Same count here, have been buy @238.60 1 hr pin bar!!!
- #1,122
- Nov 7, 2007 5:00am Nov 7, 2007 5:00am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
have been stop out, ouch!! After read I wannt trade post, will step out (no trade) for a moment and let's see what happen
am still in. SL @ 300 per trade.
Current wave development.
EG
- #1,123
- Nov 7, 2007 5:10am Nov 7, 2007 5:10am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Let us test n demo trade the
1. 50% - 61.8 ( prev sub wave 4 ) retrace as sub wave 1
2. Pull back/down as Wave 2 ( 78.6% - 85% )
3. Beginning os sub wave 3 at sub wave 2 end
Or maybe observe this....
EG
1. 50% - 61.8 ( prev sub wave 4 ) retrace as sub wave 1
2. Pull back/down as Wave 2 ( 78.6% - 85% )
3. Beginning os sub wave 3 at sub wave 2 end
Or maybe observe this....
EG
- #1,124
- Nov 7, 2007 8:06am Nov 7, 2007 8:06am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
back to the board.
Here is my current proposed count after that large retracement.
The required complex sideways expanding wave finally played out.
It was not a corrective flat nor an irregular/expanding flat. But it was a Zigzag connected by an X wave to an expanded Flat Corrective wave.
If this wave 4 inside wave 33 is finished , then price will continue going up to the 241 - 247 area.
Final level will still be affected by the internal swings of the wave development of wave 35 yellow.
But the 241- 247 is the range based on projections from different reference points.
EG
Exited 2 of the long trades for quite a number of pips. one near the bottom of this move and the other as price started to retrace back up.
I did not realize the combination of zigzag and expanded flat yet when I exited the trades. But I was concerned with preserving my capital or what was left of it.
instead of being able to do 3 trades, I am back to just 2 trades.
My SL was enough till 235, but I decided to cut the losses and trade another day.
Several mistakes I made today were adding on to trade without checking the EW on the different timeframes, I was focused on the Oscillator.
Next was pulling the trigger when to exit an undecided trade even if it was on the losing side.
Anyway, Total loss for the day is 346 pips on 2 trades. I am letting the last Long trade stay.
hhhmmmmm..... if I waited a little longer or if I spotted that complex wave there before I exited my trade, by now, I would almost be back to recovering that drawdown..
Price bounced off
Daily Support 2,
Monthly Pivot
Weekly 5SMA
I should have realized that too. Quite a thick layer of Support there.
I'll take a rest tonight.
EG
You were better off than me Carman for getting stopped out that early.
I chickened out of my system.
Here is my current proposed count after that large retracement.
The required complex sideways expanding wave finally played out.
It was not a corrective flat nor an irregular/expanding flat. But it was a Zigzag connected by an X wave to an expanded Flat Corrective wave.
If this wave 4 inside wave 33 is finished , then price will continue going up to the 241 - 247 area.
Final level will still be affected by the internal swings of the wave development of wave 35 yellow.
But the 241- 247 is the range based on projections from different reference points.
EG
Exited 2 of the long trades for quite a number of pips. one near the bottom of this move and the other as price started to retrace back up.
I did not realize the combination of zigzag and expanded flat yet when I exited the trades. But I was concerned with preserving my capital or what was left of it.
instead of being able to do 3 trades, I am back to just 2 trades.
My SL was enough till 235, but I decided to cut the losses and trade another day.
Several mistakes I made today were adding on to trade without checking the EW on the different timeframes, I was focused on the Oscillator.
Next was pulling the trigger when to exit an undecided trade even if it was on the losing side.
Anyway, Total loss for the day is 346 pips on 2 trades. I am letting the last Long trade stay.
hhhmmmmm..... if I waited a little longer or if I spotted that complex wave there before I exited my trade, by now, I would almost be back to recovering that drawdown..
Price bounced off
Daily Support 2,
Monthly Pivot
Weekly 5SMA
I should have realized that too. Quite a thick layer of Support there.
I'll take a rest tonight.
EG
You were better off than me Carman for getting stopped out that early.
I chickened out of my system.
back to the board.
Anyway, Total loss for the day is 346 pips on 2 trades. I am letting the last Long trade stay.
hhhmmmmm..... if I waited a little longer or if I spotted that complex wave there before I exited my trade, by now, I would almost be back to recovering that drawdown..
Price bounced off
Daily Support 2,
Monthly Pivot
Weekly 5SMA
I should have realized that too. Quite a thick layer of Support there.
Sorry for your losses. I think you should have more trust into your wave counts because you are GOOD in that, but IMO you need a little more trust in yourself beeing a cool trader. I have never seen anyone before putting so much effort and hard work PUBLICLY into EW, so I am telling you, go ahead, you are on the right path.
P.S.: you should see other signs we are hitting some kind of bottom/reversal as you are working on other TA tools beside those you have allready mentioned, like:
+ divergence (very strong)
ST stochs all down
major FE arround
previous w4 support
...
Take a good nap EG
Good luck and go on with your good work
- #1,127
- Nov 7, 2007 7:50pm Nov 7, 2007 7:50pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Whew. Boy am I glad I closed those trades last night. and increased my SL on the remaining one before I went to bed. That was a huge drawdownlike doubled while I was sleeping
.Anyway, since I am still learning this EW, it is thus best to use large SLs on LIVE trades so as to have more room while being able to work around ones capital. and have less trades. So that if things turn the otherway, it won't hurt that much. ( but it is still hurts
).But need to move on and pick up my books and see what I missed here.
My maximum drawdown for a wave 4 to still be valid was at 235.81. Bottom of that last move was 235.09.
Have to re-work my count again. I apologize to all those following this thread. Time to hit the books. It is quite hard to get a mentor for free so I have to work this oout on my own and hopefully others who post their charts here will continue to post.
This is I believe what most EW Practitioners get nightmares on. That is when they get their counts wrong. But if we practice good Money management, I think we will average out in a profit still.
I am posting my counts and why I chose to label them that way because it forces me to study and learn from others too. If I am right, then good. But if I am wrong, then I have to study some more.
Practicing will help me improve in this.
Thanks FxMt for the morale support.
To Pips4life for his programming skills and his extar ordinary thoughts on ways to analyze wave structure,
To Carman, money, I Wanna Trade, marketwavez, who share their thoughts and their charts.
Keep them coming my friends....
EG
- #1,129
- Nov 7, 2007 10:19pm Nov 7, 2007 10:19pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hey all,
Money is using the same chart I did where I developed my original bearish bias on the USD/JPY since the decline from 124.13 and I saw an entry point once the correction occurred after Wave 1 to 111.58. The terminal thrust from the triangle Money posted could test 101.00. Thanks for posting that chart Money. This extreme bearish trend will drag down the GBP/JPY. Plus, as I said yesterday, the GBP/USD is due for a large reversal as all moment indicators have been in extremes for some time now and are showing divergence (RSI, Stochs.). The dollar is due to rally at any time, and I feel that some news in the either the ECB or BOE rate decisions tomorrow morning will trigger the GBP/USD to reverse and head down sharply. When the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD go down together, the GBP/JPY will follow. The correction GBP/JPY was completing was complex, but I have a possible count which I put in the chart. Like I've said before, like the USD/JPY, the GBP/JPY and the EUR/JPY for that matter, are on their way to test and break through their August lows. If I'm right that the GBP/JPY just completed a failed 5th wave, then it would might be a good idea to get aggressively short right now, or once it tests the top of the channel ahead of the rate decisions to catch the huge reversal coming.
Regards,
Todd
I was too engrossed with my wave counts that I failed to really look at how others including your's, Pips4life's and Carman's charts and analysis.
EG
- #1,133
- Edited 3:51pm Nov 8, 2007 3:43pm | Edited 3:51pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Thank you all for your charts.
I am more inclined to lean on a Bullish trend for today.
Agreeing with FxMt's Chart...
Attached chart is a 5min GBPJPY where an obvious 5 wave structure is seen going up.
I have not yet checked how this fits in the over all count but this surely looks like wave 1 going up from below.
EG
update: maybe the next chart will do.
I am more inclined to lean on a Bullish trend for today.
Agreeing with FxMt's Chart...
Attached chart is a 5min GBPJPY where an obvious 5 wave structure is seen going up.
I have not yet checked how this fits in the over all count but this surely looks like wave 1 going up from below.
EG
update: maybe the next chart will do.
- #1,135
- Nov 8, 2007 4:28pm Nov 8, 2007 4:28pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
new track
Must decisively wait for the 78.6% retrace.
61.8% may be too early for this pair which has been observed to do up to 85% retrace.
EG
Must decisively wait for the 78.6% retrace.
61.8% may be too early for this pair which has been observed to do up to 85% retrace.
EG
- #1,136
- Nov 8, 2007 5:23pm Nov 8, 2007 5:23pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Anybody on DEMO and trading GBPJPY.....
You still have a chance to try out the wave count on your DEMO account.
If you have SHORTS, Unload or reduce exposure. at or near the Daily Pivot at 236.83. better @ 237 then
Load up your LONG Trades or hedge your Short Trades at the same level or @ 236.85.
SL @ 236.50 which is just 1 pip below the wave 1 origin and 1 pip lower the level acceptable for a 100% retracement of wave 1 for wave 2.
GET READY.
EG
You still have a chance to try out the wave count on your DEMO account.
If you have SHORTS, Unload or reduce exposure. at or near the Daily Pivot at 236.83. better @ 237 then
Load up your LONG Trades or hedge your Short Trades at the same level or @ 236.85.
SL @ 236.50 which is just 1 pip below the wave 1 origin and 1 pip lower the level acceptable for a 100% retracement of wave 1 for wave 2.
GET READY.
EG
- #1,138
- Nov 8, 2007 5:51pm Nov 8, 2007 5:51pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
up to finish b.
possible attempt to reach 200ema on 15min chart
then down to finish c and start with 335333 small CORAL.
EG
possible attempt to reach 200ema on 15min chart
then down to finish c and start with 335333 small CORAL.
EG
- #1,139
- Nov 8, 2007 6:08pm Nov 8, 2007 6:08pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
maximum retrace for B otherwise, wrong count so exit if trading it .
or not enter short before that level.
EG
or not enter short before that level.
EG
- #1,140
- Nov 8, 2007 6:42pm Nov 8, 2007 6:42pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
bad bad bad....
I entered 2 scalps for this wave down.
entered 1 @ FE 100.0 and another near FE 161.8 at the level I initially thought was the limit up for B.
Then when it kept going up. I was also looking at anoyher platform from a bifferent broker and it showed price going over the wave 1 end while meta quote platform did not show this overlap or exceeding wave 1 end.
So at the short pull back, I closed the 2 trades at a loss 112 pips inclusive of the 18 pip spread per trade.
what skipped my mind was the possibility of a Flat or irregular flat corrective wave. The limit of 78.6% must be for the Zigzag.
Now price has hit the 1hr 100sma and the 240ema on the 15min chart.. Let us see if this will provide resistance for the meantime.
Reminder to myself: To Stick to the MAIN TREND.
EG
I entered 2 scalps for this wave down.
entered 1 @ FE 100.0 and another near FE 161.8 at the level I initially thought was the limit up for B.
Then when it kept going up. I was also looking at anoyher platform from a bifferent broker and it showed price going over the wave 1 end while meta quote platform did not show this overlap or exceeding wave 1 end.
So at the short pull back, I closed the 2 trades at a loss 112 pips inclusive of the 18 pip spread per trade.
what skipped my mind was the possibility of a Flat or irregular flat corrective wave. The limit of 78.6% must be for the Zigzag.
Now price has hit the 1hr 100sma and the 240ema on the 15min chart.. Let us see if this will provide resistance for the meantime.
Reminder to myself: To Stick to the MAIN TREND.
EG
