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  • #461
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:05am Nov 1, 2007 6:05am
Quoting GaPs
Thank you Bobo...
i understood, i think i must practice more often to build my own confidence, and as you said, the important number is 38,2 50 and 61,8 to be watch closely, and 'vigilant', by the way, i saw in one of your post there is T3 and T4, will you tell us at how many % of Fibs u made it? just wondering....

thank you bobo, keep tell us the best....
T3 and T4 are just the next step up or down in the extensions they would be -1.382 and -1.618
2.382 and 2.618
very rarely will price travel that far though in 1 days time.
  • #462
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:19am Nov 1, 2007 6:19am
Quoting Thexder
How about the situation unfolding right now, on the retrace from yesterday's intraday high down toward the long fib looking for a long bounce, price stalled above the long fib and is now bouncing long (maybe I drew my intraday low in the wrong place yesterday but I used the 0100 candle as a low).

If it had tested the intraday long and bounced we could enter on the current candle in my image, but is it still considered the same if it didn't make it to the 38.2 retrace of intraday? Do we hold out for something else before going long?
this is a case of price not quite making it to the Intraday fib levels, if you entered long on the last candle there(0500) , the Swing is showing that price has turned against you but the Intraday fibs could be used as your stoploss the Pivot is only about 30 pips below and it price breaks short there would have been an exit. A few candles later looks like the 1000 candle is the long entry off the bounce from the Intraday fib. There is also a new small swing to pull the Swing fib on and if youve held the long from the previous entry 0500 candle the newer swing can help detirmine if price can rally now and continue up.At this point it doesnt look like it can the swings are showing lower highs each time and we may have a short coming up here. What to watch currently is price reaction to this swing fib.A good sign would be price reaching this swing high. A bad sign is a candle open below the Short fib of the Swing fib.
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  • #463
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:37am Nov 1, 2007 6:37am
If youve gone long off the Intraday fib now is a good time to move your stoploss to break even. The Swing fib is showing price has the potential to break yesterdays high but we will see now if we have a top in place if it doesnt.
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  • #464
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:45am Nov 1, 2007 6:45am
If price fails to breach yesterdays high and you want to hold the trade to see if a second attempt is made I would use the trendline at the bottom to tell me momentum has been lost and another attempt at the high isnt in the cards.Another Indication the high will not be breached is the next candle will be a bear candle equal in length to this one.
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  • #465
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:59am Nov 1, 2007 6:59am
Watch the reaction of price as it hits the aqua trendline, this has the apearance of an action reaction type move to it.The aqua trendline lines up nicely with the T1 and T2 of the Swing and if your a scalper a price hit on the trendline and T1 or T2 level is your exit.Braver souls would hold out to see if T1 and T2 are breached.The key is yesterdays high giving way.
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  • #466
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:34am Nov 1, 2007 7:34am
hey bob thanks a lot made my first successful trade with your fibs went long at the break of the intraday long. Thanks.
Regards,
BK
  • #467
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:35am Nov 1, 2007 7:35am
Good exit there if your a scalper, if you want to hold the trade to see if the Target from The Intraday fib is going to be hit , you would pull your stop up the just below the previous high of yesterday and let it run. Intraday target is 2.0880
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  • #468
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:37am Nov 1, 2007 7:37am
Quoting bksujal
hey bob thanks a lot made my first successful trade with your fibs went long at the break of the intraday long. Thanks.
Regards,
BK
No thanks needed its just basic fibs not me.
  • #469
  • Nov 1, 2007 10:31am Nov 1, 2007 10:31am
hey bob can you post your swing levels please.
regards,
BK
  • #470
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:09am Nov 1, 2007 11:09am
Quoting bksujal
hey bob can you post your swing levels please.
regards,
BK
Sure can,
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  • #471
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:34pm Nov 1, 2007 4:34pm
Excellent analysis and teaching...... I am slowly learning this system... thankyou.....
  • #472
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:52pm Nov 1, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting sovo1970
Excellent analysis and teaching...... I am slowly learning this system... thankyou.....
Thanks for the compliments, and it does take time to fully grasp using fibs but it will be worth it in the end. They are the best compliment to any system you decide to use.
  • #473
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:46pm Nov 1, 2007 6:46pm
What I am finding as I learn to use these fibs more each week with each new situation being presented to analyze, I think I'm starting to learn enough that I know when to be cautious and stand aside or when it may be worth taking an entry, and if that entry fails, I would only take a hit of worst case 30 to 40 pips by getting out when lines are crossed in the reverse direction, and that's a hit I'm able to accept on Cable with the daily range over 100.

But I think I'm getting near a point where I wouldn't have to take that hit very often because of a combination of taking the right entries and exits based on T1/T2, and knowing when to just sit it out.

Last night when London started for instance there were a few tight range candles that stalled above the hoped for intraday long retrace point and I wouldn't have taken anything long or short because we didn't get a full intraday retrace plus the consolidation was too tight, so any bump of noise could trigger a false swing low breach. I would have waited for some action to allow a new swing to be pulled out of consolidation.

When that started to happen with a movement upward, followed by a movement down again toward intraday long, I had a proper place to move a swing high, and I'd still not want to take anything short because I'd be looking for a bounce to go long off intraday long level.

Here's where I would have hesitated to take an entry again just like the pre-London tight range. A spike went down almost but not quite to intraday long and sprung back up, and that could have been taken as a bounce and a chance to go long on the next candle, but because it didn't reach the full retrace, I would be nervous. Even if I did take the long entry at that point, I would have had a stop as mentioned earlier today, somewhere like the intraday pivot, within my 30-40 pip allowable hit if it goes wrong. I wouldn't have ended up knocked out so it would have been a successful entry, but if it were a real trade I'd have been nervous and stood by again.

Soon enough a real intraday retrace did occur, and it was a quick surge down and a spring back up, so that makes two spikes that couldn't stay low very long, supporting a long bounce move. Taking a confident entry from that long bounce, it would have gone up to targets and I wouldn't have had to sweat through any negative pips.

So I feel confident that last night I would have stood by twice, taken one long move, and earned up to +40 before getting out. I hope I can pull that off when it counts.

And I hope I don't forget how to use the swing set when ranging like the last few weeks. We'll see.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #474
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:10pm Nov 1, 2007 7:10pm
Quoting Thexder
What I am finding as I learn to use these fibs more each week with each new situation being presented to analyze, I think I'm starting to learn enough that I know when to be cautious and stand aside or when it may be worth taking an entry, and if that entry fails, I would only take a hit of worst case 30 to 40 pips by getting out when lines are crossed in the reverse direction, and that's a hit I'm able to accept on Cable with the daily range over 100.

But I think I'm getting near a point where I wouldn't have to take that hit very often because of a combination of taking the right entries and exits based on T1/T2, and knowing when to just sit it out.

Last night when London started for instance there were a few tight range candles that stalled above the hoped for intraday long retrace point and I wouldn't have taken anything long or short because we didn't get a full intraday retrace plus the consolidation was too tight, so any bump of noise could trigger a false swing low breach. I would have waited for some action to allow a new swing to be pulled out of consolidation.

When that started to happen with a movement upward, followed by a movement down again toward intraday long, I had a proper place to move a swing high, and I'd still not want to take anything short because I'd be looking for a bounce to go long off intraday long level.

Here's where I would have hesitated to take an entry again just like the pre-London tight range. A spike went down almost but not quite to intraday long and sprung back up, and that could have been taken as a bounce and a chance to go long on the next candle, but because it didn't reach the full retrace, I would be nervous. Even if I did take the long entry at that point, I would have had a stop as mentioned earlier today, somewhere like the intraday pivot, within my 30-40 pip allowable hit if it goes wrong. I wouldn't have ended up knocked out so it would have been a successful entry, but if it were a real trade I'd have been nervous and stood by again.

Soon enough a real intraday retrace did occur, and it was a quick surge down and a spring back up, so that makes two spikes that couldn't stay low very long, supporting a long bounce move. Taking a confident entry from that long bounce, it would have gone up to targets and I wouldn't have had to sweat through any negative pips.

So I feel confident that last night I would have stood by twice, taken one long move, and earned up to +40 before getting out. I hope I can pull that off when it counts.

And I hope I don't forget how to use the swing set when ranging like the last few weeks. We'll see.
Sweet, your starting to get the hang of it. Something to consider when you see a situation like we had last night is when you dont get a retracement to the Intraday levels your left with the only option you have when in a strong uptrend and that is the break of the high, you really dont want to take anything other than that because there wasnt a retracement to the Intraday levels. If you had gone long off the swings fib levels without a test of the Intraday levels you stood the chance of having to survive through it if does retrace after you enter.Same with the reverse in a downtrend.
What happens is late in the US session the bounce has already occured and we are late entering or we have missed it, this will occur more than once and you'll see this very same situation again.Just follow along with the movement price makes with your Swing fib and it can help point out turning points and show you where price has the potential to travel.
  • #475
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm
This is the same sitiuation as yesterday but in the reverse it really too late to enter Short unless the Low of today gives way...the problem is its the asian session and there is a good chance no momentum will be behind it. We would like to see a small rally in price here back to our Intraday levels so a proper decision can be made.I would like to see more movements before I make an entry here, Ive hit a couple of good ones here lately and dont want to make any unecessary risk, so its best to just wait until London or just before London we will know alot more about price action by then. If the Low gives way here im gonna let this one go.Like I said before its better to miss one than to loose one.....And tomorrow is Friday.
What I see from today already is upward momentum has slowed and we may have seen some early profit taking already,Price retraced past the Intraday Short fib today indicating a reversal in direction can occur.The next few days will show us.
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  • #476
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:42pm Nov 1, 2007 7:42pm
Ive moved my 2 Daily fibs (Daily and Intermediate) up now since T2 has been met from the Intermediate fibs and we have a new Overall move that should encompass everything after it for the Daily fib itself. If new highs are made The Highs of both fibs need to be pulled along until we get a correction move, and they will be set for a while again.You should be able to see them in the background on my 1 hour charts as well now in their new locations.
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  • #477
  • Nov 2, 2007 6:07am Nov 2, 2007 6:07am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Hay Bo, Remember me ? Here is the calculator I told you about. It may help those who get confused easy ( like me) when there are more than a couple fibs on the chart. I use it for a swing fib. Hope it will help someone.
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File Type: zip FibCalc.zip   277 KB | 1,281 downloads
  • #478
  • Nov 2, 2007 9:31am Nov 2, 2007 9:31am
Im done for the week now and lucky I survived through the day.Too much indecision now for me and Im stayin away untill next week. The deep retracement on thursday and the failure so far today to make any new high has me thinkin we are in for some ranging early next week maybe even a correction lower, time will tell.My current setup on Cable is posted here but nothing tradeable.Good day to go do something else.Let the Bankers and the Billionaire Club fight it out today we'll ride the winners coattail next week.
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  • #479
  • Nov 2, 2007 9:56am Nov 2, 2007 9:56am
Hi Bob,
Re: Post 112.
Could you kindly let me know via PM if that offer is still available???.
I hope you have a had a good trading week.
Adam
  • #480
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:00pm Nov 2, 2007 12:00pm
Look at that, I leave for a couple of hours and look what they do. It would appear the bulls are gonna win the battle today and keep the upmove intact.Doesnt matter though either way we ride along with the winner over today.If they can get a higher close today we'll be buying dips again next week.
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