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Aussie Pairs

  • #1,101
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:00pm Nov 1, 2007 1:00pm
Long from the monthly pivot at 9146
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,102
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:25pm Nov 1, 2007 1:25pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

I knew it was heavy support, didn't see it was the monthly. BTW what are your thoughts?
If I were long since last week like I should have been, I'd be taking profits. With the Dow down 250 and UJ back below 115, and the rest of the currencies in all-time high nosebleed territory, I'm not a bargain hunter yet. I am (should have been) a bargain hunter at the 62.8 fibs, but not 50-100 pips off the highs. AU went up some 600 pips in 8 trading sessions. I'd prefer to see it give back at least half of that before I look to go long.
  • #1,103
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:36pm Nov 1, 2007 1:36pm
Quoting Trader KGB
If I were long since last week like I should have been, I'd be taking profits. With the Dow down 250 and UJ back below 115, and the rest of the currencies in all-time high nosebleed territory, I'm not a bargain hunter yet. I am (should have been) a bargain hunter at the 62.8 fibs, but not 50-100 pips off the highs. AU went up some 600 pips in 8 trading sessions. I'd prefer to see it give back at least half of that before I look to go long.
I think tonight will be interesting, we need to dip below that monthly pivot though. I appreciate your analysis on Aud. Thanks. I have 9161, 9104 and 9048 on the daily
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,104
  • Nov 1, 2007 2:52pm Nov 1, 2007 2:52pm
Well 9136 is here
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,105
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:09pm Nov 1, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Well 9136 is here
And a whopping 300 pips off AJ today, tempting...
  • #1,106
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:16pm Nov 1, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting Trader KGB
And a whopping 300 pips off AJ today, tempting...
To go short or long?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,107
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:19pm Nov 1, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting DutchTrader
To go short or long?
Long for a 50% retrace, 300 was a big drop for one day, even given its hectic 8 day 800 pip rally.
  • #1,108
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:22pm Nov 1, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Long for a 50% retrace, 300 was a big drop for one day, even given its hectic 8 day 800 pip rally.
Hmm..maybe retrace in AM in Asia, then a selloff in the PM
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,109
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:41pm Nov 1, 2007 3:41pm
Ok, I know I'm a newbie, but what is up with AU today? I understand there was a huge drop in the Dow, but 200 pips down??? This is still while the other majors currencies are pretty close to their peak levels of yesterday... I'm really tempted to just say "$%#@ AUD, never again!"
  • #1,110
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:43pm Nov 1, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting Subdude
Ok, I know I'm a newbie, but what is up with AU today? I understand there was a huge drop in the Dow, but 200 pips down??? This is still while the other majors currencies are pretty close to their peak levels of yesterday... I'm really tempted to just say "$%#@ AUD, never again!"
Aud suffered from the drop in gold price, profit taking there and the drop in the dow. AJ was sold off, and so was AU but tonight we party. With the NFP I foresee a run to 9300 again
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,111
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:46pm Nov 1, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting Subdude
Ok, I know I'm a newbie, but what is up with AU today? I understand there was a huge drop in the Dow, but 200 pips down??? This is still while the other majors currencies are pretty close to their peak levels of yesterday... I'm really tempted to just say "$%#@ AUD, never again!"
Well you have to take into account the 600 pip rally over the past 8 sessions. That's a lot of hot money momentum taking out stops and leveraging up, when the trend turns, those traders are going to head for the exits fast. NU and NJ are being hit nearly as badly.
  • #1,112
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:53pm Nov 1, 2007 3:53pm
Dutch,

Did you see our friend's view on AU over at dailyfx? Some of his EWT calls are lousy, but he nailed the EU and UJ recently.
  • #1,113
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:04pm Nov 1, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Aud suffered from the drop in gold price, profit taking there and the drop in the dow. AJ was sold off, and so was AU but tonight we party. With the NFP I foresee a run to 9300 again
I would be partying too if I had taken a short position around 9300 last night.
  • #1,114
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:14pm Nov 1, 2007 4:14pm
This thing is a monster, and right now I'm waiting to go long.

KGB,

Yeah they're lousy with that EWT, I stopped reading a long time ago and posting. Seriously. What is your take on the Aud pairs? I see a turn tonight.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,115
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:17pm Nov 1, 2007 4:17pm
.9070 area looks like a good spot for a long.

I'm down 140 pips from my long yesterday. Uggh!
  • #1,116
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:21pm Nov 1, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting imbiber
.9070 area looks like a good spot for a long.

I'm down 140 pips from my long yesterday. Uggh!
9143 is holding. Plus there's still the 2 rate hikes that have to be priced in for this yr.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,117
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:23pm Nov 1, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting DutchTrader
What is your take on the Aud pairs? I see a turn tonight.
I think a retrace this evening is quite possible and I'm contemplating a move on AJ. But all bets are off by NFP. I think we may be near a short term dollar oversold mark. If a high jobs number comes in and reaffirms that the Fed is done, we could see some dollar repatriation.

AU we're below both the daily and monthly pivots. I'd look for a buy stop at that monthly pivot level.
  • #1,118
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:26pm Nov 1, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting Trader KGB
I think a retrace this evening is quite possible and I'm contemplating a move on AJ. But all bets are off by NFP. I think we may be near a short term dollar oversold mark. If a high jobs number comes in and reaffirms that the Fed is done, we could see some dollar repatriation.

AU we're below both the daily and monthly pivots. I'd look for a buy stop at that level.

KGB,

Yep, NFP could see us below 9000 tomorrow. I'm eying a long on the AJ as well but not till London.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,119
  • Nov 1, 2007 9:39pm Nov 1, 2007 9:39pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Long from the monthly pivot at 9146
Are you still in this? Turning out to be a good trade, nice call on the Asian bounce.
  • #1,120
  • Nov 1, 2007 10:09pm Nov 1, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Are you still in this? Turning out to be a good trade, nice call on the Asian bounce.
Still in, locked in 30 pip lets see what we can do. What's your take? Because I just see this as a better sell level
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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