Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Possible price direction now.

Got trapped in the Ichimoku cloud.

Facing resistance at the Weekly Pivot.

Based on a Possible wave count, this is supposed to be a wave 4 up with a maximum retracement towards 238.71

If it goes higher, most likely we are back on the Bull trend and is now on the wave stretch to the top.

EG

Could still go up to 238.65.

Price facing resistance most likely @ 238.65 where 100 SMA and 100EMA for 15min charts converge.

and EW likely targets for Wave 4 based on Fib levels. see new chart details .

EG

Using a higher TF chart.... we can see the waves possibly developing as such seen on this chart from afar.

Those are the probable targets based on different reference points of projections.

We now see our oscillators turning down from over bought levels and price hitting the top edge of a downward channel.

EG

Elliott wave Counting for me as basically trying to map out Price Probable Direction and Route.

But often it is not enough by itself. It is best enhanced with a number of other tools.

Yesterday's trade set-ups for example and my Open positions:

At the start of my day

I had 2 Open trades
A short rade from Friday which was on the RED for almost 200 pips and
Another short trade I placed near Fridays closing high.

I closed the last trade for a 34 pip gain because I was getting mixed signals on my lower time frame charts

I entered a Long trade when a potential Long trade set up appeared on my options.

This is where I see the added beauty of using EW in my trades. I took that long position to get on the Long trade potential. If the trade goes South, I still had my old Red Short trade which would reduce its losses and could probably still turn green based on my Short trade projections as you would see in the charts I posted ( and which is somehow playing out quite well now ).

My mistake then was that after seeing my long trade turn + 20 then-15 then + 30 then went down again, I added added a long trade planning to speed up the recovery of the Short trade I still had. Unfortunately, I missed to see and check my Oscillators which already indicated that it was overbought at the level where I entered my Long trade. And worse I did not cut my loss when I realized about the oscillator. And much worst was I had to leave my computer to take care of something else.

Price took a plunge turning all my Long trades RED while my old Short trade cut my losses for that trade in half. I took that and got out for a Loss of 95 pips and increased my SL to 600 for both of my Long trades. That way I could be at peace and leave my trades running backwards.

If I did not have to leave, I could probably traded the 15min chart waves and should still be able to make some green pips while babysitting the long trades.

I missed out on the US session and still I was able to sleep without worrying about my trades because of my SL.

For some they trade with low leverage and probably tight stops. I refer to increased SLs as I have no way of changing my broker's leverage at this point. EWC together with the high SL allows me to trade with less stress these days.

These are just additional lessons in trading for me. Still a newbie and continuing to learn.

EG

Warning - Do not be misled by my Wave 3 Chart on GBPJPY

I hope that nobody gets misled by my Wave 3 Chart General Direction for GBPJPY.

Bear in mind that after a Wave 3 comes a Wave 4 which could be a retracement of 38.2% to 50% or even 61.8% of the current wave 3.

So depending on the Wave 3 degree, expect a retracement wave 4 of the same degree based on the percentages above.

We can still make money trading the smaller waves inside this bigger wave degrees.

Do not trade using my charts if you do not understand the rudiments of EW Counting. Retracements could send you pressing your Panic buttons to exit trades prematurely.


EG

Reviewing past charts I posted with regards to analysis of Potential wave turns... I go back to the chart where I was still deciding whether perice was in a sub wave 2 of a wave 5 up or was it stil at a sub wave b of a wave 4 corrective wave.

See chart below.

Then check the chart above this post which should have validated the Bear move . there signs on this 2nd chart to have signalled a Bearish direction.

1. zigzag Wave A down
2. the 3 part sub wave a of wave B
3. the Expanded flat corrective wave of the subwaveb of wave B - (this I think is very rare that you see it fit the expanded wave definition and fib retracement and projections.)
4. the ending diagonal wave for that sub wave c

Get Ready for what I think is the Beginning of the wave 5 down.

EG

Update:
Waiting for a pullback towards 238.52

on the 15min chart
100EMA and 100 SMA split up at 238.62
now if the wave 5 down is soon to begin, then Price may still be expected to pull back up towards the Daily 5SMA and the 240EMA which are both at 238.71

hhhmmmm that is just about the limit for this wave 4 up.

Oscillators on the overbought levels now.

EG

238.44 @ 78.6% retracement

78.6 was deviating from the usual 61.6% retracement.

Highly volatile pair like gbpjpy needs a more conservative level which is actually the 85% or the standard 84.6% Fib Level.

Meeting it nearly halfway so to speak, I chose 78.6% instead of 61.8 and 85%.

Now we will see if it will work to our favor.

EG

and just as I post the chart...

the 85% gets HIT

EG

PS

Wave 2 assumption stays valid for as long as price does not go higher than 238.52.

If it does , next consideration is a breach of 238.71 . No breach will still allow the wave retracement to be in place and succeeded by wave 5 down.

But going above 238.71, will most likely put the BULLS back into play.

Wave 2 retracement nullified.

wave 4 not finished yet?

Looking at the 15 min chart now instead of the 5min and we see a potential completion of a triangle.


What are the implications of this triangle:

1. that we are nearing the end of a wave
2. that the next leg down which would now just be the Wave C might follow the C= A Guideline at 61.8, 100 and 161.8

However we also have to take into consideration the limits for this wave 4 retracement down.

EG

238.71 breached

looking at a most likely return to a Bull Trend

EG

also looking at price action as it nears 5Daily SMA and the 240 EMA on the 15min chart.

But oscillators are at over bought levels now

new point of reference for a potential move downwards.

EG

Price has already gone above the 15min Ichimoku cloud and is trying to reach 239.03 athe Murrey Math (4/8 Level) which is a strong Support and Resistance Level.

Aside from this as you can see on the abobe chart and also as somebody else has pointed out There is a downward trendline that price is trying to breach. That trendline starts from Nov 2.

Observe too price action on the 15min chart and you will see that price is forming Ca
ndlesticks which have longer wicks than their bodies which could mean that Buyers are trying to grab the market but are being pushed back by the Bears.

Frankfurt and London Sessions are nearing .

Let us wait which one they favor.

EG

I had 2 Long Trades and 2 short trades.

I am letting go of 1 long trade infavor of my 2 short trades now.

Closed a long trade for 50 pips loss which included an 18 pip spread and a bonus 4 pip swap. Net Loss was 50 pips.

maintaining 1 long trade which is at -76 pips now. Will nurse that while staying on my short trades which are both still on the negative too @ -56 and -90.

I prefer or am bias short for now looking at the wave C down of this wave 4 down.. retracement of Wave 3.

EG

I may have exited that Long trade a bit early.

But this some how looks good for my other Long trade as a Potential Bearish Gartley is forming on the 15 min chart.

EG

hi eg,

This is my count for GJ.... I have entered on pin bar at 237.62 and now considering exit half or exit all of my trades, since I think this is subwave 1 of Wave 5, please see my chart!!!

Nice going there Carman..

Thank you for sharing your chart with us.

I was working on my charts the past hour and when I checked the 1horuchart, I found that I may need to adjust my counts. Now your charts are more like it. Where we now both have a wave 3 top 241.35

But I still have my doubts as to the finish of our wave 4 down.

My thoughts are that it is still possible for another leg down to finish near a C = A x ( almost 100 ). Price has achieved C = A x 78.6 there abouts if we look at that wave 4 of yours.

BTW, Thank youfor mentioning your Pin Bar Triggers for Entry on the 1 hour. I will see and would most probably be incorporating that in my tool box for trading.

What are those Yellow, Red, Blue and Black Lines on your chart?

EG

PS
a Bearish Harmonic Wave has already reached its maximum formation on the 15 min chart.

Oscillators are really overbought

You just might get your new Pinbar for this hour...

Attached is the Chart I posted earlier.

Monday was a downturn instead of up trend since the expanded Flat wave 4 did not materialize.

However, wave 4 seemed to have turned into a more complex wave or into a bigger breath of corrective wave by expanding sideways.

Now I am looking at this going down from 239.59 on my chart most likely towards 235.81 which is the maximum for this wave 4 to dip.

If it goes lower than 235.81, then we are probably back to the Bear trend.

But as it goes down, following levels are to watch out for as levels of resistance:

238.41 - 1hr 100 EMA
238.35 - Weekly and Daily Pivot
236.95 - Monthly Pivot and the Daily S1
235.75 - Daily S2
235.35 - Weekly S1
234.38 - Daily S3

If price were to close now, a bearish engulfing candle will be seen on the 1hour chart hugging a Pin Bar.

Then a Pin Bar is almost forming in the 4hour chart.

EG