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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,201
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:41pm Nov 6, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting Subdude
Wow, good call for me on getting out in time!

Anyway, what is your take on the possible outcome of the rate left unchanged?
I see a spike especially if they're hawkish, then a drop as there is still some uncertainty in the markets.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,202
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:50pm Nov 6, 2007 2:50pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
Hey MPP,

Do you use pivot points? My platform has an indicator which calculates that for me.I also use fibo retracement.

Hi DT

I use Fib's and i'm on MT4, I also have about 6 variations on Pivot points, so how do you use them as S&R's then, I get how they show S&R's based on actual highs and lows, but i was more interested in other ways of calculationg S&R's, you know the point at which a pair struggles to break through.
  • #1,203
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:52pm Nov 6, 2007 2:52pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
I see a spike especially if they're hawkish, then a drop as there is still some uncertainty in the markets.

I still think people don't beleive that the US can be this weak and are resisting the buy position, we had this before around the 80 and then the 90 area.
  • #1,204
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:54pm Nov 6, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting MPP
Hi DT

I use Fib's and i'm on MT4, I also have about 6 variations on Pivot points, so how do you use them as S&R's then, I get how they show S&R's based on actual highs and lows, but i was more interested in other ways of calculationg S&R's, you know the point at which a pair struggles to break through.
Ahhh..I usually watch the Moving Averages as well and psychological figures, such as the obvious round figures, etc.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,205
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:54pm Nov 6, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting MPP
I still think people don't beleive that the US can be this weak and are resisting the buy position, we had this before around the 80 and then the 90 area.
Yep I agree.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,206
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:01pm Nov 6, 2007 3:01pm
Quoting MPP
I still think people don't beleive that the US can be this weak and are resisting the buy position, we had this before around the 80 and then the 90 area.
For me it's more of the case of being uncomfortable with not being able to hedge against adverse market moves when trading FX - unlike equity options, for instance. I realize that proper money management is important, but that's an orthogonal issue to a trading strategy.
  • #1,207
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:06pm Nov 6, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting DutchTrader
My forecast is a spike up to 9373 then a drop, UNLESS the RBA clearly states they're hiking again because the market's priced in two hikes(this one inclusive).
i agree...bearish butterfly forming on he hourlies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.JPG Size: 56 KB
  • #1,208
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:07pm Nov 6, 2007 3:07pm
There we are almost through the congestion of 9289 once that is printed we should see 9350 and beyond
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,209
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:08pm Nov 6, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting mr.m
i agree...bearish butterfly forming on he hourlies
MrM,

Can you give some numbers on that chart? Thanks
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,210
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:18pm Nov 6, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting DutchTrader
MrM,

Can you give some numbers on that chart? Thanks
attached now.. sorry about the previous one.. also just to clarify the formation is a gartley not a butterfly (bearish) ...

to me it seems like an inital spike upwards then a doward movement; although if the inital spike were to be on the down side then perhaps a further upward movement could be expected.. all depends on the initial reaction (i think )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #1,211
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:22pm Nov 6, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting mr.m
attached now.. sorry about the previous one.. also just to clarify the formation is a gartley not a butterfly (bearish) ...

to me it seems like an inital spike upwards then a doward movement; although if the inital spike were to be on the down side then perhaps a further upward movement could be expected.. all depends on the initial reaction (i think )
I am expecting a spike towards 9373 then a downward thrust, all depending on the statement of course. Plus we will likely see profit taking and then bidding into London/NY
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,212
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:29pm Nov 6, 2007 3:29pm
9333 is the 1st weekly pivot based resistance level i have one order at that level to short (no sl yet)... if the spike however raises further, ill wait for a confirmation and dollar cost my short.. lets see how things play out..

thanks for sharing and goodluck!
  • #1,213
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:34pm Nov 6, 2007 3:34pm
Quoting mr.m
9333 is the 1st weekly pivot based resistance level i have one order at that level to short (no sl yet)... if the spike however raises further, ill wait for a confirmation and dollar cost my short.. lets see how things play out..

thanks for sharing and goodluck!
I would move that short up beyond 9350
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,214
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:38pm Nov 6, 2007 3:38pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Subdude
For me it's more of the case of being uncomfortable with not being able to hedge against adverse market moves when trading FX - unlike equity options, for instance. I realize that proper money management is important, but that's an orthogonal issue to a trading strategy.
read up on Jacko's thread, i've never hedged since. he uses a anti-hedge system, you will love it especially since the AU trends a similar way to EU which is the only pair he trades.

Basically you use a 50pip trailing stop, if it get taken out you wait for it to drop another 50pips and then set an entry trade at the position you got stopped out at, you never lose a single pip. needs reading first.

hegdeing is way to much like hard work.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286

just my view
  • #1,215
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:53pm Nov 6, 2007 3:53pm
Looks like we're going to steadily move towards 9350 by the announcement
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,216
  • Nov 6, 2007 4:06pm Nov 6, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Looks like we're going to steadily move towards 9350 by the announcement

what about AUD JPY ? any pivot points?
  • #1,217
  • Nov 6, 2007 4:36pm Nov 6, 2007 4:36pm
Looks like the promised spike is a lot more conservative than predicted by some of you.
  • #1,218
  • Nov 6, 2007 4:39pm Nov 6, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting Subdude
Looks like the promised spike is a lot more conservative than predicted by some of you.
Thats the credit crunch for you
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,219
  • Nov 6, 2007 4:44pm Nov 6, 2007 4:44pm
fxpredator,

107.80 is the weekly next level, on the daily 106.87 is next.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,220
  • Nov 6, 2007 4:47pm Nov 6, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting DutchTrader
fxpredator,

107.80 is the weekly next level, on the daily 106.87 is next.

thanks a lot, my friend

wish you luck

FXP
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