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  • #421
  • Oct 29, 2007 4:08pm Oct 29, 2007 4:08pm
The intermediate fib from the daily chart acheived its Target today @ 2.0638..Now can they push it higher is the next question.
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  • #422
  • Oct 29, 2007 4:15pm Oct 29, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting Thexder
Here's 2 images showing a new swing that should be ignored.

In the first picture there is a swing fib drawn across a high and low. Now that the candles are moving up we are looking for a point where they reverse and start going down so we can consider moving the High of the swing fib to the new peak when candles reverse.

In the second image the candles had reversed so the swing was redrawn across the old Low and the new High, but looking at the price difference from this low to high, it's only 2.0481 - 2.0463 so the swing only covers 18 pips. Too small to work with so ignore that swing.

It happens that the next move down on the next candle (creating another new low before reversing back up) is also less than 30 pips, I think it was 29, so that would be ignored too..

This raises a question of what do we do while these swing ranges are less than 30, do we just keep the swing fixed at the original point and extend the low finally to that lowest point in image 2 when it forms (having ignored the 18 pip swing drawn in image 2 as if it wasn't a swing at all), or do we sit aside until a fresh new high/low swing forms greater than 30 range? I'm assuming this is subject to discretion, as most of my questions lately seem to be...

Me I will leave it at the last swing until another move happens that is approx 30 pips or the last swings area is broken via the high or low in which you would just pull to the next high or low that is made, you'll see it alot during asain sessions and during those days that the market runs sideways.The swing with 29 pips is close enough to use
  • #423
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:50pm Oct 29, 2007 8:50pm
See if this helps with your entry's. It may be too early to try and trade strictly from the fibs on a chart, so we'll introduce an indicator and see if it can help, over time you may not need it anymore.You dont necessarily have to use this one it justs looks good for the purpose. Its a ZeroLag MACD if there is such a thing, got if from the MT4 site i think.If this hurts more than helps we will stop using it.
I changed the settings to
Fastema 13
SlowEma 62
Signal 5
Added a level at 0 so we can see the break better

Once you add it to the bottom of the chart, we need to modify it a bit so we can see a clear signal.
On the left of the platform when you open the navigator if you scroll down to moving average.click and drag it over the MACD and drop it.When the pop-up menu appears change these settings:

6 Simple ma
Shift = 0
Apply to: First indicator data
colors are up to you.
and select ok

What your looking for on the MACD is first ...the signal line and the MA cross giving you the sign price is changing direction aggresive entry can be here if the fib levels we already look for are broken.The conservative approach is wait for the signal line to cross the MA then the center line....then look and make sure a fib level is broken
Exits are the same as with the fibs only (High and Low first then progression to Targets once the highs and lows give way.)

If this helps let me know and we will develope it as we go for the proper settings and entry's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ZeroLag MACD.mq4   3 KB | 934 downloads
  • #424
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:39am Oct 30, 2007 12:39am
Here's one of those consolidation periods that tend to confuse me.
When price first fell to the intraday pivot, also breaking the lower up-trend line drawn throughout last night's session, the bias for me would have been to look for a short entry opportunity, except....same old thing, where to take it, if at all.

At the time of that first touch to the intraday pivot, the current swing long/short zone was stacked right above the intraday long, and the swing low was sharing the intraday short level.

So I was stuck in analyzing it trying to figure out if I want to go short, do I take it as price exits swing short (crossing intraday long into the intraday zone, a possible stall), and if so, should I take it when a candle closes or when it just passes the trigger point... I was stuck for an answer on how to evaluate it, assuming things would go short eventually I had no idea how to take the trade.

Given that I am not really taking trades yet, plus I wouldn't know how to get into that one, I stood by and watched to see how it went. When intraday pivot was hit, there was a retrace back up within a swing zone of the down move from yesterday's high, with the swing as shown in the image. The swing short was penetrated several times but never fully broken, supporting a short move still, but I'm still stuck for where I would GO short if I were taking a trade.

I've drawn a trend line and combined with the intraday pivot as a horizontal support, things are getting tight, and I wonder if the trend line were broken with a close above it, would that change the bias toward long, or make things 50/50 again, or not impact my short bias?

Something tells me a good entry short would be if price just simply passes through the intraday pivot with or without a close, to take it short because it's a developed and so far respected support line, as well as the current swing low (with a high probability of reaching swing short targets) but I'm not sure if there's something more recommended to do when the swing and intraday are tangled up like this.
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #425
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:40am Oct 30, 2007 2:40am
Now that price broke below swing low and I can look back, what I was observing earlier was similar to what I wrote yesterday where the price falls relatively clean through the swing inner zone and makes it to, or in this case creates a swing high/low extreme, then retreats back to the swing inner zone for a retrace test.

In yesterday's observation I decided when a swing retrace occurs and the test fails, propelling price back toward the extreme swing high/low, I'd feel confident taking the break of that level and that's how today looked as well. After the swing low broke, T1 was easily hit. Currently a re-test of the trend line is occurring and so far holding, but at this point I wouldn't care if it reversed long, I'd be satisfied with T1 made.

I just hope I wasn't overlooking something else that should have given more caution in going short of the swing low in tonight's case. Is there something else I should have been looking out for that would make a swing short a bad idea tonight?
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #426
  • Edited 4:51am Oct 30, 2007 3:07am | Edited 4:51am
I might be dreaming or at least getting tired, but after that T1 was hit and it was looking like things would reverse long, I redrew the swing with the high in a location I'm not sure to be valid, I just figure price stalled there as a high and there was that small sort of up move just before the point where I drew this new high, so I went with it as shown.

Then the same candle that gave the T1 short target ended up turning long and blasting through the newest swing inner range, the trend line, intraday long, swing high, and hitting T1 long. Was all that a coincidence or is there a "valid" long trade in there somewhere? It's definitely aggressive but with the confluence of all those things that were broken along the trip, I'd probably have been ok with setting a buy stop just above intraday long in this case to provide 3 levels of resistance to break through before I allow a gamble.

It's all hind sight but as long as it makes sense I can learn from it.

And a few hours after the swing long target was made, it looks like a strong upward move is in place and it's trying to poke through the long awaited daily high fib.
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #427
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:04am Oct 30, 2007 7:04am
Quoting Thexder
I might be dreaming or at least getting tired, but after that T1 was hit and it was looking like things would reverse long, I redrew the swing with the high in a location I'm not sure to be valid, I just figure price stalled there as a high and there was that small sort of up move just before the point where I drew this new high, so I went with it as shown.

Then the same candle that gave the T1 short target ended up turning long and blasting through the newest swing inner range, the trend line, intraday long, swing high, and hitting T1 long. Was all that a coincidence or is there a "valid" long trade in there somewhere? It's definitely aggressive but with the confluence of all those things that were broken along the trip, I'd probably have been ok with setting a buy stop just above intraday long in this case to provide 3 levels of resistance to break through before I allow a gamble.

It's all hind sight but as long as it makes sense I can learn from it.

And a few hours after the swing long target was made, it looks like a strong upward move is in place and it's trying to poke through the long awaited daily high fib.
You followed along very nicely there.The short position that occured I would have treated the same as I did the night before by waiting for the the low of the swing to break and using the Intraday set to look for an exit since the support from those is higher than the swing fib. Once T1 was reached of the swing fib and price blew back through the levels of it that was the trade for today off the bounce from the Intraday sets levels and resulted in roughly 30-50 pip trade.0800 candle was a good entry and with the Daily high fib there it was destined to be tested.Exiting there would be the smart move because of the resistance it would have and you'd be done for the day, regardless if it could have made it past it or not.Most times it will take more than one attempt to break a daily fib high of this stature, but it all depends on where the Billionaire Club boys want it to go.
  • #428
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:26am Oct 30, 2007 10:26am
Hi,
I have been away for the past few weeks.....good to see that you are still bestowing your benevolence........ keep up the excellent work.
May He in His infinite wisdom reward you.
Adam
  • #429
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:42am Oct 30, 2007 10:42am
hey bob please can you post a chart of gu showing your current swing fib levels please.
regards,
BK
  • #430
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:47am Oct 30, 2007 10:47am
Quoting sitges
Hi,
I have been away for the past few weeks.....good to see that you are still bestowing your benevolence........ keep up the excellent work.
May He in His infinite wisdom reward you.
Adam
Thank you kind sir...I just hope I havnt confused traders even more than helped.
  • #431
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:53am Oct 30, 2007 10:53am
Quoting bksujal
hey bob please can you post a chart of gu showing your current swing fib levels please.
regards,
BK
Certainly
may have to pull the highs if new ones are made, but this is where I am currently...
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  • #432
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:57am Oct 30, 2007 10:57am
I just hope I havnt confused traders even more than helped.[/quote]

I am sure most will agree with me that you have added clarity and not confusion to our understanding and application of fib levels.
Adam
  • #433
  • Oct 30, 2007 11:03am Oct 30, 2007 11:03am
so bill did you go short as 2.0672 was broken?
regards,
BK
  • #434
  • Oct 30, 2007 11:17am Oct 30, 2007 11:17am
Quoting bksujal
so bill did you go short as 2.0672 was broken?
regards,
BK
LOL, my fib was backwards...sorry was mobile at the time and couldnt see the screen well enough to notice so here...
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  • #435
  • Oct 30, 2007 11:20am Oct 30, 2007 11:20am
Quoting sitges
I just hope I havnt confused traders even more than helped.
I am sure most will agree with me that you have added clarity and not confusion to our understanding and application of fib levels.
Adam[/quote]


LOL, if I keep making posts like the last few I'll have everyone confused.
  • #436
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:52pm Oct 30, 2007 12:52pm
Hi Bobo,

1) What is the success rate for your system for the past year???
2) What is the expectancy per trade????
I hope my rather direct questions are not too impertinent.
Adam
  • #437
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:34pm Oct 30, 2007 1:34pm
Quoting sitges
Hi Bobo,

1) What is the success rate for your system for the past year???
2) What is the expectancy per trade????
I hope my rather direct questions are not too impertinent.
Adam

We'll I dont want to get into the boasting about pips made or anything like that because what we are doing here with this thread is just to help with fibs not necessarily all of my trading method and I dont want to get the 2 confused.Id like to but that wouldnt be fair to what were doing here.
  • #438
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:53pm Oct 30, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting Bobokus
We'll I dont want to get into the boasting about pips made or anything like that because what we are doing here with this thread is just to help with fibs not necessarily all of my trading method and I dont want to get the 2 confused.Id like to but that wouldnt be fair to what were doing here.
Thats fine.....
Adam
  • #439
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:59pm Oct 30, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting sitges
Thats fine.....
Adam
Thanks for understanding..I sent ya a PM
  • #440
  • Oct 30, 2007 3:03pm Oct 30, 2007 3:03pm
Many Thanks.
Unfortunately, I am unable to send you a private message as i do not have the rights to do so and ofcourse you do not accept emails.
Most grateful for the private mesage.
Adam
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