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  • #2,941
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:23pm Nov 2, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I agree with you, BoredtoLose, this is really insane. They say "the market is always right"....so I must be out of touch. I will wait for some sort of retacement next week as well, and if we keep going north to 1.46, 1.47, and beyond, then I too will be closing my shorts and will not trade this pair anymore. It seems that any news, good or bad, is a reason to bid the Euro higher. I guess when it hits 1.50 and US Exports go through the roof pushing the NFP's even higher, that will be a signal to send it to 1.60!!!! I get scared when logic leaves the building and irrational price action rules the day!
Me too ... if the big boys will not intervene soon, I'm leaving this pair ... Also, if the Euro continues to climb higher against the dollar, businesses here in the US will stop buying crap from Europe ...
  • #2,942
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:31pm Nov 2, 2007 12:31pm
A large American bank helped cap the early rally by selling a sh#t ton at .4500.

Payrolls almost doubled.

Factory orders painted positive.

Every lagging indicator (RSI, etc) is showing overbought signals.

GDP came in at 3.9% vs 3.1% expectation surprising every talking head.

Yet EURUSD continues it's irrational ascent.

I promise you'll hear every reason in the world why the this pair is still climbing but the honest analyst will tell you...

I'm at a loss.

Join the club.
  • #2,943
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:40pm Nov 2, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting acumen
A large American bank helped cap the early rally by selling a sh#t ton at .4500.

Payrolls almost doubled.

Factory orders painted positive.

Every lagging indicator (RSI, etc) is showing overbought signals.

GDP came in at 3.9% vs 3.1% expectation surprising every talking head.

Yet EURUSD continues it's irrational ascent.

I promise you'll hear every reason in the world why the this pair is still climbing but the honest analyst will tell you...

I'm at a loss.

Join the club.
I'm already a member of your club ...
  • #2,944
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:51pm Nov 2, 2007 12:51pm
no loss,...still long from 1.31...
its just money
  • #2,945
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:54pm Nov 2, 2007 12:54pm
Now it is starting to go down.

It has to be same reason as 11/01/07 12:00 (EST).

and

ECB's Weber says risks to global and German economies have increased; upswing will continue at a slower pace; no reason for pessimism over economic outlook

but I believe USD will start to act next week.
  • #2,946
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:59pm Nov 2, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting cleannnnn
Now it is starting to go down.

It has to be same reason as 11/01/07 12:00 (EST).

and

ECB's Weber says risks to global and German economies have increased; upswing will continue at a slower pace; no reason for pessimism over economic outlook

but I believe USD will start to act next week.
Well, USD better act soon, it's been bitch-slapped for a while now ... it better come back with a vengeance ...
  • #2,947
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:04pm Nov 2, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting de123
i agree...eur/usd will fall when next futures will closely comes to expiration (i think the fall should start close to the end of october...), but it may print few more highs, just like when it broke 1.30, it went to 1.33, so i expect now to get to at least 1.44 since 2 cuts are priced in, and 1 possible hike,...many ups and downs till then ofcourse,...and ofcourse this spike, might be sold....
well i did put my 2 cents here and there, so i just , when it makes new highs....
ii agree that the fall should start soon,..still it may print a high or 2....so i will skip that fall, and i aint gona trend it, until dec 16...but few scalp i shall afford,...have a nice weekend...!
its just money
  • #2,948
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:08pm Nov 2, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting Schminner
Well, USD better act soon, it's been bitch-slapped for a while now ... it better come back with a vengeance ...
S o m e t i m e s they are lazy as hell.
  • #2,949
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:27pm Nov 2, 2007 1:27pm
Don't worry...Henry Paulson still says he's committed to a strong dollar.

Although I think he may be referring to CAD,AUD,NZD etc
  • #2,950
  • Nov 2, 2007 2:03pm Nov 2, 2007 2:03pm
Looks like this week's market will end with the Euro dangling high ... hopefully it will free-fall without a parachute next week ....
  • #2,951
  • Nov 3, 2007 7:35am Nov 3, 2007 7:35am
I shorted repeatedly without stop loss. will short more on sunday.
  • #2,952
  • Edited 7:43pm Nov 3, 2007 7:32pm | Edited 7:43pm
IMHO its all based on the bad news coming from the US. The only thing really keeping the manufacturing base afloat is the exports attributed to the weak dollar.

Get used to the prices. You will see pullbacks but price will always snap back. Again, IMHO the world is changing before our eyes. Manufacturing here in the U.S. is going to get used to exporting and will not want it to change.

If you are shorting the EURO change your strategy. Look at the weekly chart since 2001. Yes, there has been pullbacks and there always will be. BUT- I just don't see it going back to the "Good ole days". There are many powerful forces directing the dollar other than just "The market" including business interests.

Here is what I predict and its just one man's opinion: You will see a pullback of the dollar (more than 200-300 pips) in December when the Fed decides not to cut interest rates again. That is the time to buy again. Economists predict bad news through 2008 for the US economy until this lending mess gets worked out. How bad it gets nobody knows but it cannot be good for the dollar. Interest rates will not get cut again until next spring. Keep accumulating after the pullback in December and make good money.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #2,953
  • Nov 3, 2007 9:37pm Nov 3, 2007 9:37pm
athalon7---I agree that the dollar will continue to weaken over time, because that is what the US wants to happen. The U.S. gov. could reverse the slide anytime they wanted to--they have a lot of options--but right now a weak dollar is in the best intrest of the country (in their opinion). What worries me is irrational price action. No matter what the long term outcome of the dollar is, the fed statement plus the +166k NFP number should have prompted a pullback by the EUR/USD...or at least a pause. Certainly not new highs wihtin 5 minutes of the NFP announcement!! This is irrational price action. I have believed since I started trading forex that the market was so big that it could not be manipulated. This past Friday price action in the Eur/Usd (and to some extent in the Eur/Jpy) is causing me to rethink that position.
  • #2,954
  • Nov 3, 2007 9:50pm Nov 3, 2007 9:50pm
I think eur/usd will continue to go up (slow and steady) for another 100 - 200 pip before slight pullback. It still not overbought yet. RSI 9 still below 60 on 1 hour chart. It will be overbought if RSI touch above 80.

This is my opinion. Don't trade with it..
  • #2,955
  • Nov 4, 2007 7:55am Nov 4, 2007 7:55am
Quoting 3013
I think eur/usd will continue to go up (slow and steady) for another 100 - 200 pip before slight pullback. It still not overbought yet. RSI 9 still below 60 on 1 hour chart. It will be overbought if RSI touch above 80.

This is my opinion. Don't trade with it..
Check daily RSI.
1 hour RSI is nothing.
  • #2,956
  • Nov 4, 2007 8:46am Nov 4, 2007 8:46am
I Think Another Cut In December By The FED Is Being Priced In To The Eur/Usd? But On The Other Hand A Correction Is Also Required. This Is A Very Difficult One To Trade.
  • #2,957
  • Nov 4, 2007 10:39am Nov 4, 2007 10:39am
As much as I am firmly convinced that this pair is WAY OVERBOUGHT due to fundamentals...I can't deny what I see on the charts: a very strong uptrend.

Hence, I believe it's gonna take quite some time to reverse this trend, even from a micro-trend standpoint.
  • #2,958
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:50pm Nov 4, 2007 6:50pm
Forget the charts, Euro is just overpriced and it will have to take a plunge before climbing again ....
  • #2,959
  • Edited Nov 5, 2007 12:14am Nov 4, 2007 11:48pm | Edited Nov 5, 2007 12:14am
FX-Petra- I agree. Very astute in seeing that positive numbers did not affect the dollar to the upside. This probably means obviously the pair is bullish and has more room to the upside. I'm not sure what you mean by manipulated. I would just say there are many factors, including business interests, at play here thats about it.

Its the age ole problem in trading Forex. The pair is in a huge bull market but pullbacks are inevitable so you must have a strategy to combat it or a huge bankroll and nerves of steel to withstand it. I trade multiple long positions in a grid system but have a hedge short strategy in place to combat the pullbacks with higher lot sizes than the grid trades. If a hedge short trade goes against you to the upside average down 120 to 200 pips away with another short trade and wait until the next pullback. Close your hedge trades at the break even point when the pullback finally happens. They are just there to help you withstand the drawdowns during pullbacks and your profits are taken on the upside trades, where the trend lies. Sometimes I will then trade a third layer with long trades and with lot sizes between the grid and hedge trades. The targets on those are very short and I must be very careful with those but the odds are with you because you are trading with the trend. Not as much room for error though. Just one mans opinion. Its very difficult trading Forex as we all know. Its a hobby for me but one that I just can't step away from.

I love my country, though, and don't like much trading against the dollar.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #2,960
  • Nov 5, 2007 4:51am Nov 5, 2007 4:51am
I am a TA trader, and i see sell on this pair. And there are several reasons for this opinion:
- the high of 1995 year
- more than 1000 pips without correction
- some fibo levels
- and also a every intersting thing, that most traders, banks, brokers, talk about bad things for dollar, so i think its time to buy dollar,
- also some reasons for buy dollar, that i dont want describe it
Of course i can mistake but my 4cast sell euro 1.4567-77 with a stop loss 30 pips, profit at least 300 pips. Profit you can also determine with a help of fibo levels. Good luck friends
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