Anyone still trading Mouteki? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Anyone Else Frustrated w/ Mouteki but don't want to give up? 88 replies

Jumper's journal of Mouteki trading 74 replies

Mouteki Trading System 3 replies

Favourable pairs for Mouteki trading... 7 replies

Kalesh's journal of Mouteki Trading 25 replies

Attachments: Anyone still trading Mouteki?
Exit Attachments

Anyone still trading Mouteki?

  • #21
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:07am Dec 13, 2006 7:07am
Quoting jumper
I am currently experimenting with TD lines too (I like it over Mouteki which I feel is a subset). A sad thing though that on 4h TF (unless moves are big, any lower seems too unreliable), even when using just lvl 1 TD points as preferred by TD himself, signals that meet qualifiers 1/2 & 3 are rather few.

See below for a setup (USD/CAD 4h) that qualified #1 and #3 and still failed. Damn, I thought I found the holy grail.
You should only go short if the candle closes completely under the trend line you have to potentially avoid any false signals - not perfect.
  • #22
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:19am Dec 13, 2006 7:19am
Quoting caliant
Jumper,

If you notice my charts, between the TD lines that I drew, there is always a wave. As for the chart that you showed, I don't see any wave between the points. This might be something that you want to look at. I am no expert, but just wanna help a bit.

I'm also curious to ask what time on EST did the breakout occured? I tested for 2 weeks, and if i can remember correctly (terrible memory, too much pepsi) i think i dealt with 1 or 2 false signals, but my SL is only 12-15 pips so I am happy with it.

I also notice the candles are quite big. So I assume the time scale between the 2 lines are somewhat close. I don't say that there is anything wrong with it, I just prefer to pick the former TD point at a somewhat reasonable distance to the latter, but still considered to be a recently formed TD point.

I hope this helps. I'm sure you know much more than me.
Hi dude, if you flip open your program and zoom in to USD/CAD 4h, you will see exactly what I posted. I grabbed the chart at time of posting, and added the arrow and text to show the entry signal from a previous setup.

And I don't get what you meant by waves. As in mini peaks and troughs? My screenshot did not show the entire chart since that would be too big. The "save as picture" in MT4 distorts the bars and lines so I had to screen capture a small portion only.

Anyway I just looked at your charts.

Friday, Dec 1.JPG - it doesn't seem to satisfy qualifer 1 or 2.
Friday, Dec 8.JPG - I zoomed it and think that you used the wrong breakout bar. The 3rd one after the right TD point already went past the dd line, and so does not satisfy either qualifer 1 or 2 too.
Tuesday, Nov 28.JPG - likewise, first 2 qualifiers not satisfied.
Etc.

PS.: I am assuming you are trading using TD's method as your earlier post seemed to imply. Mouteki uses only 4h time frame and the candle open thingy is really just TD qualifer 2.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #23
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:20am Dec 13, 2006 7:20am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
You should only go short if the candle closes completely under the trend line you have to potentially avoid any false signals - not perfect.
Um.. you are talking about Mouteki?

I was talking about TD...
I am JuMPeR.
  • #24
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:31am Dec 13, 2006 7:31am
the main point is that mouteki stole this from DeMark and passed it off as his own stuff as far as I can tell anyway
  • #25
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:37am Dec 13, 2006 7:37am
Quoting Angelus
the main point is that mouteki stole this from DeMark and passed it off as his own stuff as far as I can tell anyway
Hahaha but Mouteki remains as a niche forum here at Forexfactory.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #26
  • Dec 13, 2006 8:33am Dec 13, 2006 8:33am
This Week DOUBLE KILL

Quoting jumper
This is not a holy grail (obviously) and you will also need to apply some discretion - for instance, signals generated from spikes are generally unreliable, beware of consolidation periods, etc.

To be honest, I have found that Mouteki signals for cable are rather unreliable too!
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #27
  • Dec 13, 2006 11:09am Dec 13, 2006 11:09am
Lol, I like your honesty! ;-)

Many "unexplainable" spikes for cable... For instance, my cable long is down-spiked out while my eur/gbp short reached its target nicely. Simply incredible.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #28
  • Dec 19, 2006 10:10am Dec 19, 2006 10:10am
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
Quoting MaXeY
This Week DOUBLE KILL
But the earlier short signal was a good one... and with NFP in there, always a 'jumpy' time.

I've been forward-testing every trade setup I see on most pairs, and it's ~3500 pips up since Sept 25th with around 200 trades and a win rate of ~55%, but a bit of filtering (something I'm still working on) such as no trades entered at midnight, no trades with a target of less than 50pips, not using certain currencies takes the pips up, trades down, and win rate up to ~60%. Still need to work on a better follow stop for trades that stay open a while to balance reaching the TP or hitting the +10 stop...
  • #29
  • Dec 19, 2006 3:07pm Dec 19, 2006 3:07pm
Today was a good day to make profit with Mouteki / TD ;-)
For instance with GBPJPY :
Attached Image
  • #30
  • Dec 19, 2006 3:11pm Dec 19, 2006 3:11pm
...or with EURJPY : + 100 pip ;-)
Attached Image
  • #31
  • Dec 19, 2006 3:28pm Dec 19, 2006 3:28pm
I personally love TD's methods so far. You do get some false signals, like any other method, but if your money management is on point then you can do really good.

With TD lines, i've found a few things..

1) td lines are usually a much more valid when you can visually see the candles following the line, trending the same direction, and close to the same slope. As opposed to the lines you can draw that follow the rules for a tdtl(tom demark trend line), but are very far from the line.

for example, if you look at the gbpjpy chart on the last page you can see how close the candles stay to the trend line, and how they almost mimic its slope, as opposed to the chart posted by jumper on the first page, no offense dude lol.

2) when the line gets tested and it holds as support or resistance, when you get a candle open above or below, it's usually dynamite.

3) in caluclating TP's, i usually use candles about 5-10 candles from the current candle, the closer the better. its a little conservative, so you dont have to close your entire position, but it's always nice to lock in some kind of profit. you could use it as a profit level 1, move your stop to break even, and close half your position and let the rest ride? just an idea.

these are just visual observations that i've made, they haven't been quantitatively measured and tested by me as yet, but are worth looking into if you're interested.





Quoting Rasmus
Today was a good day to make profit with Mouteki / TD ;-)
For instance with GBPJPY :
- nick andre -
  • #32
  • Dec 19, 2006 3:46pm Dec 19, 2006 3:46pm
Jumper-

Mouteki is definitely a subset of TD, and i came to the same realization after looking through TD's book also. I personally only use level 2 td points, and i use it on a 1hr tf. the rhythm is just a little more natural to me, as opposed to a 4h, if that makes sense lol. i used 4h for a while but id miss all these 20+ pip moves and when looking at the 1hr, i'd see perfect setups. its pretty reliable, in my opinion, if you'd like to give it a shot
if you checkout your chart in the post i'm replying to, if you wouldve drew the supply line..and traded that breakout instead..you'dve had a winning trade the supply line more closely followed the candles' trend and slope, and again i've been seeing this over and over. of course, hindsight is 2020, butt im just reiterating my findings and one of the points in my last post. im going to start backtesting it manually, using the visual confirmation as one of my filters.

criticism always welcome

Quoting jumper
I am currently experimenting with TD lines too (I like it over Mouteki which I feel is a subset). A sad thing though that on 4h TF (unless moves are big, any lower seems too unreliable), even when using just lvl 1 TD points as preferred by TD himself, signals that meet qualifiers 1/2 & 3 are rather few.

See below for a setup (USD/CAD 4h) that qualified #1 and #3 and still failed. Damn, I thought I found the holy grail.
- nick andre -
  • #33
  • Dec 20, 2006 11:33am Dec 20, 2006 11:33am
Quoting Nick_likes_pips
I personally love TD's methods so far. You do get some false signals, like any other method, but if your money management is on point then you can do really good.

With TD lines, i've found a few things..

1) td lines are usually a much more valid when you can visually see the candles following the line, trending the same direction, and close to the same slope. As opposed to the lines you can draw that follow the rules for a tdtl(tom demark trend line), but are very far from the line.

for example, if you look at the gbpjpy chart on the last page you can see how close the candles stay to the trend line, and how they almost mimic its slope, as opposed to the chart posted by jumper on the first page, no offense dude lol.

2) when the line gets tested and it holds as support or resistance, when you get a candle open above or below, it's usually dynamite.

3) in caluclating TP's, i usually use candles about 5-10 candles from the current candle, the closer the better. its a little conservative, so you dont have to close your entire position, but it's always nice to lock in some kind of profit. you could use it as a profit level 1, move your stop to break even, and close half your position and let the rest ride? just an idea.

these are just visual observations that i've made, they haven't been quantitatively measured and tested by me as yet, but are worth looking into if you're interested.
No offence taken... and you are right, dude!

In fact, that was one of my recent observations and it makes more sense too and follows more closely an ideal scenario. I am still very new into the method so if you have been using it to great success, then do share! ;-)
I am JuMPeR.
  • #34
  • Dec 20, 2006 11:39am Dec 20, 2006 11:39am
Quoting Nick_likes_pips
Jumper-

Mouteki is definitely a subset of TD, and i came to the same realization after looking through TD's book also. I personally only use level 2 td points, and i use it on a 1hr tf. the rhythm is just a little more natural to me, as opposed to a 4h, if that makes sense lol. i used 4h for a while but id miss all these 20+ pip moves and when looking at the 1hr, i'd see perfect setups. its pretty reliable, in my opinion, if you'd like to give it a shot
if you checkout your chart in the post i'm replying to, if you wouldve drew the supply line..and traded that breakout instead..you'dve had a winning trade the supply line more closely followed the candles' trend and slope, and again i've been seeing this over and over. of course, hindsight is 2020, butt im just reiterating my findings and one of the points in my last post. im going to start backtesting it manually, using the visual confirmation as one of my filters.

criticism always welcome
So Nick, are you actively trading TD? It's a pity we do not have a TD niche forum/thread here (or is there?). Some profitable traders like Merlin mentioned that he has been using TD's techniques for years (though I do not know which one(s) he is using).

It would be great if we can compare TD signals!

And here's something on the cable. I don't know how it would pan out but it was one trade I might have entered given that it met q1 and 3. Things do not look good at the moment though as I would have preferred a stronger follow-through. What do you think?
Attached Image
I am JuMPeR.
  • #35
  • Dec 20, 2006 6:54pm Dec 20, 2006 6:54pm
Sorry for the late response dude, i dont get on here as much as i'd like to...still trying to balance regular work...holiday shopping, and all that good stuff.

But yea, it would definitely be helpful to compare signals. i'm actually planning to start seriously back testing and more importantly forward testing(waking up to trade 4am-12pm est) and all that good stuff real soon..so once i'm doing that i think i'd be alot more helpful than i could be right now! butt..looking at that chart, i believe its the daily chart on the cable right?

looking at that setup, it looks pretty good to me. following the rules, i do believe i wouldve made an entry. i havent tested TD's rules for exiting the trade yet, so i'm not sure if entering this trade wouldve resulted in a loss or not..and i also dont trade on the daily. but i mean, it does look like a good signal.

butttt..

take a look at the hourly chart for this. following the rules..there wouldve been an entry at 9480 (or maybe a little sooner)..and the bad boy is trading at 9652 right now..with a high of 9748 .thats some serious pippage! too bad i was busy doing other crap n didnt see the setup =x

but yea, PM me or ill PM u..and we can talk a bit more. im in noo way an expert on any of this...im still a newb..i've just been focusing all my forex energy on this one method..so i may have a few gems every now n then


Quoting jumper
So Nick, are you actively trading TD? It's a pity we do not have a TD niche forum/thread here (or is there?). Some profitable traders like Merlin mentioned that he has been using TD's techniques for years (though I do not know which one(s) he is using).

It would be great if we can compare TD signals!

And here's something on the cable. I don't know how it would pan out but it was one trade I might have entered given that it met q1 and 3. Things do not look good at the moment though as I would have preferred a stronger follow-through. What do you think?
- nick andre -
  • #36
  • Dec 20, 2006 11:44pm Dec 20, 2006 11:44pm
Exit rules? Where? What?

Anyway here's the updated chart and it's still a 50-50 to me. One of the biggest problems I encounter is placing stops. This is a daily so having a decent R:R would be hard. If I were to enter in this trade, the stop would be >100 pips which is not good - especially so since I need to pay interest either way for cable and so I don't want to hold it too long.

The good thing about the upside is that the breakout bar closed above the 61.8 retracement so it is possible that price goes at least up to 1.98. Now back to the stop. Arghh...
Attached Image
I am JuMPeR.
  • #37
  • Dec 21, 2006 11:38pm Dec 21, 2006 11:38pm
And now the trade seems to have turned bad. If price continues to slide, then it will have been a failed signal. To think it looks so good...
Attached Image
I am JuMPeR.
  • #38
  • Jan 2, 2007 10:07am Jan 2, 2007 10:07am
Quoting jumper
And now the trade seems to have turned bad. If price continues to slide, then it will have been a failed signal. To think it looks so good...
It didn't look good at all... It was a lousy chart set up- you went long at resistance in a descending wedge in a consolidating market... That's the opposite of "looking good"...
  • #39
  • Jan 2, 2007 1:08pm Jan 2, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting Dpip
It didn't look good at all... It was a lousy chart set up- you went long at resistance in a descending wedge in a consolidating market... That's the opposite of "looking good"...
I was talking about TD and not analysing it via other means...
I am JuMPeR.
  • #40
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:26pm Jan 5, 2007 5:26pm
OK... It was very clear there wasn't a TD/Mouteki trade, though... So, I wouldn't call the TD looking all that good.

Just my perspective.
0 traders viewing now