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Three Bar Scalp Method w Probability

  • #81
  • Sep 28, 2007 11:09pm Sep 28, 2007 11:09pm
Greetings,

Excellent strategy. I use a similar method to trade the GBP/USD only targeting 100 pips per trade. It works very well. I only place trades in the direction of the daily trend and use Fibonacci's to find the optimum entry price, placing my stop loss 15 pips below the daily pivot points, and TP at +100pips. On average this method gives me two trades per week, 200 pips. It works extremely well, but requires patience and discipline. By using Fib's I am able to filter out bad trades, thus increasing my success rate. Thanks for sharing and I wish you all the best with this system.

Happy Trading

forexnetworth
  • #82
  • Sep 29, 2007 2:07am Sep 29, 2007 2:07am
Quoting forexnetworth
Greetings,

Excellent strategy. I use a similar method to trade the GBP/USD only targeting 100 pips per trade. It works very well. I only place trades in the direction of the daily trend and use Fibonacci's to find the optimum entry price, placing my stop loss 15 pips below the daily pivot points, and TP at +100pips. On average this method gives me two trades per week, 200 pips. It works extremely well, but requires patience and discipline. By using Fib's I am able to filter out bad trades, thus increasing my success rate. Thanks for sharing and I wish you all the best with this system.

Happy Trading

forexnetworth
It works more than good. I am working now on a new variation.
.
  • #83
  • Sep 29, 2007 10:10am Sep 29, 2007 10:10am
Quoting bullrock
It works more than good. I am working now on a new variation.

Cant wait. I already like what you have shown, so looking forward to more
  • #84
  • Sep 30, 2007 1:12am Sep 30, 2007 1:12am
Quoting Cmartin371
Cant wait. I already like what you have shown, so looking forward to more

me too.....
  • #85
  • Sep 30, 2007 2:50pm Sep 30, 2007 2:50pm
Why work on a new variation if the current version is making pips consistently?
  • #86
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:10pm Sep 30, 2007 3:10pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting longhornxtreme
Why work on a new variation if the current version is making pips consistently?

I would say beacuse it has also lost some pips. (not a lot but just enough for BR to tweek it)

If we stopped designing planes just because the wright brothers could fly, how would i get a sun tan?
  • #87
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:30pm Sep 30, 2007 3:30pm
Well the thing is I am using this method to make money (pips) .My results have been made using this method but with some tweeks.. I am looking at support resistance levels. and reverse the position at the SL....
.
  • #88
  • Sep 30, 2007 6:51pm Sep 30, 2007 6:51pm
Hi,

I've traded this live for a few days, with every pair it applied to (19 pairs max), with an accumulative risk of 2 percent of equity to be risked across the board. Using 3 trades per pair, with different T/P's (50%, End of Day and Let it Ride) and S/L of 25% as listed by bullrock. It pretty much broke even. On average most positions would stop, but the ones that would ride eventually accumulated quite a few pips.

I did'nt backtest at all, just reading the set-up seemed sound and using risk management I gave it a try. I wrote a script to put me in the positions, as opposed to fiddling with the math for S/L, T/P, Lots, etc...

What am i trying to say? I think bullrock is in the right direction, especially since the first parameter to be met is price action, which I feel is the best indicator of price movement.

Just an opinion,
lucidlamp
  • #89
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:44pm Oct 9, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting lucidlamp
Hi,

I've traded this live for a few days, with every pair it applied to (19 pairs max), with an accumulative risk of 2 percent of equity to be risked across the board. Using 3 trades per pair, with different T/P's (50%, End of Day and Let it Ride) and S/L of 25% as listed by bullrock. It pretty much broke even. On average most positions would stop, but the ones that would ride eventually accumulated quite a few pips.

I did'nt backtest at all, just reading the set-up seemed sound and using risk management I gave it a try. I wrote a script to put me in the positions, as opposed to fiddling with the math for S/L, T/P, Lots, etc...

What am i trying to say? I think bullrock is in the right direction, especially since the first parameter to be met is price action, which I feel is the best indicator of price movement.

Just an opinion,
lucidlamp
Here are my new findings. Regarding this.
The BE is not necessary.
The SL should be widened to say 100 pips avoiding unnecessary whipsaws.
Should use 3-4 units with various TPs and 1 unit that is left till the end of the day.
.
  • #90
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:15am Oct 10, 2007 5:15am
Quoting bullrock
Here are my new findings. Regarding this.
The BE is not necessary.
The SL should be widened to say 100 pips avoiding unnecessary whipsaws.
Should use 3-4 units with various TPs and 1 unit that is left till the end of the day.

Bull,

I am having decent success with the rules on post 1. On your new variation, if the following day signal looks positive are you letting that 1 lot run into the following day and opening more lots still? THanks for your observations!

Chris
  • #91
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:27am Oct 10, 2007 6:27am
Quoting Cmartin371
Bull,

I am having decent success with the rules on post 1. On your new variation, if the following day signal looks positive are you letting that 1 lot run into the following day and opening more lots still? THanks for your observations!

Chris
Good to hear that. The problem is the NFP days and heavy volatility..
The answer to your question is yes. Think logically. If say your SL is at BE but you still have runnign positions in profits and TPs at hand why the heck you would close? Trail the SL of the old position to the level of those. If you have luck and the trend continues like that for 5 days then you have the big winner..
.
  • #92
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:34am Oct 10, 2007 6:34am
For those who think 30 pips is little as SL... I am using 50-100 pips SL depeneding on the day and 40-50 pips TPs. When unit 2 is hit or in 80-100 gain pull that into BE and leave third unit in play. Cumulatively this can bring to table over 1000 pips if trend continues like that for say 5 days.
.
  • #93
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:37am Oct 10, 2007 6:37am
Quoting bullrock
Good to hear that. The problem is the NFP days and heavy volatility..
The answer to your question is yes. Think logically. If say your SL is at BE but you still have runnign positions in profits and TPs at hand why the heck you would close? Trail the SL of the old position to the level of those. If you have luck and the trend continues like that for 5 days then you have the big winner..

Bull,

Thanks for clarifying. Here is what I have been doing and will stick with. 3 lots. I close the first at 25% of ATR 14, the second at 50% of ATR 14, and trail the third. S/L I have been using 50% of ATR which could be any where from 40-100 depending on the pair. I do like your idea of giving the trade room to breathe though. I also move SL to BE when either 25% or 50% has been hit (depends when I wake up from sleeping). This definitely helps in securing pips.

One other observation (I picked it up somewhere) I noticed that looking for a cross of RSI 5 and RSI 14 will pick up some nice trends.

Chris
  • #94
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:40am Oct 10, 2007 6:40am
Quoting Cmartin371
Bull,

Thanks for clarifying. Here is what I have been doing and will stick with. 3 lots. I close the first at 25% of ATR 14, the second at 50% of ATR 14, and trail the third. S/L I have been using 50% of ATR which could be any where from 40-100 depending on the pair. I do like your idea of giving the trade room to breathe though. I also move SL to BE when either 25% or 50% has been hit (depends when I wake up from sleeping). This definitely helps in securing pips.

One other observation (I picked it up somewhere) I noticed that looking for a cross of RSI 5 and RSI 14 will pick up some nice trends.

Chris
.
  • #95
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:43am Oct 10, 2007 6:43am
Quoting bullrock
You can add an MA to the RSI... Personally I dont like to add too much filters because that would filter out the good ones too.
.
  • #96
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:49am Oct 10, 2007 6:49am
Quoting bullrock
You can add an MA to the RSI... Personally I dont like to add too much filters because that would filter out the good ones too.

Yes..I have used the Fozzy 8RSI and 8MA and like it. But I saw this helps keep you in trades a bit longer. I find that you can see re-entry points much clearer as well. It will also show you when your in way overbought/oversold territory.

I don't realy use this as another filter......just another signal that could signify a strong entry. I stick with the primary rules you laid out here.
  • #97
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:53am Oct 10, 2007 6:53am
Quoting Cmartin371
Yes..I have used the Fozzy 8RSI and 8MA and like it. But I saw this helps keep you in trades a bit longer. I find that you can see re-entry points much clearer as well. It will also show you when your in way overbought/oversold territory.

I don't realy use this as another filter......just another signal that could signify a strong entry. I stick with the primary rules you laid out here.
My goal is to keep it simple really and not to clutter with indicators. Money management should be the key here. But anyone can modify the rules as per taste and personality. Keep up the good work.
.
  • #98
  • Oct 10, 2007 2:32pm Oct 10, 2007 2:32pm
Hi Bullrock

As I see the rules have changed a lot since you started this thread, whenever you have time, you may want to edit the first page and update the rules according to your latest findings.
That would be very helpful. Thanks
Regards
  • #99
  • Oct 10, 2007 2:35pm Oct 10, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting howard
Hi Bullrock

As I see the rules have changed a lot since you started this thread, whenever you have time, you may want to edit the first page and update the rules according to your latest findings.
That would be very helpful. Thanks
Ok I will do it tonight.
.
  • #100
  • Oct 21, 2007 9:11am Oct 21, 2007 9:11am
Quoting bullrock
Ok I will do it tonight.
Bull rock any update on the system?
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