Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Price action on the 30min and the 1hour charts.

EG

Don't over rely on pin bar, manytimes, they are fake! But if a pin bar which is lie outside the bollinger band, I will see what happen and see if that pin bar are match with my EW count! Then I will jump in! The Red, Blue and Black Lines are just exponential MA , there are 50, 100, 200 and 365!

Also I think the Wave 4 is finish, since I have read a book it says Wave 4 cannot be retrace over 50% of wave 3, but i am not sure if this rule correct!

Noted that Pin Bar on the 1hr chart needs to be outside the Bollinger bands. Are you using default values for the BB?

Noted too the EMA lines you use.

I myself try to watch the 5SMAs of 1hr, 4hr, Daily and Weekly from Auslanco's Thread, then there is the 50EMA and the 100SMA of Hakuna I think also from the same thread.

It is a good reminder that yopu brought up that issue where wave 4 is only allowed to retrace up to 50% of wave 3.

I will check on this again now.

It is always good to be able to discuss EW with you. Keeps me on my toes and also learning from you.

Thank you

EG

Carman....

Just went thru my notes....

50% is the normal maximum of a wave 4 to retrace wave 3 in my notes.

But it is possible for wave 4 to make more than 50% retracement of wave 3 and this increases the chance of a wave 5 Failure.

So if this wave 4 does come down again and exceeds 50% retracement of wave 3, then we could expect a Potential Failure or a Truncated 5th wave after that.

EG

Yes, the BB bands are default setting! But don't look pin bar at less than 1 hr chart, there are useless i think! For the EMA, I just want to remind myself what's the trend is, I don't look for them as a resistance or support!
I am a beginner of EW count, so we learn together! It's very good if we can discuss our count to improve our skill! I think Traex from Harmonic Wave Journal is suberB in counting! http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23569 I always look at her chart!
Also marketwavez from http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f59/s...4/page200.html are very good too!

all 5 TF Price action and Fibos

EG

Pin Bars

How about these 2 charts Carman?

EG

Carman..

Your wave 4 on my chart narrowly missed the 50% retracement of wave 3 by just 1 pip. 50% is at 237.07 and my wave 4 low is at 237.08.

Just 1 pip.

Now whether it it goes more than 50% or not... the fact that it narrowly missed the 50% level...

add the fact that 30min and the 1hour stochs are at over bought levels while the 4hour stoch is still at 62.... for me nothing is still definite.

EG

hello EG your analysis of EW is an interesting one.unfortunately for me my knowledge of this theory is a very shallow one,Is there a way you can still ?

Carman...

You are probably correct that we are now in Wave 5.

15min chart shows a 4 wave divison with a potential wave 5 nearing completion.

Based on the rule of wave equality, we may have the wave 1 = wave 5 now since wave 3 is 161.8% of Wave 1.

EG

I haven't entered at these 2 pins, because I am still waiting for target, but I have close half at 238.89 already..

Pls disregard above chart. wrong point of references for the FIB extention tool.

EG

Proposed Route incase the Guideline for Wave Equality Plays out.

EG

Eg,
We are now in the same count, hope we reach the target soon!!!

Exploring Elliott Waves Further and Tracking Price Probable Routes.

I hope to get back to this next week or by the end of this week and see how price actually turns out with its route.

EG

Must not breach 239.31 to be a valid wave 4.

Then it goes up to 239.75 before coming down for the Wave 4 in the 1 hour chart.

Check your charts how price bounced off that breaching limit so as not to invalidate the wave count.

EG

While waiting for this wave 5 on the 15min chart to play out, I tried coming up with a Price Route up to the Daily.

This somehow lines up with my projections from the monthly chart.

As to how long it is expected to play out IF EVER IT DOES..... we will just have to keep riding the waves.

EG

1. Long and TP @ 239.75
2. Short from 239.75 and TP @ 238.76 which is 38.2% retracement or you can go for the 50% retrace. However, it is more advisable not to take this wave 4 counter trade. but to wait till it dips to 238.76 before Putting in your Long Trade.
3. Then Add a nother Long Trade if it dips to the 50% retracement as a BONUS. Then ride it out till the end of wave 33 Yellow on the 1 hour chart.
4. Expect a retrace for the wave 4 on the 1hour chart going down to 238.86 for the 38.2% retrace. Add a Long Trade then another bonus Long Trade if it gets down to 50% retrace @ 237.70.
5. From here Ride those Long Trades till it reaches Wave 3 Red on the Daily @ 258.89.

That means the Carry trades are back in the game.

EG

If you make money from this Analysis.... Kindly donate to Charity of your Choice.

Thank you.

Sorry I did not see this earlier.

What do you mean by "IS there a way you can still"?

EG

239.31 has been breached.

So now on to the wave 4 retracement of wave 3 down to 238.89 @ 38.2%

EG