Joined Apr 2007
I'm not that good at predictions, so with that in mind... to me it feels like we're right on the edge, and it's starting to turn bearish for GJ/UJ/GU (all three).
Some people think there's more upside for GU, and if they're right, that will pull up GJ, and GJ will pull up UJ because it follows the pattern more-or-less, just a lot less than GJ does (because if GU is up, G is up more so, relative to U).
I've talked about Fibo Retracement lines used as forward-looking projections. Here's a Weekly GU chart. Note where I've circled towards the start of each set of Fibo lines. That's the basis for the entire 5-wave. Note how twice it hit the 100% target lines. Now, we're in big Wave-5 (Are we Sub 5 or Sub 3? That's the big question). The start of this 5 was tentative, hence the first Wave 1 &2 are small, so the 61.8% line is lower than the others. In such cases, I would expect it to pick up steam and exceed 100%, and it does.
If the current high is the peak, it's at around the -61.8% line. Obviously this line can vary up or down 100-200 pips based on the somewhat subjective placement of the Fibo lines. But I attempt to be as "objective" as possible, to fit the price action as the 5-wave unfolds, and it's at a reasonable placement now. (There are other's that are "reasonable" too, but which may end at the same price if one considers -44.0% or -27.0% or -18.0% as the final target, which they often are).
One must find confluence with other S/R levels. So then, also note the several trendlines in the picture. Connect past key highs and lows as I did, and you'll see a big confluence of several TL's coming together right where the current GU has peaked. It will have to break several of those TL's to move upwards.
Remember my hypothetical BIG GJ C-wave down, but what would have been Wave-2 retraced too high, above Wave 1 of C. You took this as a long sign, and perhaps it is. But perhaps it's an expanded flat and we'll see a big down wave?? UJ is very similar to a regular flat right now.
Either way, the indecisiveness of price action tells there is a struggle going on (as always I guess... lol).
Looks like the USD/JPY has started its 3rd wave decline as I had in my count that I posted a few days ago (see chart again below). This is weighing down on the GBP/JPY and probably won't allow it to make a new significant high above 240.28 unless there's a very large correction in the USD/JPY overnight here. The GBP/USD should rally into the rate decision then reverse sharply, along with all USD pairs as the dollar should start a large reversal. GBP/JPY looked to be completing a very complex correction so I've been waiting for signals from the USD/JPY of when it would break to the downside in wave 3. Will look to aggressively short the GBP/JPY prior to Thursday's BOE rate decision as that should ignite the GBP/JPY's wave 3 decline. The full decline should eventually test 230.28 and possibly 219.29 in a wave 5.
Ok. I broke my rule. I was suppose to wait for a 78.6 to 85% retracement as new signal for a wave 2 end.
But ended entering a long trade @ 237.81 Forward trade which is 98 pips less than your MT4 Platform values.
Why did I enter earlier?
It is because I was studying the structure of what looked like a wave 2 that was forming.
Subjectively perhaps, I observed that it was like developing a sideways expanding wave instead of the usual zigzagfor a wave 2. Consolidation was building up and the whole retrace was already at 61.8 on my mt4 chart.
well now... I know I was wrong as it has retraced more than 100%