed now. Next thing would be to see it to work as a reversal pattern.
  • #684
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:15am Nov 12, 2007 7:15am
205.20 on Cable is a must to fill up the gap on dailies. Also seems that AUD/USD will have to reach now at least 0.8750 level, which is the obvious target for a bearish divergence on daily charts.
  • #685
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:34am Nov 12, 2007 8:34am
Quoting Igrok
205.20 on Cable is a must to fill up the gap on dailies. Also seems that AUD/USD will have to reach now at least 0.8750 level, which is the obvious target for a bearish divergence on daily charts.
Igrok, This is a little off topic. I got the chance to get your book from Amazon. I enjoyed it very much. A very down to earth approach and your listing all those templates is a great idea. That should help inexperienced traders quite a lot. I just thought I would mention it...

Regards,
  • #686
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:39am Nov 12, 2007 8:39am
Quoting Igrok
So far it seems that I have been right projecting this particular scenario. The diamond on monthly is fully formed now. Next thing would be to see it to work as a reversal pattern.
Which price level would have to be reached to trigger the pattern / validate the pattern?

I'm constantly regretting not owning your book

Sorry if it's book people only info, but I'm rather curious about how it all lines up and where things would go...my next bigger "area" for GJ is around 221 and then there's already 207ish next

Not sure what the targets of the formation are, but a simplified projection hints at 209.50 (normal) / 197.60 / 190 (strong) eventually, depending on the power of the move. Confirmation would be a move below 219.
Would really like to compare that to what you're seeing =)

No obligation of course - if it's classified then I understand
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #687
  • Nov 12, 2007 8:46am Nov 12, 2007 8:46am
Quoting Igrok
Based on monthly MACD going below 109.00 is a must. Will it be able to get lower? Likely. How low? I don't know, but 108.30 seems as a perfect target. Below that level it will be difficult to find any significant technical support or to project a potential formation. I also think if I stay in business for another 10 years or so I will get a chance to trade it at around 250 level.

That would be that trendline / triangle bottom I guess

Thanks for the input Igrok...I will try my best to see whether 250 trades again or not and keep you in mind for when it does happen
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #688
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:09am Nov 12, 2007 9:09am
Quoting smjones
Igrok, This is a little off topic. I got the chance to get your book from Amazon. I enjoyed it very much. A very down to earth approach and your listing all those templates is a great idea. That should help inexperienced traders quite a lot. I just thought I would mention it...

Regards,
Thank you very much for your kind words. I hope you will be able to make some practical use of the ideas described in that book for your own benefits.
  • #689
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:11am Nov 12, 2007 9:11am
Quoting Igrok
Thank you very much for your kind words. I hope you will be able to make some practical use of the ideas described in that book for your own benefits.
I guess you can teach an old dog new tricks. I am and forever will be a student. LOL
  • #690
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:26am Nov 12, 2007 9:26am
Quoting SeekingLight
Which price level would have to be reached to trigger the pattern / validate the pattern?

I'm constantly regretting not owning your book

Sorry if it's book people only info, but I'm rather curious about how it all lines up and where things would go...my next bigger "area" for GJ is around 221 and then there's already 207ish next

Not sure what the targets of the formation are, but a simplified projection hints at 209.50 (normal) / 197.60 / 190 (strong) eventually, depending on the power of the move. Confirmation would be a move below 219.
Would really like to compare that to what you're seeing =)

No obligation of course - if it's classified then I understand
While my book is definitely not for the beginners it is not indended for master's trading either. I made it simple cause the initial idea was to show how the money can be made without getting into some complicated stuff that requires a lot of experience and pretty good skills from a trader.
Your question is different and cannot be answered in a sentence or two. The idea of such trading is based on making constant projections for the most likely outcomes. In this particular case the direction for a move on GJ was more or less clear after it made a confirmed crossover on the montly MACD at the end of the previous month. When the direction is clear, then I usually start looking for potential targets by using my imagination and knowledge about different technical formations. From my perspective and experience this particular formation likely had to become either a diamond, which is already in place by now; or, if the move down continues from here, it will rather get a chance to turn into a huge H&S formation. I'm afraid that for more detailed explanation I will have to write another book.
  • #691
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:33am Nov 12, 2007 9:33am
Quoting SeekingLight
That would be that trendline / triangle bottom I guess

Thanks for the input Igrok...I will try my best to see whether 250 trades again or not and keep you in mind for when it does happen
The trendline looks fine and as a quite reasonable support here, but on my taste it also looks too obvious to become a real deal. I never put too much faith into such levels which everyone and his dog find obvious. My guess is that USD/JPY either stops and turns around ahead of the line, or the line will be broken first and then another and not so obvious level will eventually serve as a strong support and a turning point. The next level below this line to serve this purpose seems to be located at 104.40-50 zone.
  • #692
  • Nov 12, 2007 9:57am Nov 12, 2007 9:57am
I also forgot to mention that my projection for 108.25-30 was not initially based on the trendline you were talking about. It was based on the low made in January, 1999. The fact that the trendline is now coming at approximately the same level is just a coincidence.
  • #693
  • Nov 12, 2007 1:22pm Nov 12, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting Igrok
I also forgot to mention that my projection for 108.25-30 was not initially based on the trendline you were talking about. It was based on the low made in January, 1999. The fact that the trendline is now coming at approximately the same level is just a coincidence.
KK..well, let's see. Seems we're in quite a hurry to test and see what will happen when we get to that area.

I sure won't mind blowing past 108/109 and moving on to 105.40-106.80.

Then the real test of the BOJ's patience should be 100-102

But getting ahead of things. Also very curious about GJ coming into this as obviously either GBPUSD or USDJPY has to do a bit of work to help it if it is to lose 220. =)

Thanks again for the input!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #694
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:24pm Nov 12, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Which price level would have to be reached to trigger the pattern / validate the pattern?

I'm constantly regretting not owning your book

Sorry if it's book people only info, but I'm rather curious about how it all lines up and where things would go...my next bigger "area" for GJ is around 221 and then there's already 207ish next

Not sure what the targets of the formation are, but a simplified projection hints at 209.50 (normal) / 197.60 / 190 (strong) eventually, depending on the power of the move. Confirmation would be a move below 219.
Would really like to compare that to what you're seeing =)

No obligation of course - if it's classified then I understand
Maybe since you are talking all the time about not owning the book you can ad advertisments to you slogan following the thousands of posts you do. My suggestion would be Wendy's.
so this
SIMPLIFY! - KISS your charts - "don't do more, do less better"
-------
"I will not fear
Fear is the mindkiller
Fear is the little death
That brings total Oblivion"
-Frank Herbert
----
no setup = no trade
patience, discipline, detachment
plan your trade, trade your plan
----
for truest satisfaction
try james trading on price action ;D
(dedicated to the James16 Group, public thread over here, check it out!)

Come eat at Wendy's try there new bacon double combo supercalifragilicous burger. And dont forget to go to James16 Group cus i posted a link for you to pay them money and stuff.
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #695
  • Nov 13, 2007 1:59am Nov 13, 2007 1:59am
Quoting telluv
Maybe since you are talking all the time about not owning the book you can ad advertisments to you slogan following the thousands of posts you do. My suggestion would be Wendy's.
I would never do that, their burgers are wayyyyyyyy too salty.

PA however is very tasty and free over in the normal J16 thread(hence the link to it).

Sorry the signature is so big - it's the summary of what I found to be key points in order to progress in FX and I put them there to constantly remind myself of them whereever I go so that they get deeply ingrained into my subconsciousness.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #696
  • Edited 3:07pm Nov 13, 2007 2:45pm | Edited 3:07pm
It seems that the diamond idea on GBP/JPY works pretty good so far. The return back to above 231.40 should be expected. Same thing on other pairs. AUD/USD has to reach .9170-90 level, USD/CAD is likely to target .9400 again and Cable seems to set its target at 2.0910-20 for now.
  • #697
  • Nov 14, 2007 6:25am Nov 14, 2007 6:25am
Seems like a broadening triangle is in progress on the Cable's hourly chart. It might later turn into another diamond but in any case more likely than not it should be a continuation pattern targeting higher levels. The minimum target is likely to be set at 2.0910-20 level.
  • #698
  • Nov 14, 2007 2:40pm Nov 14, 2007 2:40pm
It's a pity that cable has been unable to get to 2.0910-20 as there is an unfilled gap in that area. I was really hoping to get a longer-term short position there. Because of that unpaid debt it is likely that the market will still come back to that level some time in the future, but it's a bit frustrating that another delay will have to take place first. Same on some other pairs such as AUD/USD and USD/CAD that also left unfilled gaps that should be covered before any serious USD bullish trend emerges.
  • #699
  • Nov 15, 2007 8:39pm Nov 15, 2007 8:39pm
could be a stretch but i thought i would post this to get you feedback on possible diamond pattern - Swissy Daily
Attached Image
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #700
  • Nov 15, 2007 11:06pm Nov 15, 2007 11:06pm
Quoting telluv
could be a stretch but i thought i would post this to get you feedback on possible diamond pattern - Swissy Daily
Doesn't look like one. Usually if I can't recognize it from the first glance I disregard such a pattern. In this case a broadening triangle on the left side is obviously missing.
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