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This weeks GBP/JPY Analysis & Predictions

  • #101
  • Oct 28, 2007 1:59pm Oct 28, 2007 1:59pm
A house of cards cannot stand forever !!!!!!!!!

Quoting Kurti
I have the same views as you, but I am not as sure about a crash or a bear market anymore as I would have been a few years ago.

The best example was a few days ago (Wednesday), when the DOW was ready to drop further and then spiked up 150 points just like that.
The market is so obviously manipulated it makes me sick.
And that's what I suspect for the future. They just can't let it fall because it would have a desastrous effect on the financial system and the confidence of the people and the whole system.
They'll probably always find a new way to bail out the banks and investment guys and the money and the rest doesn't interest, because it doesn't count.
The US could go into recession for years and nobody would know, because the people are too stupid to see what's before their eyes and only believe what's said on the media.
And the media only reports what they are told the y should report.
And the numbers that are reported are false and manipulated anyway, so this game could go on many more years.
There has to be a very big event from the outside to let the system collapse and let all the lies be exposed.
Otherwise there will always be a cover-up because everybody benefits from the status quo.
  • #102
  • Oct 28, 2007 3:30pm Oct 28, 2007 3:30pm
Well, I think the upward surge is basically done. We have just a few more days left in this month and, as you can see, so far this month has worked itself into a doji, which is usually a consolidation/reversal sign. All the indicators on this chart are bearish, including MACD which has just evidenced a cross of its signal line. Check out last week's Monthly chart, Post #88, and you will see MACD bearish divergence as well. Monthly 5SMA has been touched and it is time to go down.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #103
  • Oct 28, 2007 3:42pm Oct 28, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Here's another thought... maybe they have been using lead based paint for the last 20 years so all us Americans are now brain dead... is that what has happened here in the US ???
Would be interesting to check the link between that and Autism - which is about 1 in 166. About 50 years ago it was closer to 1 in 400k.
  • #104
  • Oct 28, 2007 3:44pm Oct 28, 2007 3:44pm
It is appears that the Weekly Chart is also done moving up at this time. We had a virtual touch of the Weekly 5SMA last week. Price bounced between the 5SMA and the TFT. There is bearish divergence on MACD to price. Stochastics has crossed down out of overbought territory. I believe we are getting ready for a second 'leg' down. Leg 1 was from point 1 to point 2. We then saw consolidation for about two months. Notice how the MACD histogram has moved back up close to the '0' line as price has maintained a 'range' (remember we're talking about the weekly chart here). This scenario is what Peter Bain refers to as 'MACD neutralization', and it occurs between leg 1 and leg 2 of moves either up or down. My guess is that when the new Weekly candle opens on this chart in about 3 hours, Momentum will have turned bearish.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #105
  • Oct 28, 2007 3:57pm Oct 28, 2007 3:57pm
Last week was very flat, from a Daily standpoint, as is evidenced by the flatness of the QQE and Momentum most of last week. As I stated on the Weekly Chart post, MACD has been neutralizing. It is more apparent here on the Daily Chart. By looking at the Daily Chart alone, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw another two or three days of ranging, consolidating, neutralizing, before the big move down. More evidence of the consolidating that has been occuring is the fact that the 50EMA (aqua line) and the 200EMA (orange line) have been on top of each other for a week. This is just the breather before the next move down.

M2B
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  • #106
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:11pm Oct 28, 2007 4:11pm
The 4H chart just shows more of the immediate consolidation we have been seeing going back several weeks now. As I said in the Daily Chart post, we could see more ranging for another couple of days, maybe until the end of the month, and then I think the bigger move down will begin. There is bearish divergence showing on every chart from the Monthly on down. I have highlighted a few of these instances in the above posts. The 4H is a bit sketchy right now, which tells me we could see more ranging in the immediate future. I would look for price to maybe go up to the 200EMA, around 235.50, before bouncing back down. I don't think it's going back up to the 240+ range that I had forseen even as recently as last week. I might even venture as far out as to say that it won't hit 236 again for a long time. The market hasn't moved as quickly as I thought it would in some of my past posts. Price has been running, in some cases, a week behind what I had been seeing in the charts. But I will say this, with the news coming out this week, culminating in NFP, it wouldn't surprise me to see the most recent low of 230.30 broken by the end of this week. Have a great week.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #107
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:26pm Oct 28, 2007 4:26pm
You think there might be something to all that ...??? It certainly has crossed my mind lately !!

Quoting clockwork71
Would be interesting to check the link between that and Autism - which is about 1 in 166. About 50 years ago it was closer to 1 in 400k.
  • #108
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:33pm Oct 28, 2007 4:33pm
How do you get a doji on monthly ???


Quoting my2buoys
Well, I think the upward surge is basically done. We have just a few more days left in this month and, as you can see, so far this month has worked itself into a doji, which is usually a consolidation/reversal sign. All the indicators on this chart are bearish, including MACD which has just evidenced a cross of its signal line. Check out last week's Monthly chart, Post #88, and you will see MACD bearish divergence as well. Monthly 5SMA has been touched and it is time to go down.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #109
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:07pm Oct 28, 2007 5:07pm
Wow... sorry... there is something wrong with that MT4 chart... alpari... you are right... it is a doji !!!!!!!! Sorry !!
  • #110
  • Oct 31, 2007 3:11pm Oct 31, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
Would be interesting to check the link between that and Autism - which is about 1 in 166. About 50 years ago it was closer to 1 in 400k.
Autism was a lot harder to detect 50 years ago so the 1 in 400K is not an accurate count according to my Sister that is a Physician. Actually, A lot of diagnosis were inaccurate 50 years ago.
  • #111
  • Oct 31, 2007 5:13pm Oct 31, 2007 5:13pm
There is a historical SR line sitting at 241.06 so I'll be building shorts in the 240s. I already have some entries in the 239.90 area. Target could be another 1000+ pips down.

See chart (though there's nothing really important there apart from the purple line sitting at 241.06 (top of the chart). The grey shaded area is also a buildup of resistance. There is a Gann timepoint on 1st/2nd Nov so that could see a reversal.

Z

PS. A break above 241.06 would have my entries reversed for a big move north. At the moment we are inside the brickwall so I'll remain short.
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  • #112
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:34pm Nov 3, 2007 6:34pm
weekly analysis posted:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49770&page=103
  • #113
  • Nov 4, 2007 3:29pm Nov 4, 2007 3:29pm
Unfortunately I've been quite busy this weekend so without posting any charts, I will give you some analysis.

I suspect there is a bit more up movement left in GJ - a good place to short or add to shorts would be around 240.90. Coming back to that resistance line possibly for the last time before a major fall.

I see the DOW poking its head just above 13,700 and GU going to around 2.1030.

At the levels I have just mentioned, all three will reach strong resistance once again. Therefore my plan is to be short at or around those levels by scaling in.

This is not guaranteed and price could break the resistance. In that case I would expect a fairly big north move and have my positions reversed. But again, I'll be short while within the brick walls.
  • #114
  • Nov 11, 2007 8:32am Nov 11, 2007 8:32am
My bias is short (longer term) but I am expecting a retracement now (not a reversal) so I am long for it. Here is some strong support I see.

1. We have just completed a bullish bat with the fib levels lining up nicely.
2. The consolisation in Sept produced a triangle and we are at the apex.
3. Price has pierced a few strong trendlines but a break is not conclusive as yet.
4. We have also reached medium to strong support levels on other pairs.

So Sunday could see a bit more down but I will expect a bounce somewhere within that bottom grey shaded area that starts at the apex of the triangle. Since these points live on the daily, we should see a reasonable bounce and some consolidation around this area before continuing to fall. Now the only thing that will break it easily is panic selling so I am prepared to accept a slap on the face and reverse should that be the case.

I expect the retracement to hit the 235 region or just below. First target and stops set to BE+1 at 232.8. Chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #115
  • Nov 12, 2007 5:25am Nov 12, 2007 5:25am
The long on the retrace obviously didn't work well and the market came back to give me a slap on the face. I did reverse net short but I was several hundred pips down by that time (on multiples). My bias is still short and I will add to shorts on a retrace. Target is 221.
  • #116
  • Nov 13, 2007 6:27pm Nov 13, 2007 6:27pm

I'm currently looking for a place to reverse this retracement and continue south to target. Target is currently 221 and I am thinking the retracement could go to 231.5. There seems to be quite a bit of resistance in that area. I wouldn't expect it to go much higher than 232.7. Expected reversal is somewhere within the orange shaded area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy-daily.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #117
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:01pm Nov 14, 2007 5:01pm
Looks like we have reversed within the expected orange shaded area and going as high as 232.39. I am now targeting 221.

There is a potential 1000+ pips from the reversal point. Strong support is sitting on 220.52 (purple line at the bottom). It could be a bumpy ride down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #118
  • Nov 16, 2007 7:43am Nov 16, 2007 7:43am
I am looking for a reversal should my target hit around the 221/220 region. Reading the timepoints from some time masters on another site, if this occurs on Friday or Monday I will be more confident of a reversal.

Now from 221/220 I am expecting 245/247 so a nice 2500+ pip potential there with positive interest.... I will be looking to enter quite large should that level print - these opportunities do not come often.

The caveat as always is - if that support breaks then I expect to see a big move south and have my positions reversed but I'll enter long whilst within the wall. http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/images/smilies/wink.gif
  • #119
  • Nov 20, 2007 11:11am Nov 20, 2007 11:11am
I've had a look at the 224 level in greater detail and I can see that it has some historical significance. It seems that price prefers to sit on the 224 level and then occasionally dip below to bounce off 221/220. Also, it goes up to about the low/mid 228 area before bouncing back.

So at the moment we may be ranging between these levels (and perhaps for a long time to come!). It's similar to what we are seeing now but it has lasted a year in the past. Due to the interest differential, I'm still aiming to reverse long and hold at 221/220.
  • #120
  • Nov 22, 2007 6:29pm Nov 22, 2007 6:29pm
great zoran ... love ur analysis man ...
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