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Aussie Pairs

  • #961
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:21am Oct 15, 2007 7:21am
The Aussie pairs seem to be exhausted, it seems to be working too hard to gain 1 pip. I am out of these pairs for the moment.
Just Trade It
  • #962
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:27am Oct 15, 2007 7:27am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
The Aussie pairs seem to be exhausted, it seems to be working too hard to gain 1 pip. I am out of these pairs for the moment.
Agreed, I'm looking for a pullback, however gold is at 28 yr highs
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #963
  • Oct 15, 2007 12:21pm Oct 15, 2007 12:21pm
Yep as expected a pullback after a try at the 107.00 level.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #964
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:40pm Oct 15, 2007 2:40pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
Yep as expected a pullback after a try at the 107.00 level.
A very nice pullback, but to where - i think 104.90 should do.
  • #965
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:51pm Oct 15, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting MPP
A very nice pullback, but to where - i think 104.90 should do.
104.98 was printed back to 105.26 so far, one more downside test and back up me thinks
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #966
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:58pm Oct 15, 2007 2:58pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
104.98 was printed back to 105.26 so far, one more downside test and back up me thinks
it's my 1h candle, it's torn between up and down, i think the next candle will finish the down and then we turn to make new highs. and i don't see anything between us and 109.50.
  • #967
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:46pm Oct 15, 2007 3:46pm
Government has announced a $34billion tax cut program which given Australias terrible savings history (read negative savings rate) will surely lead to higher consumer spending and further interest rate rises.

Will it be enough to get the government re-elected?

Need to see the oppositions tax plan and whether that will also cause pressure on rates.

I'm bearish at the moment on AUD but sitting out at the moment
  • #968
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:54pm Oct 15, 2007 3:54pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting bvbfan
Government has announced a $34billion tax cut program which given Australias terrible savings history (read negative savings rate) will surely lead to higher consumer spending and further interest rate rises.

Will it be enough to get the government re-elected?

Need to see the oppositions tax plan and whether that will also cause pressure on rates.

I'm bearish at the moment on AUD but sitting out at the moment
now thats a mixed bag

Higher interest rates = bullish on carry trades

Higher interest rates = bearish if housing issues pick up

IMO - still overall Bullish, natural materials + high interest rates. If/when mortgages become an issue will short aussie pairs big time.
  • #969
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:19pm Oct 15, 2007 4:19pm
Really not too happy to see my order at 105.00 didn't get hit... damn spread. Long instead from 105.45, eyeing yesterday's high and then the big 107.80. If you place your shorts properly on this AUD/JPY you should do rack up pips quickly, bagged 110 pips from the move this morning, now ready for the long interest positive crawl back to 107 haha
  • #970
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:53am Oct 16, 2007 2:53am
bugger.... what happened there ??
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #971
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:02am Oct 16, 2007 3:02am
Quoting AndrewM
bugger.... what happened there ??
damn .. have no clue .. nothing on the news so far - i was 100 pips up - left the comp for 10 mins and come back to see my trade vanished at SL break even.
  • #972
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:11am Oct 16, 2007 3:11am
The only explanation I would accept is a nuclear explosion in Australia or something of similar magnitude.
  • #973
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:27am Oct 16, 2007 3:27am
Risk aversion ahead of G7
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #974
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:39am Oct 16, 2007 3:39am
Quoting DutchTrader
Risk aversion ahead of G7
Perhaps that's partly it, but it would appear that aussie pairs were affected the worst by it - if I'm not mistaken, Australia's not even part of G7.
  • #975
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:42am Oct 16, 2007 3:42am
Of course they are part of the discussion as the Jpy is always part of pre G7 chatter
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #976
  • Oct 16, 2007 4:50am Oct 16, 2007 4:50am
Quoting Subdude
The only explanation I would accept is a nuclear explosion in Australia or something of similar magnitude.
[looks out the window]
No radioactive glow here...
I think I might just stay out of the market this week.
  • #977
  • Oct 16, 2007 4:54am Oct 16, 2007 4:54am
AUD is massively overvalued for the size of the economy and various fundamentals. USD is now massively undervalued for an economy that is 28% of the entire world's GDP - this is due to overreaction to what is happening there which turned into an over-extended momentum.

Also, China is now beginning to take action that is akin to interest rate rises and is slowing down their economy and making money more expensive to borrow - the first steps have been taken. This will impact the AUD negatively regardless of any interest rate rises here.

Further, the AUD has travelled north tooooo far. It is way over-valued and the true value, according to various specialists, is around 0.80 ...

Quoting Subdude
The only explanation I would accept is a nuclear explosion in Australia or something of similar magnitude.
  • #978
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:14am Oct 16, 2007 5:14am
Quote
"AUD is massively overvalued for the size of the economy and various fundamentals. USD is now massively undervalued for an economy that is 28% of the entire world's GDP - this is due to overreaction to what is happening there which turned into an over-extended momentum."

Even if this statement is true ...since when did a consensus of opinions on over or undervaluation (or any other fundamental) stop an FX trend (imo).

For mine I will continue too buy dips until 9495 level on around 4 Feb until proven wrong or limit filled.
  • #979
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:59am Oct 16, 2007 5:59am
Retrace to 8920 forthcoming
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #980
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:01am Oct 16, 2007 6:01am
It was G7 pre-meeting comments that were pro-dollar, also GBP CPI under estimates didn't help the high yielders..
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