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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,021
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:38pm Oct 15, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting saskgui
I took this trade on the daily at the break of the pb. I know it is not in an ideal setup however i am confused why you talk about the potential of getting out of the channel? I was happy to trade in the channel and take my 50 pips. Are you thinking breakout and lots of pips?
For me everything is risk reward. And trading within such a tight range limits my reward. So I simply pass on those type of range bound trades. Like I always say, it isn't that they don't work or aren't good for some pips. But they just don't fit into my trading plan. I don't expect anyone to do exactly what I do and is why the market is so dynamic. I just like to wait for the prime prime setups. Finding what works for you is the most important.

Best,
Mike
  • #7,022
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:42pm Oct 15, 2007 5:42pm
Quoting saskgui
I took this trade on the daily at the break of the pb. I know it is not in an ideal setup however i am confused why you talk about the potential of getting out of the channel? I was happy to trade in the channel and take my 50 pips. Are you thinking breakout and lots of pips?
I got 50 pips, and then moved my close up to break even.

I am letting it ride to maybe the top of the range (where my target is set).
  • #7,023
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:44pm Oct 15, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting mamutot
\yes i often really do - this time i didnt for some reason - it looks even more of a resistance building up there - what is your opinion? do you think that the Fib makes it stronger/weaker?

thanks.
Just would be interesting to see where the Fib lines would match up compared to that range you selected.

You got a great point on the resistence. Looks like it is holding strong (tested and failed yet again) and it is about to go short (down).

But I am new to all this.
  • #7,024
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:03pm Oct 15, 2007 6:03pm
Quoting unlv_tj

But I am new to all this.

So am I - and i guess i should be each and every morning when i get up - trade like i have never gained confidence - ask questions, try not to take a trade for any reason until it convinces me to, thank you for that line.



aren't we all actually?
  • #7,025
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:17pm Oct 15, 2007 6:17pm
I too took the trade with the full intention of just trading the channel too... I got my 100 pips and had less than a 100 pip stop...

I know Mike trades his way, but he has never said anything against those who trade like we did here... he specifically notes that we all trade differently...

It was a C Pin Bar... I am pretty sure we all knew that... and it was also easy to see where the target was or is...

Everyone is good today !!!

Quoting saskgui
I took this trade on the daily at the break of the pb. I know it is not in an ideal setup however i am confused why you talk about the potential of getting out of the channel? I was happy to trade in the channel and take my 50 pips. Are you thinking breakout and lots of pips?
  • #7,026
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:20pm Oct 15, 2007 6:20pm
I am still wondering where I was the day of this PB off the 800 sma... this would have been the best trade I would ever have made up to this point... there was no excuse to have missed this !!

I am pretty sure this is an mbqb11 trade !!
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  • #7,027
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:45pm Oct 15, 2007 7:45pm
Hey tiki,

I took that trade but and made some money. but the ROI is something you need to look at 1000pip trades looks good but would have only returned a 3:1 if you managed to ride it for the last two months.

I also took another trade which had a lot better ROI if i had managed to ride it for 1 month. But alas it shook me out just before it took off but thats life wasn't the first time nor will it be the last.

Enjoy
Ademac
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  • #7,028
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:54pm Oct 15, 2007 7:54pm
I guess you are right Ademac... but it sure looks nice on paper !!! And at the very least it looks good for at least the first 300 pips up to the next PB... and it shot off from the very start...

Besides perhaps mbqb... ademac, you have the pin bar trading down !! I see you lamenting over on some of the other threads... but man... in my veiw... YOU'RE THE BOSS OF PIN TRADING !!!



Quoting ademac
Hey tiki,

I took that trade but and made some money. but the ROI is something you need to look at 1000pip trades looks good but would have only returned a 3:1 if you managed to ride it for the last two months.

I also took another trade which had a lot better ROI if i had managed to ride it for 1 month. But alas it shook me out just before it took off but thats life wasn't the first time nor will it be the last.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #7,029
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:32pm Oct 15, 2007 8:32pm
Hello,
Is anyone looking at shorting the AUD/USD or NZD/USD tonight? I think we are due for a retracement and it looks like the high yielders are selling off too...(yen and swiss pairs gaining strength). I understand this is countertrend and will probably only be a retracement but the kiwi is currently testing a daily TL and bounced just shy of last week's low 7587 on IBFX. I will attach a chart for the Kiwi. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks
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  • #7,030
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:37pm Oct 15, 2007 8:37pm
Also is anyone interested in the EUR/AUD going back up maybe? The current consolidation channel is 5620 to 5846/40 area. We have bounced hard off the bottom yesterday and now looked poised to break the resistance around 5840 because of the weak AUD/USD tonight. I will attach a chart.
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  • #7,031
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:44pm Oct 15, 2007 8:44pm
Quoting ademac
Hey tiki,

I took that trade but and made some money. but the ROI is something you need to look at 1000pip trades looks good but would have only returned a 3:1 if you managed to ride it for the last two months.

I also took another trade which had a lot better ROI if i had managed to ride it for 1 month. But alas it shook me out just before it took off but thats life wasn't the first time nor will it be the last.

Enjoy
Ademac
Thank you for sharing.

When risking 313 pips, how many US Dollars does that translate into?

Are you trading full lots or mini-lots?

Thanks man!
  • #7,032
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:34pm Oct 15, 2007 9:34pm
I know I may get scolded for saying this... but on a Pin Bar that beautiful, bouncing off the 800 sma like that... I don't think I ever would have felt I was risking anything !! Even though I would have put my stop under the Pin... It just looks like magic !!!

Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you for sharing.

When risking 313 pips, how many US Dollars does that translate into?

Are you trading full lots or mini-lots?

Thanks man!
  • #7,033
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:46pm Oct 15, 2007 9:46pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I know I may get scolded for saying this... but on a Pin Bar that beautiful, bouncing off the 800 sma like that... I don't think I ever would have felt I was risking anything !! Even though I would have put my stop under the Pin... It just looks like magic !!!
You have a good point. I know what you are saying. The risk is there, and it must be calculated, but it is worth it to increase the risk for such a good set-up.

How much leverage do you normally use, and do you trade full lots?
  • #7,034
  • Oct 15, 2007 11:16pm Oct 15, 2007 11:16pm
Quoting unlv_tj
You have a good point. I know what you are saying. The risk is there, and it must be calculated, but it is worth it to increase the risk for such a good set-up.

How much leverage do you normally use, and do you trade full lots?
hi there - i will answer as if i was asked and hope that this is ok - you also have the option to trade micro-lots with IBFX (www.interbankfx.com)
and Oanda (www.oanda.com) - there you can trade whatever size you wish.
i personally use IGFX\s charts and account. some people use both some people use non, but as you start and you want to practice the stuff thought in here, it is better you start with those micro-lots at least.

hope i helped .

hope it was ok - just had forum spirit .
  • #7,035
  • Oct 15, 2007 11:23pm Oct 15, 2007 11:23pm
Quoting unlv_tj
You have a good point. I know what you are saying. The risk is there, and it must be calculated, but it is worth it to increase the risk for such a good set-up.
How do you know it is going to be such a good setup? I have had plenty of nice looking setups fail. So i risk the same amount no mater how hot or not it looks.

Quoting unlv_tj
How much leverage do you normally use, and do you trade full lots?
You need to read this post/thread will teach you a lot position size.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=18

I cant speak for Tiki, but i am very conservative so i only risk 1% of my account on any trade.
  • #7,036
  • Oct 15, 2007 11:34pm Oct 15, 2007 11:34pm
Quoting ademac
How do you know it is going to be such a good setup? I have had plenty of nice looking setups fail. So i risk the same amount no mater how hot or not it looks.


You need to read this post/thread will teach you a lot position size.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=18

I cant speak for Tiki, but i am very conservative so i only risk 1% of my account on any trade.
On your first trade, you risked 313 Pips. On your 2nd trade you risked 89 Pips.

I am guessing 313 is close to your 1% limit, where as 89 Pips is a long distance from your 1% limit, but a good place for a stop loss (at the bottom of the Pin Bar).

Is this correct?
  • #7,037
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:53am Oct 16, 2007 12:53am
Quoting unlv_tj
On your first trade, you risked 313 Pips. On your 2nd trade you risked 89 Pips.

I am guessing 313 is close to your 1% limit, where as 89 Pips is a long distance from your 1% limit, but a good place for a stop loss (at the bottom of the Pin Bar).

Is this correct?
It depends on his position sizing strategy unlv. Many here use a fixed % risk model, where each trade is worth a certain percentage of your account (say, 0.5%, or 1%). So if my stop loss is 100 pips, then my lot size is such that a complete 100 pips loss translates to 1% of my account (i.e., in theory, I cannot lose more than 1% of my equity). If my stop loss on the next trade is 200 pips, I still use a 1% risk model, so in this case my lots traded will be half that of the previous trade. If I use a 20 pip stop loss, my lots traded will be 5 times that of the original, and so on. Basically, with this model, the tighter the stop, the more lots you trade, and vice versa. Thus, with the GBPUSD daily pin you all were discussing, a better strategy (IMO) for a target at the top of the channel would have been to look on the 1H or 4H after the daily pin, and set your stop loss accordingly below the retrace you observe on the lower TF, thus allowing you a larger R:R ratio. Under a fixed % position sizing model, 50 pips with a 100 pip SL (0.5R gain) does NOT equal 50 pips with a 20 pips SL (2.5R gain--big difference huh?). :-) You can read more about this in some of Van Tharp's books, they are very good and explain the subject very well.

I wrote an EA for metatrader that does just this--calculates position size based on a fixed %. You can download it here and play with it if you like:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=48623
  • #7,038
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:06am Oct 16, 2007 6:06am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Double Top on EUR/USD 4 Hour ???
Hey Tiki, your double top certainly is in a range in 4h and 1h.
Posting this Euorpean mid day and now it's trying to squeeze out of the bottom of the box without showing any price action?..
Anyway, I got confluence with fib 38 in that area..

Could we wish for a pin bar dipping to the fib 50 and then up to top of the box? Is that too much to ask?

sneak peak at the h1 shows there was an inside bar that broke out to the downside.. but I am trying to do the demotime a month or two at the moment and should stick to day and week..
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  • #7,039
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:56am Oct 16, 2007 6:56am
I hope not !!! I am short on EUR, and looking, hoping for correction of EUR down towards the 62 ema on daily...


Quoting oloman
Hey Tiki, your double top certainly is in a range in 4h and 1h.
Posting this Euorpean mid day and now it's trying to squeeze out of the bottom of the box without showing any price action?..
Anyway, I got confluence with fib 38 in that area..

Could we wish for a pin bar dipping to the fib 50 and then up to top of the box? Is that too much to ask?

sneak peak at the h1 shows there was an inside bar that broke out to the downside.. but I am trying to do the demotime a month or two at the moment and should stick to day and week..
  • #7,040
  • Oct 16, 2007 7:01am Oct 16, 2007 7:01am
I have learned my lessons the hard way !!! I risk only 1% of my account max right now... and most often, even less.. I sincerely do not have experience to risk more without running the chance of losing too much of my small capital that I scraped up over two years just to start my little forex account.

I use Oanda so I can trade whatever amount I need... I use their full whopping 50:1 leverage !!!

On a Pin Bar like that it would have been tempting to up the risk... but at a 300 pip stop... that is a lot to lose already... but alas... I seem to have been missing in action that day for some reason that stil evades me !!!

Quoting unlv_tj
You have a good point. I know what you are saying. The risk is there, and it must be calculated, but it is worth it to increase the risk for such a good set-up.

How much leverage do you normally use, and do you trade full lots?
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