Elliott Wave Counting with EG

the other side of the scenario and why.

currently having a bias for the continued move down based on other systems.

Right now that I know I am not that good with this EW Counts yet, I still employ or supplement my analysis with various tools for confirmation.


EG

Reversal now due to overlap with Wave 1 if up move was Wave 4.

Unless a bigger wave 3 down is in the making.

Now let us see if price goes lower than 238.52 which is the wave 1 high if this is a Reversal.


EG

But now as I look at my chart....

It is possibly true that we are now in an uptrend on our way to revisiting yesterday's high or higher.

But the worrisome thing for me now is that it looks like this is just a small wave 4 in a sub wave 1 going up. Provided it does not overlap now at the Magenta line.

This means that we may see this pair going up most likely encounter a bounce down as it touches the Daily Pivot and weekly R 2 @ 239.03.

Retracing its steps toward 237.63, with a likelihood of at least 61.8% up to 78.6% of sub wave 1.

Then it will be on its way up again.

EG

Note that this is a 1 min chart.

EG

Not really sure how to interpret the price movement on the chart now.

Leg 1 which is the Wave A of the flat corrective wave has a structure ( if it does not go lower than 237.60 anymore) of a Zigzag where C is just a little over 61.8% of A.

Should this be interpreted as a very strong Bullish tendency that Orice did not wait to accomplish a C = A structure for its zigzag leg?

If so, then it is highly likely that we will expect an irregular flat corrective wave. which means that we are also likely to expect price going higher than previous 241.35.

expecting 240.79 up to 241.16

EG
**** These details are not to be traded nor recommended for use in trading. They are merely supposed to be used as an exercise in applying Elliott Wave Rules As I understand it for now.

posted the wrong chart earlier

Sorry

EG

PS. Check your 30 minute chart on GBPJPY. There is a PinBar there which should have signalled the reversal. "I think"

We will see.

I did not notice that earlier.

This is really blowing me out.

Price has just hit Daily Pivot level and the weekly R1 just as I was expecting. Let us see if this provides as the resistance to bring back the price down to retrace 61.8 to 78.6% of the current move up.

almost a double top right now which should also get this pair to go back down

this is amazing for me also because as price went down to hit the Daily S1 which was also at a Murrey Math Level that indicated a possible reversal and recommendation to trade LONG and exit at its Strong Resistance and Support Level which incidentally coincides with the Daily Pivot.

In addition. A Beqarish Harmonic Pattern (though not perfect ) can be seen on the 15 minute chart.

Stochastics on 1min , 5min and 15 min charts are oversold

Price encountering some resistance as it hit Ichimoku cloud on 15m.

Also hit the 4h 5 SMA.

Is this just not AWESOME?

EG

I have exited a previous Long Position for a total loss of 32 pips inclusive of the 18 pip Spread based on above analysis.

I can take that loss now and if I am correct with the forecast I have outlined in previous posts, then I can re enter a new Long Trade at the end of the retracement which would most likely be towards the US session.

If not then I still have up to now a Short trade I entered at around 237.70

EG

Thank you very much! It really help me alot! One more question, is the wave 3 never been the shortest only apply in correction wave? Since Impluse wave 3 are usually extended, so this rule cannot apply in impluse wave???

Are you mainly focus on GU? Coz i think GU is quite hard to count, I will only focus on GBP but counting on bigger tf like 1hr or 4, have not try counting on 15 mins, since too many subwave and hard to count! I will post some chart if you don't mind on GBP!! Hope we can learn share out count together!!!

Carman

Carman...

I have focused on GBPJPY and not GBPUSD. GBPJPY is more Volatile if not the most volatile Pair. Gives me more opportunities to apply and exercise my EW Count Skills.

Price is supposed to follow EW Theory whether it be in Higher TFs or on Lower TFs. Lower TFs though are just too fast that I sometimes find myself unable to cope. This is the reason that I have focused on 1 pair so I can remain focused ( at least counting and labelling waves just for 1 pair) As I also am studying other systems along side my EW studies.

Go ahead and post your charts and we can go over them together or others can provide their insights too.

EG

Chart Comparison
Now Price probably consolidating before going down to 78.6% @ 237.90 before reversing.

or till 237.60

But if it goes lower than 237.60, then the EW Count becomes invalid.

Will need to get back to the Drawing board.

EG

This is my counting, please tell me if I have done anything wrong!! Thx
But GBP having a Pin Bar on daily, so not sure whether we are in Wave V

1st Long Trade @ 238.14 61.8% retracement.

next target is @ 78.6% retracement @ 237.90

if pirce goes lower than 237.60 then will close all long trades opened.

EG

How price evolved in relation to what I concluded from my EW Count

EG

I can't type and screen capture fast enough... note the FE levels as possible support. (It just broke FE 100 by a little)

Add FE levels to the earlier downward zigzag. FE 1.382 held.


We MAY have one more little push downwards if it's a repeat of the previous zigzag. See where I circled corresponding corrections on the picture.

Sorry, I guess we were done.

NOTE the incredible similarities. The previous zigzag had big A/B/C, where the final C had abc, where a=c=150ish pips. This zigzag was same pattern, and final a=c=50ish pips, but otherwise similar.

Retrace soon?? Deja vu all over??

WOW! Expand the timeframe on my picture a bit. Notice even more similarties as to the setup of the first zigzag correction.

Now if history repeats itself yet one more time, we'll see a slightly rising flat abc and then a diagonal 5th-wave downward just a bit more. Can't be that predictable, can it??

(And yet, I took the longs also; hit S/L on one, the other survived S/L by 1 pip, and it back to +7) Are longs finally in play??

Retracement for wave 2 coming up

Hallalujah. Wave 3 without a silly Wave-2 abc zigzag.