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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #661
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:35pm Nov 1, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting Blackinc
Would've liked to have been around for this one..
You could have easily taken this position by just applying the template #18.4 even if you had missed the idea of a diamond.
  • #662
  • Nov 1, 2007 8:52pm Nov 1, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting Igrok
Monthly GBP/JPY has a chance to turn into a huge diamond (most likely a reversal one):
1. For the lower right diamond boundary it only has 1 touch point I can see. I tried to use the 07/2005 monthly bar, but my diamond doesn't have the same shape as yours. Is that line in your chart an estimate or has a 2nd touch point?

2. I assume you are thinking this month has already reached its top based on your chart. Is that true? If yes, why?
  • #663
  • Nov 1, 2007 9:46pm Nov 1, 2007 9:46pm
Quoting Snuffleupagus
1. For the lower right diamond boundary it only has 1 touch point I can see. I tried to use the 07/2005 monthly bar, but my diamond doesn't have the same shape as yours. Is that line in your chart an estimate or has a 2nd touch point?

2. I assume you are thinking this month has already reached its top based on your chart. Is that true? If yes, why?
1. It's an estimate. Rough though.
2. The top of the left side minor diagonal was at 241.47 while yesterday's top was at 241.38, which is almost identical.
Besides there is a confirmed crossover on monthly MACD at the end of October.
  • #664
  • Edited 6:06pm Nov 3, 2007 10:40am | Edited 6:06pm
This guy at jsminset dot com says : This is it because the US dollar has completed a major head and shoulders bear formation, pulled back to the underside of the neckline and thereafter declining below the major support line drawn from the beginning of the big dollar bull under Chairman Paul Volcker. Volcker made the dollar and Greenspan gave it all back to Asia.

The dollar break below the recent and most important major, major support line drawn from 1980 to now is the fundamental basis which will push Gold to $1650. The US dollar is without any doubt in my mind is going to .7200, followed by .6200.

The US dollar has now made a clear indication of the final head and shoulders; the massive formation from the absolute top is breaking down.

Whats your thoughts on dollar dropping Igrok - You have been trading since its rise from 1994 all the way to a now lower in 2007. you must have a comment on that.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #665
  • Edited 8:15pm Nov 3, 2007 4:05pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting telluv
This guy at jsminset dot com says : This is it because the US dollar has completed a major head and shoulders bear formation, pulled back to the underside of the neckline and thereafter declining below the major support line drawn from the beginning of the big dollar bull under Chairman Paul Volcker. Volcker made the dollar and Greenspan gave it all back to Asia.

The dollar break below the recent and most important major, major support line drawn from 1980 to now is the fundamental basis which will push Gold to $1650. The US dollar is without any doubt in my mind is going to .7200, followed by .6200.

The US dollar has now made a clear indication of the final head and shoulders; the massive formation from the absolute top is breaking down.

Whats your thoughts on dollar dropping Igrok - You have been trading since its rise from 1994 all the way to a now lower in 2007. you must have a comment on that.
I don't have any opinion on the fundamental part of this statement as there is always an afterwards fundamental explanation for any move the market makes.
In regards to the technical part I can say that the idea about "massive and final H&S formation" and the potential break of its "neckline" is a nonsense. By definition, H&S is a reversal pattern whether it's a regular H&S or an inverted one. In both cases it is supposed to end up a trend, which means that it crowns the very end of it. It also means that there is supposed to be a "body" this pattern is based on in a form of a trend, which is obviously missing on this picture. Since I have never seen a human being whose head anatomically replaces his butt (as you know, in some other sense it happens quite often) then the pattern, the author is referring to, cannot be defined as a H&S formation.
In a worst case scenario (and if any formation will be formed eventually) it is either a broadening triangle with the second main diagonal between the top of 2001 and current levels, which makes it possible to turn later into a dual-diagonaled diamond; or it is nothing at all and the trendline drawn through the lows of 1978 and 1992 is likely to play the role of an effective major support. In such case it will rather look like a huge triangle.
Attached Image
  • #666
  • Nov 4, 2007 10:29am Nov 4, 2007 10:29am
Just wondering how someone would think this is a diamond pattern - Igrok doenst there have to be a point at the top that meets the peak and at the bottom. i think this is a case that this guy is seeing something he wants to see
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #667
  • Nov 4, 2007 2:41pm Nov 4, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting telluv
Just wondering how someone would think this is a diamond pattern - Igrok doenst there have to be a point at the top that meets the peak and at the bottom. i think this is a case that this guy is seeing something he wants to see
I could think of a diamond on the USDX here only by analogy with the analysis on the EUR/USD that I have already posted a few pages back with the picture showing the projection of such a formation.
  • #668
  • Nov 6, 2007 11:15am Nov 6, 2007 11:15am
Seems like there is another relatively small diamond developing on AUD/USD dailies also seen on some intraday charts. Single-diagonaled one. If later confirmed and broken, the break should target .9800 area initially.
  • #669
  • Nov 6, 2007 9:35pm Nov 6, 2007 9:35pm
Quoting Igrok
Seems like there is another relatively small diamond developing on AUD/USD dailies also seen on some intraday charts. Single-diagonaled one. If later confirmed and broken, the break should target .9800 area initially.
How did you determine the .9800 projection?

That is a big target. This makes me curious about how you would move your stop as it goes up. Like a certain type of technical level, etc.
  • #670
  • Edited 10:40pm Nov 6, 2007 10:30pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting Snuffleupagus
How did you determine the .9800 projection?

That is a big target. This makes me curious about how you would move your stop as it goes up. Like a certain type of technical level, etc.
A continuation diamond is usually building in the middle of a trend. However I doubt that this particular formation is really a diamond.
  • #671
  • Nov 6, 2007 11:06pm Nov 6, 2007 11:06pm
Was wondering if i should look at this for a future Descending (2 Red Lines) or do you prefer to look at triangles like the grey slope/red line bottom.
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All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #672
  • Nov 7, 2007 12:10am Nov 7, 2007 12:10am
Quoting telluv
Was wondering if i should look at this for a future Descending (2 Red Lines) or do you prefer to look at triangles like the grey slope/red line bottom.
Personally I like this one:
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  • #673
  • Nov 7, 2007 11:12pm Nov 7, 2007 11:12pm
Just wondered if you had some template you would have chosen for the JPY move of yesterday. I am looking at the charts and various time frames and I cant or am not 100% on any particular pattern. Thanks
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #674
  • Nov 8, 2007 1:29am Nov 8, 2007 1:29am
Quoting telluv
Just wondered if you had some template you would have chosen for the JPY move of yesterday. I am looking at the charts and various time frames and I cant or am not 100% on any particular pattern. Thanks
Template #18.4 on intraweek basis with just 20-30 pips stops and you could have taken the entire range.
  • #675
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:41pm Nov 8, 2007 7:41pm
So the swissy has broken support..
  • #676
  • Nov 9, 2007 2:10am Nov 9, 2007 2:10am
Quoting Blackinc
So the swissy has broken support..
Swissy was the only one who didn't seem to form its average annual range yet. Perhaps also with the exception of the USD/JPY.
It's a pity that the buck has fallen that much as I was hoping to see a healthy longer term correction first before the buck gets sold out really big. But now it seems the other way around and on a very long perspective, like a decade or so, the EUR/USD will be doomed for a new historical low.
  • #677
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:46am Nov 9, 2007 6:46am
Seems like the USD/JPY is not going to miss an opportunty to run for a monthly divergence target pointing below 109.00.
  • #678
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:17am Nov 9, 2007 7:17am
Quoting Igrok
Seems like the USD/JPY is not going to miss an opportunty to run for a monthly divergence target pointing below 109.00.
Oh my

Well I sure wouldn't mind that...but it would move past that lower TL / triangle bottom...wouldn't that spell disaster, death and doom?

Simplified estimates hinted at around 106.85 here(other projections say 105.40 initially), but I cant believe it could go below the trendline. Or rather that people would LET it go there.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #679
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:50am Nov 9, 2007 7:50am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh my

Well I sure wouldn't mind that...but it would move past that lower TL / triangle bottom...wouldn't that spell disaster, death and doom?

Simplified estimates hinted at around 106.85 here(other projections say 105.40 initially), but I cant believe it could go below the trendline. Or rather that people would LET it go there.
I would rather place the target at 108.25-30. It's not exactly the triangle's lower border line, but have a feeling that this level might provide some good support.
  • #680
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:32am Nov 9, 2007 8:32am
Quoting Igrok
I would rather place the target at 108.25-30. It's not exactly the triangle's lower border line, but have a feeling that this level might provide some good support.


Okay. Well my initial target was 109.30...last time EJ hit a long term TL it bounced gigonormously and I'd rather not have that happen to USDJPY

Here's my reason / what I am seeing s/r and TL wise..apologies for the trendlines in advance, I know you're a lot more picky about them than me


Still undecided whether I want to wait for the reaction at 108-109 or just take profit and then if the TL goes I can always re-enter. Probably smarter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
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