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  • #401
  • Oct 28, 2007 7:45pm Oct 28, 2007 7:45pm
Quoting sovo1970
Wow.. been reading this thread twice already.... still not fully understand the concept just yet. However, it helps me to understand about trading with the Fibs more than before..... Keep up the good work... and MANY THANKS..
Your welcome, and yes it does take time and seems difficult at first but in the long run it will improve your understanding of market flow and can help when applied with whatever method you find suits your trading style.
  • #402
  • Oct 29, 2007 12:21am Oct 29, 2007 12:21am
Hi there,

Of all the threads that i have read on this website this is still the best learning curve. I'm a newbie just started using fibs, your explanation are quite simple but technical. They are explicit enough for even a newbie like me to understand. Fib application are made clear. I am rereading this thread a third time and hopefully will get used to using the system. Thanks a million for this insightful reaseach from you Mr Bobokus

Don T. Gomez

P.S. I still do not comprehend the entry point. Is it at the break out of the Intra day set? or the range set? And must i always redraw the intra day fib set whenever a new swing is formed during a trading session?
Thanks for your kind reply.
"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #403
  • Oct 29, 2007 1:01am Oct 29, 2007 1:01am
Quoting don_tgomez
Hi there,

Of all the threads that i have read on this website this is still the best learning curve. I'm a newbie just started using fibs, your explanation are quite simple but technical. They are explicit enough for even a newbie like me to understand. Fib application are made clear. I am rereading this thread a third time and hopefully will get used to using the system. Thanks a million for this insightful reaseach from you Mr Bobokus

Don T. Gomez

P.S. I still do not comprehend the entry point. Is it at the break out of the Intra day set? or the range set? And must i always redraw the intra day fib set whenever a new swing is formed during a trading session?
Thanks for your kind reply.
Entry points are somewhat discrectionary to the aggressiveness of the individual trader, the breaks off the Intraday set can be considered conservative and use the swing fibs to help detirmine price movement from there, taking the breaks of the Swing fibs would be considered very aggressive.For the second part of your question the Intraday set is usually drawn on the move over the entire day and may include a few candles of the previous day or the day after, the Swing fibs are usually drawn on each individual move the market will take as a gauge to price movement.
  • #404
  • Oct 29, 2007 2:08am Oct 29, 2007 2:08am
These wer taken on the break of the swing fibs (high/low) area
Long GBP 2.0551 closed on T2 @ 2.0577
Long GBP/Yen 234.83 closed on T1...&Daily fib @ 235.12
Good for SUN/Mon early
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  • #405
  • Oct 29, 2007 2:10am Oct 29, 2007 2:10am
Capture of the GBP/Yen trade
Done for now , going to get some sleep.
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  • #406
  • Oct 29, 2007 2:55am Oct 29, 2007 2:55am
I've spent hours today going back over the last few months with a swing set and trying to decide what my discretionary policy is. For a while I kept getting more confused each time I thought I was gaining insight (only to see the next few swings contradict what I thought I straightened out).

I think I might finally be on to something, or maybe I've been staring at it too long and I'm becoming euphoric in my lucidity. My biggest problem seems to be when to execute an entry, and when to do it with a candle closing outside a level, or just blindly as price passes through that level. I'm sure this is the same question I've seen already posted today as well.

I've been trying to make observations that could help build a discretionary guideline and I think I've only made one observation that seems to make sense. If a candle opens within a swing range and travels right through the inside trade zone of it and closes just past the trade zone (long or short side), then it seems to have a good chance of continuing on to the extreme high or low of the swing at least. If that first candle makes it all the way up near the high or low extreme all in the one candle, crossing the inner trade zone fully and reaching the high/low, then it seems on the next candle it'll most likely go retrace to the inner zone again and bounce before continuing, if it was meant to continue.

In the first case where a candle crosses the entire trade zone and closes just outside it, I might consider an entry on the open of the next candle. I think this falls in line with the logic of having been in a position in the opposite direction, then price reverses and crosses the full swing trade inner zone, signaling an exit and reversal, except I'm looking at this happening all in one candle.

In the second case where it goes all the way to the high/low and not just barely outside the trade zone, if it does retrace to the zone and then go on its way back to the outer high/low, I'd just probably set an order for when it gets outside the swing altogether without looking for a candle close from there (it seems I would miss the opportunity if I waited).

Basically I've been looking at it too long today and I'll have to pick up the testing tomorrow and keep my thoughts nearby for confirmation or destruction.

As for when price doesn't blast through the swing trade zone and is just caught somewhere in the swing set roaming around, I'm still stuck for when to enter and by what type of method, level sensitive or candle opening. For instance if there are many candles opening and closing and ranging between swing long and swing high and some sort of consolidation occurs, there will be spikes reaching outside the swing high and sometimes even a close/open that turns out to be just noise, and I don't know what to do about that. For now I've decided to avoid those times as part of my discretion and maybe only take opportunities I can find consistency with.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #407
  • Oct 29, 2007 6:09am Oct 29, 2007 6:09am
I have no idea if I'm on the right track with this analysis or if I'm making excuses until it makes sense, but here's the candles that showed up after tonight's earlier target was hit.

I numbered candles 1 through 5, where 1 was the earlier target.

I wouldn't have updated the swing to the shown position until candle 2 was finished because until then, I wouldn't have known there was a new swing high formed, so candle 2 I don't view as having shot down through the shown swing long/short range, that candle was really just retracing to test the swing high of the previous swing setup after reaching the target.

When candle 3 starts, it's time to begin following the swing as drawn to look for another possible move. This is one of those candles in my previous notes that begin on one side and fully cross over the short/long fib lines as well as reaching all the way to the extreme High. Since it reached the high, I wouldn't take any action yet, I'd wait for a retrace to test the swing Long, which happened on candle 4, and recovered back in the long-bias side of things, so in theory I might set up a buy stop at the swing high now that it's shown a long bias, had a chance to retrace and test, remained long biased.
Candle 5 would have triggered the buy stop and hit the target area as of this writing.

As I said I don't know if I'm being objective or just curve fitting but at least for now it matches my previous theory of using discretion within the swing when a candle crosses the inner fibs all at once.

One thing I'm not sure of is if I'd keep the swing high located at candle 1, or if I should redraw the swing high on candle 3 after it's formed. It would change the long entry point and I don't know if it would mess up the true target levels. One thing to consider is candle 3 was lower and higher than the previous candle, it wasn't a simple "higher" candle. Maybe I'd consider this a noisy time and leave the swing high on #1.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #408
  • Oct 29, 2007 6:15am Oct 29, 2007 6:15am
Quoting Thexder
I've spent hours today going back over the last few months with a swing set and trying to decide what my discretionary policy is. For a while I kept getting more confused each time I thought I was gaining insight (only to see the next few swings contradict what I thought I straightened out).

I think I might finally be on to something, or maybe I've been staring at it too long and I'm becoming euphoric in my lucidity. My biggest problem seems to be when to execute an entry, and when to do it with a candle closing outside a level, or just blindly as price passes through that level. I'm sure this is the same question I've seen already posted today as well.

I've been trying to make observations that could help build a discretionary guideline and I think I've only made one observation that seems to make sense. If a candle opens within a swing range and travels right through the inside trade zone of it and closes just past the trade zone (long or short side), then it seems to have a good chance of continuing on to the extreme high or low of the swing at least. If that first candle makes it all the way up near the high or low extreme all in the one candle, crossing the inner trade zone fully and reaching the high/low, then it seems on the next candle it'll most likely go retrace to the inner zone again and bounce before continuing, if it was meant to continue.

In the first case where a candle crosses the entire trade zone and closes just outside it, I might consider an entry on the open of the next candle. I think this falls in line with the logic of having been in a position in the opposite direction, then price reverses and crosses the full swing trade inner zone, signaling an exit and reversal, except I'm looking at this happening all in one candle.

In the second case where it goes all the way to the high/low and not just barely outside the trade zone, if it does retrace to the zone and then go on its way back to the outer high/low, I'd just probably set an order for when it gets outside the swing altogether without looking for a candle close from there (it seems I would miss the opportunity if I waited).

Basically I've been looking at it too long today and I'll have to pick up the testing tomorrow and keep my thoughts nearby for confirmation or destruction.

As for when price doesn't blast through the swing trade zone and is just caught somewhere in the swing set roaming around, I'm still stuck for when to enter and by what type of method, level sensitive or candle opening. For instance if there are many candles opening and closing and ranging between swing long and swing high and some sort of consolidation occurs, there will be spikes reaching outside the swing high and sometimes even a close/open that turns out to be just noise, and I don't know what to do about that. For now I've decided to avoid those times as part of my discretion and maybe only take opportunities I can find consistency with.
Ill use tonight as an example of what i used for entry's.Since it is early Monday and may not have much range, I used a break from the Swing fibs area(the area I mark with the Blue and red lines) not just a break of the swing fibs levels because i wanted more confirmation that price was actually moving more than just a small ranging period.My entry's were triggered by Buy Stops set above the lines marking the swings high and low because if it did break the swings high and low there is a high probability that price will continue to the T1 and T2 levels of that swing. Wether price continued past them (T1 and T2) later or not didnt matter I have my pips and they are in the bank.I just reset my swing and its range and reset my buy and sell stops. Tonight price made a bounce after the first 2 trades and once it broke the swing fib area a second time got me right back in the market for a second trade on both currencies and just watched as price approached the Targets to exit.
  • #409
  • Oct 29, 2007 6:19am Oct 29, 2007 6:19am
2nd GBP/USD entry triggered.
Long GBP 2.0585 closed on target1 of the Intraday fib 2.0607
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  • #410
  • Oct 29, 2007 6:27am Oct 29, 2007 6:27am
2ns GBP/Yen trade triggers by a Buy Stop of Swing area.
Long GBP/Yen 2 235.29 closed at T1 of Intraday fib 235.90
and dont care that it kept going
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  • #411
  • Oct 29, 2007 7:14am Oct 29, 2007 7:14am
Quoting Thexder
I have no idea if I'm on the right track with this analysis or if I'm making excuses until it makes sense, but here's the candles that showed up after tonight's earlier target was hit.

I numbered candles 1 through 5, where 1 was the earlier target.

I wouldn't have updated the swing to the shown position until candle 2 was finished because until then, I wouldn't have known there was a new swing high formed, so candle 2 I don't view as having shot down through the shown swing long/short range, that candle was really just retracing to test the swing high of the previous swing setup after reaching the target.

When candle 3 starts, it's time to begin following the swing as drawn to look for another possible move. This is one of those candles in my previous notes that begin on one side and fully cross over the short/long fib lines as well as reaching all the way to the extreme High. Since it reached the high, I wouldn't take any action yet, I'd wait for a retrace to test the swing Long, which happened on candle 4, and recovered back in the long-bias side of things, so in theory I might set up a buy stop at the swing high now that it's shown a long bias, had a chance to retrace and test, remained long biased.
Candle 5 would have triggered the buy stop and hit the target area as of this writing.

As I said I don't know if I'm being objective or just curve fitting but at least for now it matches my previous theory of using discretion within the swing when a candle crosses the inner fibs all at once.

One thing I'm not sure of is if I'd keep the swing high located at candle 1, or if I should redraw the swing high on candle 3 after it's formed. It would change the long entry point and I don't know if it would mess up the true target levels. One thing to consider is candle 3 was lower and higher than the previous candle, it wasn't a simple "higher" candle. Maybe I'd consider this a noisy time and leave the swing high on #1.
Your pretty much looking at it the same way I was.Dont forget to look for where price is compared to the other fib levels Price had been showing long from the intraday fib of friday almost since the open, its just better to wait for some confirmation being that it is a monday and no news events were due out to drive the market.When the price retraced on the candle your referring to was only a test of the previous high that held (another indication price was going to stay long.).The other thing to note are the trendlines , the lower one had been showing support all the way up until price finally broke away from the high of friday.Zoom the chart out every once in while watching from too close up can be decieving sometimes just like watching a 15 min chart or less can.
  • #412
  • Oct 29, 2007 7:19am Oct 29, 2007 7:19am
My reset on GBP/USD since the target levels are reached.
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  • #413
  • Oct 29, 2007 7:23am Oct 29, 2007 7:23am
Reset my fibs on the GBP/Yen as well, may have to move the highs the way this thing can move though.
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  • #414
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:39am Oct 29, 2007 9:39am
hey bob do you think it will go down? and are my swing levels correct because if you see my chart my short price is 2.0592
regards,
BK
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  • #415
  • Oct 29, 2007 10:30am Oct 29, 2007 10:30am
Quoting bksujal
hey bob do you think it will go down? and are my swing levels correct because if you see my chart my short price is 2.0592
regards,
BK
Not just yet, its been very well Bid all day so far.Draw the trendline across the bottom of the candles like in my chart here.Gotta see that broken to convince me of short positions.
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  • #416
  • Oct 29, 2007 10:35am Oct 29, 2007 10:35am
hey bob so okay i learnt something there now please tell me why did you take the swing low as 2.0550??? you said 30 pips movement we draw new swing levels is that correct? Please explain
regards,
BK
  • #417
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:08am Oct 29, 2007 11:08am
Quoting bksujal
hey bob so okay i learnt something there now please tell me why did you take the swing low as 2.0550??? you said 30 pips movement we draw new swing levels is that correct? Please explain
regards,
BK
Sort of, we dont draw a new fib every 30 pips, we just want to make sure the move that we draw the fib acorss is 30 pips or more from high to low. The 0600 candle was just a small retracement but it did give us a pull to point for our low of the swing fib and the high to the point it began to retrace after the 1100 candle.
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  • #418
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:24am Oct 29, 2007 11:24am
okay and now since the first swing low was 2.0529 so you had added 30 pips to that which would be around the 50 area and fortunately there was a candle low over there so this is the way to go about drawing swing fibs??? I hope i am right?
regards,
BK
  • #419
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:46am Oct 29, 2007 11:46am
Quoting bksujal
okay and now since the first swing low was 2.0529 so you had added 30 pips to that which would be around the 50 area and fortunately there was a candle low over there so this is the way to go about drawing swing fibs??? I hope i am right?
regards,
BK
I think your misunderstanding the 30 pips, the swing fib high and low have to have more than 30 pips between the high and low in order for us to consider it to pull the swing fib across it. As long as there is more than 30 pips on the move being measured with the swing it is ok to draw the swing fib on.if it is less than 30 pips from high to low it may be too small of a move to draw the swing fib on.
  • #420
  • Oct 29, 2007 3:52pm Oct 29, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting bksujal
okay and now since the first swing low was 2.0529 so you had added 30 pips to that which would be around the 50 area and fortunately there was a candle low over there so this is the way to go about drawing swing fibs?
Here's 2 images showing a new swing that should be ignored.

In the first picture there is a swing fib drawn across a high and low. Now that the candles are moving up we are looking for a point where they reverse and start going down so we can consider moving the High of the swing fib to the new peak when candles reverse.

In the second image the candles had reversed so the swing was redrawn across the old Low and the new High, but looking at the price difference from this low to high, it's only 2.0481 - 2.0463 so the swing only covers 18 pips. Too small to work with so ignore that swing.

It happens that the next move down on the next candle (creating another new low before reversing back up) is also less than 30 pips, I think it was 29, so that would be ignored too.

This raises a question of what do we do while these swing ranges are less than 30, do we just keep the swing fixed at the original point and extend the low finally to that lowest point in image 2 when it forms (having ignored the 18 pip swing drawn in image 2 as if it wasn't a swing at all), or do we sit aside until a fresh new high/low swing forms greater than 30 range? I'm assuming this is subject to discretion, as most of my questions lately seem to be...
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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