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Aussie Pairs

  • #981
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:04am Oct 16, 2007 6:04am
KGB,

Your thoughts?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #982
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:33am Oct 16, 2007 6:33am
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

Your thoughts?
My daily system gave a sell signal this morning for the first time since 8/17 on A/U and 9/10 on A/J.

If we can hold the July high of 8870, I'll hold off from entering short and enter long with a stop below that level (mainly looking at where it closes at the end of the US session today from a daily standpoint). Seems a bit oversold on the ST intraday and may be due for another small bounce like we saw a couple hours ago, say 40-50 pips.
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  • #983
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:34am Oct 16, 2007 6:34am
Nice analysis, looking for that bounce as well towards 8925 fibo retracement level
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #984
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:58am Oct 16, 2007 6:58am
Quoting DutchTrader
Nice analysis, looking for that bounce as well towards 8925 fibo retracement level
What's your friend's position these days? (the one that went heavily short A/J last July at 107)
  • #985
  • Oct 16, 2007 7:01am Oct 16, 2007 7:01am
Quoting Trader KGB
What's your friend's position these days? (the one that went heavily short A/J last July at 107)
He went long around 102 again, and is currently flat waiting to long again. I don't see a meltdown yet, just another healthy correction as the usual G7 crap is being flung.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #986
  • Oct 16, 2007 9:44am Oct 16, 2007 9:44am
IMO This AUD retrace has the potential to pullback as far as 8497 level ,but fwiwI think the uptrend will persist following that (as said above ) .
  • #987
  • Oct 16, 2007 9:59am Oct 16, 2007 9:59am
Quoting Trader KGB
It was G7 pre-meeting comments that were pro-dollar, also GBP CPI under estimates didn't help the high yielders..


The real issue is the vastly over-valued AUD. Re the G7, see http://forex.gftforex.com/public/blog/119241

October 16, 2007G7 Meeting Expected to Address Currency Market

Forex trading to be topic at G7 meeting
When considering the forex forecast, one should take into account that the upcoming G7 meeting is likely to address the currency market. Forex trading is probably going to be a topic, from dollar weakness to yuan appreciation.

However, very little in forex trading is usually influenced by the G7 meeting, although the rhetoric can affect the short-term forex forecast. The AFP reports on the G7 meeting and the currency market:

"The heat has been turned up again ahead of a G7 meeting and although history has taught us not to expect much in the way of forex (foreign exchange) initiatives, the market is duty bound to prepare for the unexpected," said analyst Peter Stoneham at Thomson IFR Markets.
  • #988
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:12pm Oct 16, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting TradingAffin
Quote
"AUD is massively overvalued for the size of the economy and various fundamentals. USD is now massively undervalued for an economy that is 28% of the entire world's GDP - this is due to overreaction to what is happening there which turned into an over-extended momentum."

Even if this statement is true ...since when did a consensus of opinions on over or undervaluation (or any other fundamental) stop an FX trend (imo).

For mine I will continue too buy dips until 9495 level on around 4 Feb until proven wrong or limit filled.
Couldn,t agree more.
  • #989
  • Oct 17, 2007 6:14pm Oct 17, 2007 6:14pm
Quoting DutchTrader
He went long around 102 again, and is currently flat waiting to long again. I don't see a meltdown yet, just another healthy correction as the usual G7 crap is being flung.
I would like to know who is flinging "the usual G7" crap, and where I can read about it (preferably, as it is happens). Also, I would like to fling a heavy object at that person. The resulting psychotic volatility over the past few days has cost me dearly.
  • #990
  • Oct 18, 2007 3:34pm Oct 18, 2007 3:34pm
AJ has a tweezer bottom on the daily which is a diamond bottom on the 4hr
very bullish patterns here
Just Trade It
  • #991
  • Oct 18, 2007 3:37pm Oct 18, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting Subdude
I would like to know who is flinging "the usual G7" crap, and where I can read about it (preferably, as it is happens). Also, I would like to fling a heavy object at that person. The resulting psychotic volatility over the past few days has cost me dearly.


I watch Bloomberg TV usually the Euros are angry about something, either Trichet or Juncker
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #992
  • Oct 19, 2007 1:44am Oct 19, 2007 1:44am
Quoting DutchTrader
He went long around 102 again, and is currently flat waiting to long again. I don't see a meltdown yet, just another healthy correction as the usual G7 crap is being flung.
I find myself in the same mindset. Interesting how aggressively short we all were short on the last peak in July, but now we're bargain hunters at similar levels. From a contrarian point of view, that may mean we're headed lower. I think I'll hold out for 99.. the daily technicals are not very pretty..
  • #993
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:10pm Oct 19, 2007 5:10pm
Would anyone venture a guess as to what direction AU will be headed in come next week? My hunch is - as odds of another $ rate cut have gone up this week and all the dust from G7 settles, the trend to 0.9000+ should resume.
  • #994
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:26pm Oct 19, 2007 5:26pm
I think we should continue the uphill march, however if you look on the daily charts, we ended the day with a bearish engulfing. Although, on the 4 hour charts, we are in a channel slowly moving upwards. The good thing about the short is that we are at the bottom or already past it and could potentially get a close below it. This will give way to the bearish view, at least for the next upcoming days, before we could see an imminent reversal back upwards. Are you seeing or thinking anything differently?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #995
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:38pm Oct 19, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting Trader KGB
I find myself in the same mindset. Interesting how aggressively short we all were short on the last peak in July, but now we're bargain hunters at similar levels. From a contrarian point of view, that may mean we're headed lower. I think I'll hold out for 99.. the daily technicals are not very pretty..
KGB,

The reason I'm bargain hunting is that the aussie fundamentals compared to the us fundamentals are completely opposite in their trends.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #996
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:43pm Oct 19, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

The reason I'm bargain hunting is that the aussie fundamentals compared to the us fundamentals are completely opposite in their trends.
I am not an expert when it comes to fundamentals, but fundamentals play out in technicals. I think you are exactly right in this thinking. This correction does have a possibility of reaching fairly low. If and after the 1.88 level is breached cleanly and closed below, we could possibly see the 1.86 area as a target for immediate shorting. That's just one scenario, and I doubt that will happen. I think we could drop another 75 to 100 pips realistically before the march back up. Could you tell me how the fundamentals, to you, are going to affect the AU?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #997
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:45pm Oct 19, 2007 5:45pm
The hourly chart is showing a very choppy ride upward, after a pretty abrupt plunge earlier in the week, likely due to fears about G7, as was pointed out earlier in the thread. As these summits tend have little to no actual impact on monetary policy changes, and because of some troubling signs from the U.S. economy, I anticipate (and welcome) a decrease in volatility once the smoke clears after the meeting is over. Brace yourself for week after next, however, when the Fed has to decide on the interest rate once again.
  • #998
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:54pm Oct 19, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting mike w
I am not an expert when it comes to fundamentals, but fundamentals play out in technicals. I think you are exactly right in this thinking. This correction does have a possibility of reaching fairly low. If and after the 1.88 level is breached cleanly and closed below, we could possibly see the 1.86 area as a target for immediate shorting. That's just one scenario, and I doubt that will happen. I think we could drop another 75 to 100 pips realistically before the march back up. Could you tell me how the fundamentals, to you, are going to affect the AU?
I look for gold prices, and other metals, as well as continuing aussie economic strength compared to continuing us weakness might see the aud reach parity after a more substantial correction.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #999
  • Edited 6:04pm Oct 19, 2007 6:03pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I look for gold prices, and other metals, as well as continuing aussie economic strength compared to continuing us weakness might see the aud reach parity after a more substantial correction.
I was thinking along the same lines, but I didn't think to correlate the raw materials into it. I was just thinking in terms of dollar weakness. How substantial of a correction do you think could be justifiable? I'd like to discuss profit targets. There are three areas that are jumping out at me on the daily charts for profit targets. The first and smallest area is .8800. The larger targets will be, if they each get breached through and close below the last area, .8600 area, then 8400, and finally 8250. I doubt we will reach the last two. 8600 seems plausible. After this, as I said earlier, I'm looking to see the march upwards continue.

Thanks for the info Dutchtrader.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #1,000
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:12pm Oct 19, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting mike w
I was thinking along the same lines, but I didn't think to correlate the raw materials into it. I was just thinking in terms of dollar weakness. How substantial of a correction do you think could be justifiable? I'd like to discuss profit targets. There are three areas that are jumping out at me on the daily charts for profit targets. The first and smallest area is .8800. The larger targets will be, if they each get breached through and close below the last area, .8600 area, then 8400, and finally 8250. I doubt we will reach the last two. 8600 seems plausible. After this, as I said earlier, I'm looking to see the march upwards continue.

Thanks for the info Dutchtrader.
Right now we've got pretty much a 1300 pip ride up against the dollar from the 7700 area where this upmove started. We need a correction, so 8600 seems plausible, particularly the 8650 area. FYI Paulson is on CNBC, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some dollar strength on sunday.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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