Failed EW Count
EG
EG
- #862
- Oct 25, 2007 8:56am Oct 25, 2007 8:56am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Southern Trip from here on.
I failed to recognized limits of each wave earlier. I think I made a mistake.
I still have a long way to go learning EW.
Note how wave 3 and wave 5 projections using the fib extention tool still falls within expected range as we use Points 0 1 and 2
EG
I failed to recognized limits of each wave earlier. I think I made a mistake.
I still have a long way to go learning EW.
Note how wave 3 and wave 5 projections using the fib extention tool still falls within expected range as we use Points 0 1 and 2
EG
- #863
- Oct 25, 2007 9:44am Oct 25, 2007 9:44am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
if price goes higher than 235.11, then again, EW count I made needs to be re assessed.
A resumption of the carry trades will only be in effect if price goes higher than 235.85
But if the wave 2 limit at 235.11 holds, then resumption of the unwinding of carry trades will continue to be a POSSIBILITY.
I say "A POSSIBILITY" because the main confirmation will only be after the fact.
However, there are some long term levels to watch and one of that is if Price goes lower than 230.31 which is the end on my wave 3 in this Big wave C down.
At this point, based on Projection levels using the Fib Tools ( since I already have points 0 1 and 2, wave 5 of C down may only surpass previous low of 219.31 by just 97 pips down. Meaning, End of wave C down will be around the level of 218.66
this will still be following the guideline but nor necessarily a rule that wave 4 ends near the termination point of a sub wave 4 of a previous wave 3 of same degreee and this was at 221.08
Although the non overlap rule with wave 1 is towards 192.66, I am not that convinced that GBPJPY will drop that far without going up first.
As you will see in my monthly and weekly count, we are still in a wave 4 down of a big wave C up inside a wave 4 up. Wave 4C4C2 now.
Okay will expound more on this later.
Evidently, EW is a lot more challenging than most of the other methods used in forecasting price. Quite a lot of rules to keep in mind. However, I believe it is possible to internalize all these rules and apply them in ones analysis. I just need more time to practice applying the principles. Hopefully in time I can use it and add more value and reliability in my analysis or at least increase the probability of providing a highly probable direction in the market
To me, it has its value of looking into the future by assessing the MACRO scale of the market. This is the reason why I still continue studying EW.
But as an Intraday Trader, I need to study Trendline Breaks, Pivots, Support and Resistance, Candlestick Patterns, Chart Patterns and Harmonic Patterns.
I still think that technical analysis as shared and taught in Auslanco's thread is excellent with what are shared by Auslanco, HM, Zoran, Karmo and M2B. A very Powerful Pack for an Intraday Trader
EG
A resumption of the carry trades will only be in effect if price goes higher than 235.85
But if the wave 2 limit at 235.11 holds, then resumption of the unwinding of carry trades will continue to be a POSSIBILITY.
I say "A POSSIBILITY" because the main confirmation will only be after the fact.
However, there are some long term levels to watch and one of that is if Price goes lower than 230.31 which is the end on my wave 3 in this Big wave C down.
At this point, based on Projection levels using the Fib Tools ( since I already have points 0 1 and 2, wave 5 of C down may only surpass previous low of 219.31 by just 97 pips down. Meaning, End of wave C down will be around the level of 218.66
this will still be following the guideline but nor necessarily a rule that wave 4 ends near the termination point of a sub wave 4 of a previous wave 3 of same degreee and this was at 221.08
Although the non overlap rule with wave 1 is towards 192.66, I am not that convinced that GBPJPY will drop that far without going up first.
As you will see in my monthly and weekly count, we are still in a wave 4 down of a big wave C up inside a wave 4 up. Wave 4C4C2 now.
Okay will expound more on this later.
Evidently, EW is a lot more challenging than most of the other methods used in forecasting price. Quite a lot of rules to keep in mind. However, I believe it is possible to internalize all these rules and apply them in ones analysis. I just need more time to practice applying the principles. Hopefully in time I can use it and add more value and reliability in my analysis or at least increase the probability of providing a highly probable direction in the market
To me, it has its value of looking into the future by assessing the MACRO scale of the market. This is the reason why I still continue studying EW.
But as an Intraday Trader, I need to study Trendline Breaks, Pivots, Support and Resistance, Candlestick Patterns, Chart Patterns and Harmonic Patterns.
I still think that technical analysis as shared and taught in Auslanco's thread is excellent with what are shared by Auslanco, HM, Zoran, Karmo and M2B. A very Powerful Pack for an Intraday Trader
EG
if price goes higher than 235.11, then again, EW count I made needs to be re assessed.
A resumption of the carry trades will only be in effect if price goes higher than 235.85
But if the wave 2 limit at 235.11 holds, then resumption of the unwinding of carry trades will continue to be a POSSIBILITY.
I say "A POSSIBILITY" because the main confirmation will only be after the fact.
... cut cut ...
But as an Intraday Trader, I need to study Trendline Breaks, Pivots, Support and Resistance, Candlestick Patterns, Chart Patterns and Harmonic Patterns.
I still think that technical analysis as shared and taught in Auslanco's thread is excellent with what are shared by Auslanco, HM, Zoran, Karmo and M2B. A very Powerful Pack for an Intraday Trader
EG
I have been a little suspitious on your last count because I had 235,13 as w(5)2 (fibs fitted nicely, also nice B-divergence, bearish harmonic, AND price action - impulsive from 235,13). So I shorted hard this baby and get 5w down on M1. It looks like w(5)33 in progress. My 1-st target for this [email protected]
- #868
- Oct 26, 2007 10:30am Oct 26, 2007 10:30am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Thanks for posting, i am total a stranger here and i wish to become a member of elliot waves and i dont know how to go about it. I really need your help and if u dont mind this is my id and i will like to know how to download elliotwaves and how to make use of it.
Better remove your email address on your post otherwise you will probably be swamped with spam when spammers pick up your address here.
If you want to learn EW, you can do a web search with the topic "Elliott Wave" or you can first try out http://www.elliottwave.com
This is one of the best places to get your EW education started. They have lots of free material. but getting hold of the actual book "Elliott Wave Principle, Key to Market Behavior" would be a plus.
You can also check out the threads by fixme1too and itme here in forexfactory. I am sure you will be able to pick up a lot from them too.
EG
- #869
- Oct 26, 2007 10:35am Oct 26, 2007 10:35am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming.
I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart.
Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin.
EG
- #870
- Oct 26, 2007 12:56pm Oct 26, 2007 12:56pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Swissy worth going long with risk of 50 pips..........here is my chart & we r in wave 3 i believe.....
I am wondering the basis of the Fib retracement tool you drew.
Why is the 100% level not aligned with your wave 1 top? just asking..
Unless you are showing as that you expect price to reach that 100% level in relation to a Hi-Lo Range you base it on.
Could you kindly explain this?
Thank you.
EG
- #871
- Oct 26, 2007 2:25pm Oct 26, 2007 2:25pm
Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming.
I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart.
Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin.
EG
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx again
- #873
- Edited 9:29pm Oct 28, 2007 8:40pm | Edited 9:29pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx again
When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way.
Sorry for getting you confused with my english.
But to go back to that B wave of yours,
This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes )
a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.)
So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5.
A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle:
Diagonal (A) 53535
Diagonal (C) 33333
Symmetrical - Contracting (B)
Symmetrical - Expanding (B)
I hope this helps.
EG
PS.
Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black.
then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B.
On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart.
as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid.
So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down.
If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard....
- #874
- Oct 29, 2007 12:09am Oct 29, 2007 12:09am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,016 Posts
Hi EG,
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts... No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules.
I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts...
No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules.I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
- #875
- Edited 5:04am Oct 29, 2007 1:34am | Edited 5:04am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hi EG,
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
***very true.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts...
***I agree.
I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
***Yes I have noticed a similarity or a kind of correlation between them. But I have not done a thorough comparison yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
***If I remember my counts on GU too before, I believe I have just also considered the previous 2.0652 as top of my wave 3.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
Hey Pips4life.
I placed some short replies in blue on your post. but I will continue or elaborate on my reply after I finish lunch. BBL
EG
- #876
- Oct 29, 2007 2:58am Oct 29, 2007 2:58am
Hey money.
When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way.
Sorry for getting you confused with my english.
But to go back to that B wave of yours,
This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes )
a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.)
So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5.
A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle:
Diagonal (A) 53535
Diagonal (C) 33333
Symmetrical - Contracting (B)
Symmetrical - Expanding (B)
I hope this helps.
EG
PS.
Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black.
then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B.
On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart.
as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid.
So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down.
If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard....
tnx eg for helping me, we will see what will heppen in the future, couse USD/jpy it's very unpredictably.
tnx, nice day
- #878
- Oct 29, 2007 5:05am Oct 29, 2007 5:05am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
EG tnx again, but after all i am only 23 years old so i have lot of time to teach EW counts better and better. And you help me with that!!!
EG
- #879
- Edited 10:27pm Oct 29, 2007 5:51am | Edited 10:27pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
pips4life....
let me continue with me reply to your query earlier..
"I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post."
I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong )
The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3.
But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave.
Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4.
Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart.
Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8%
So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level.
Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves.
Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY.
EG
let me continue with me reply to your query earlier..
"I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post."
I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong )
The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3.
But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave.
Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4.
Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart.
Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8%
So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level.
Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves.
Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY.
EG
- #880
- Edited 7:08am Oct 29, 2007 7:00am | Edited 7:08am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Here is an option for the weekly Count.
Still trying to fit the waves into the rules.
EG
Still trying to fit the waves into the rules.
EG
