BWR
any idea why there is a + sign after your name under the now viewing box.
seen it a few times on other names
any idea why there is a + sign after your name under the now viewing box.
seen it a few times on other names
- #921
- Oct 5, 2007 12:55pm Oct 5, 2007 12:55pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #922
- Oct 5, 2007 2:07pm Oct 5, 2007 2:07pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Ok so this is very long, but it was posted on another thread and i thought it should be shared.
this is why i trade charts, too much reading.
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...ostcount=37466
Let me quote here an email from Peter Catranis, forex fund manager. It pretty well clarifies dollar's position in market at the moment. Surely dollar will make moves to positive direction, but the overall direction seems to be down, down, down...
Sorry about the length.
BR,
R
Commentary
Over the past 5 years the U.S. dollar has declined 50% versus the Euro and 28% against it's weighted basket. The S&P 500 up 22% in USD , in Euros -19% , commodity prices have more than doubled, yet inflation was reported a total of +13.78%? http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
The dollars decline has impacted the performance and true value of all USD denominated investments. Good news for non-US based foreign currency accounts, bad for US dollar accounts, the dollar is expected to drop further in 2007 see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=al2iZRKZXm Cw
The US is insolvent, that is the conclusion of 12/15/2006 Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday 12/15/06, deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, stated that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the government’s accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion” on the financial statements of the US government.
U.S. government’s total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now totals approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nation’s total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000. Our national debt has gone from 653 Billion on 1976 to 8.6 trillion in 2006 , again it's only 1200% I guess it's nothing to worry about, sourcehttp://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
We currently are experiencing the worst US fiscal mismanagement in US history. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...ne-cover_x.htm
The US budget, trade defects have doubled, budget deficit relative to GDP doubled as well http://www.edrc.am/user_files/254.pdf?ID=21
No matter how you try to candy coat it nearly 9 trillion in national debt is just irresponsible and ugly for a debt clock see http://www.treasuries.com/history.htm ,
http://www.merkfund.com/money/authors/richardbenson/dollars-on-sale.html The official debt stands at $8.507 trillion or 65% of (nominal) GDP but when we add in our “off balance sheet” items the national debt stands at $50 + trillion or 400%+ of GDP , a decent read is posted on http://drmss.com/wordpress/?cat
For a chart on 1961-2006 budget deficits see http://www.uuforum.org/deficit.htm anyway you try to twist this again ugly. The US budget deficit in 2006 is equal to our national debt in 1971 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
Nearly every central bank on the planet has been burnt by the declining dollar see http://www.catranis.com/links_banks.htm for links to most major central banks.
China Malaysia, Singapore and Petrol countries ( previously the larger dollar buyers ) are now net sellers, moving away from US dollars and out of US treasuries. Lower demand will generate additional downward momentum. Increasing money supply without disclosure will further pressure the dollar to the downside and US dollar creditability and demand for dollars and debt will further deteriorate.
China for example is changing from a 100% US dollar peg to multi currency peg, see story on http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e...0779e2340.html Equals large dollar and US treasury sales. Singapore, Malaysia and now Russia and others are no longer pegging their currencies to US dollars, they've started selling US dollars and treasuries to rebalance.
The Fed is no longer publishing money supply http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/2...-tracking.html along with potential Implications.By Eliminating M3 we won't know how much liquidity the Fed is pumping into the system which by any definition equals lack of transparency , inflation and deteriorating creditability. No longer publishing money supply is the first step to "monetize debt" by borrowing from the US Federal Reserve system, which is nominally under private control but now seems to be just another part of the US government. The government sells its bonds to the Federal Reserve, which creates new bank deposits out of thin air and uses them to pay for the bonds. This process creates new money and expands the money supply: hence it is called "monetizing" the government's debt. For the basics of how this is done see http://experts.about.com/q/2301/2460065.htm A great book on the fed is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cre..._Jekyll_Island another http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/094...lance&n=283155
The US Federal Reserve chairman sees inflation and dollar devaluation as the only out. By lowering the value of the dollar, it lowers the constant value of the US debt. If the dollar declines another 50% the true value of a 30 year treasury will also been cut in half. A declining dollar any way you twist it equals inflation , higher prices equals higher tax revenues collected. End result lower true or constant debt and higher tax revenue. Deflation would have the exact opposite impact, higher constant debt, declining prices and tax revenue. The governments choice inflation = lower debt, higher tax revenue or, deflation higher debt lower tax revenue. The US potentially choosing deflation wouldn't even merit a debate.
The last time the US had significant deflation the dollar was backed by gold, currency values were fixed, Federal income tax and debt were entirely new. Deflation is an impossible scenario with our current monetary structure. A good red on this is the US Fed Chairman's speech Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here Proudly posted on the FED'S website Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke http://www.federal.gov/boarddocs/spe...2002/20021121/Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here I particularly like this Bernanke quote " Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."
Deteriorating creditability globally is not limited to US foreign policy. The CPI as reported by the bureau of labor and statistics has gone up by only 13.78% in the last 5 years.... Use their numbers click on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl on the BLS.gov website http://www.bls.gov/ and consumer prices unchanged in November 06 How can anyone believe these numbers considering the price increases in the chart above? Nice to know the guys at Arthur Anderson and Enron found jobs , they now work for the BLS.gov . 10 year Treasury "inflation protected securities" are paying 3 3/8% taxable ( yes this is a real number ) http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit..._cpi012007.htm
The US is continuing with it's reckless fiscal policy see stories on http://www.americanprogress.org/issu...02/b32743.html the Senate Budget Committee website http://www.senate.gov/~budget/democratic/woasarchive.htmlhttp://www.senate.gov/~dayton/news/details.cfm?id=228751 and http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
An investment in US equities was nearly the worst performer above, foreign investors have experienced losses calculated in their home currency and in my opinion will liquidate on any dollar really after all who's really making the serious money on Wall Street ?
Goldman Awards Blankfein Record $53.4 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aParh4cwId L0
Lehman's Fuld Gets 31% Raise to $34.5 Millionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZxa58XLDO uA
Morgan Stanley's Mack Gets Record $40 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6my7bTOmk 0c
Bonuses for European Bankers May Be Diminished by Dollar Tumble http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.PGCveNT6 eE
I personally believe that non US investors have just about had it with US stocks trading with hold and hope long only strategies.
The list goes on and on... I'll trade the market long or short but in my 30 year career ( see http://www.catranis.com/career.htm ) I have never seen such reckless economic policy. The good news is this will create tremendous opportunity. I believe It's time to consider setting up a small account in alternate currency with a non-US institution. If I'm, wrong, the impact will be minimal, based on historical performance we should still perform, if I'm right everything will be in place to pull the trigger on a larger scale.
Peter Catranis
this is why i trade charts, too much reading.
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...ostcount=37466
Let me quote here an email from Peter Catranis, forex fund manager. It pretty well clarifies dollar's position in market at the moment. Surely dollar will make moves to positive direction, but the overall direction seems to be down, down, down...
Sorry about the length.
BR,
R
Commentary
Over the past 5 years the U.S. dollar has declined 50% versus the Euro and 28% against it's weighted basket. The S&P 500 up 22% in USD , in Euros -19% , commodity prices have more than doubled, yet inflation was reported a total of +13.78%? http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
The dollars decline has impacted the performance and true value of all USD denominated investments. Good news for non-US based foreign currency accounts, bad for US dollar accounts, the dollar is expected to drop further in 2007 see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=al2iZRKZXm Cw
The US is insolvent, that is the conclusion of 12/15/2006 Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday 12/15/06, deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, stated that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the government’s accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion” on the financial statements of the US government.
U.S. government’s total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now totals approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nation’s total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000. Our national debt has gone from 653 Billion on 1976 to 8.6 trillion in 2006 , again it's only 1200% I guess it's nothing to worry about, sourcehttp://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
We currently are experiencing the worst US fiscal mismanagement in US history. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...ne-cover_x.htm
The US budget, trade defects have doubled, budget deficit relative to GDP doubled as well http://www.edrc.am/user_files/254.pdf?ID=21
No matter how you try to candy coat it nearly 9 trillion in national debt is just irresponsible and ugly for a debt clock see http://www.treasuries.com/history.htm ,
http://www.merkfund.com/money/authors/richardbenson/dollars-on-sale.html The official debt stands at $8.507 trillion or 65% of (nominal) GDP but when we add in our “off balance sheet” items the national debt stands at $50 + trillion or 400%+ of GDP , a decent read is posted on http://drmss.com/wordpress/?cat
For a chart on 1961-2006 budget deficits see http://www.uuforum.org/deficit.htm anyway you try to twist this again ugly. The US budget deficit in 2006 is equal to our national debt in 1971 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
Nearly every central bank on the planet has been burnt by the declining dollar see http://www.catranis.com/links_banks.htm for links to most major central banks.
China Malaysia, Singapore and Petrol countries ( previously the larger dollar buyers ) are now net sellers, moving away from US dollars and out of US treasuries. Lower demand will generate additional downward momentum. Increasing money supply without disclosure will further pressure the dollar to the downside and US dollar creditability and demand for dollars and debt will further deteriorate.
China for example is changing from a 100% US dollar peg to multi currency peg, see story on http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e...0779e2340.html Equals large dollar and US treasury sales. Singapore, Malaysia and now Russia and others are no longer pegging their currencies to US dollars, they've started selling US dollars and treasuries to rebalance.
The Fed is no longer publishing money supply http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/2...-tracking.html along with potential Implications.By Eliminating M3 we won't know how much liquidity the Fed is pumping into the system which by any definition equals lack of transparency , inflation and deteriorating creditability. No longer publishing money supply is the first step to "monetize debt" by borrowing from the US Federal Reserve system, which is nominally under private control but now seems to be just another part of the US government. The government sells its bonds to the Federal Reserve, which creates new bank deposits out of thin air and uses them to pay for the bonds. This process creates new money and expands the money supply: hence it is called "monetizing" the government's debt. For the basics of how this is done see http://experts.about.com/q/2301/2460065.htm A great book on the fed is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cre..._Jekyll_Island another http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/094...lance&n=283155
The US Federal Reserve chairman sees inflation and dollar devaluation as the only out. By lowering the value of the dollar, it lowers the constant value of the US debt. If the dollar declines another 50% the true value of a 30 year treasury will also been cut in half. A declining dollar any way you twist it equals inflation , higher prices equals higher tax revenues collected. End result lower true or constant debt and higher tax revenue. Deflation would have the exact opposite impact, higher constant debt, declining prices and tax revenue. The governments choice inflation = lower debt, higher tax revenue or, deflation higher debt lower tax revenue. The US potentially choosing deflation wouldn't even merit a debate.
The last time the US had significant deflation the dollar was backed by gold, currency values were fixed, Federal income tax and debt were entirely new. Deflation is an impossible scenario with our current monetary structure. A good red on this is the US Fed Chairman's speech Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here Proudly posted on the FED'S website Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke http://www.federal.gov/boarddocs/spe...2002/20021121/Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here I particularly like this Bernanke quote " Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."
Deteriorating creditability globally is not limited to US foreign policy. The CPI as reported by the bureau of labor and statistics has gone up by only 13.78% in the last 5 years.... Use their numbers click on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl on the BLS.gov website http://www.bls.gov/ and consumer prices unchanged in November 06 How can anyone believe these numbers considering the price increases in the chart above? Nice to know the guys at Arthur Anderson and Enron found jobs , they now work for the BLS.gov . 10 year Treasury "inflation protected securities" are paying 3 3/8% taxable ( yes this is a real number ) http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit..._cpi012007.htm
The US is continuing with it's reckless fiscal policy see stories on http://www.americanprogress.org/issu...02/b32743.html the Senate Budget Committee website http://www.senate.gov/~budget/democratic/woasarchive.htmlhttp://www.senate.gov/~dayton/news/details.cfm?id=228751 and http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm
An investment in US equities was nearly the worst performer above, foreign investors have experienced losses calculated in their home currency and in my opinion will liquidate on any dollar really after all who's really making the serious money on Wall Street ?
Goldman Awards Blankfein Record $53.4 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aParh4cwId L0
Lehman's Fuld Gets 31% Raise to $34.5 Millionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZxa58XLDO uA
Morgan Stanley's Mack Gets Record $40 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6my7bTOmk 0c
Bonuses for European Bankers May Be Diminished by Dollar Tumble http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.PGCveNT6 eE
I personally believe that non US investors have just about had it with US stocks trading with hold and hope long only strategies.
The list goes on and on... I'll trade the market long or short but in my 30 year career ( see http://www.catranis.com/career.htm ) I have never seen such reckless economic policy. The good news is this will create tremendous opportunity. I believe It's time to consider setting up a small account in alternate currency with a non-US institution. If I'm, wrong, the impact will be minimal, based on historical performance we should still perform, if I'm right everything will be in place to pull the trigger on a larger scale.
Peter Catranis
- #924
- Oct 5, 2007 2:22pm Oct 5, 2007 2:22pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #925
- Oct 5, 2007 4:19pm Oct 5, 2007 4:19pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: If it walks like a duck... | 1,477 Posts
- #926
- Oct 5, 2007 5:12pm Oct 5, 2007 5:12pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #927
- Oct 5, 2007 8:54pm Oct 5, 2007 8:54pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #929
- Oct 7, 2007 4:37pm Oct 7, 2007 4:37pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #930
- Oct 7, 2007 4:41pm Oct 7, 2007 4:41pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #931
- Oct 8, 2007 1:37am Oct 8, 2007 1:37am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: C.E.O of BWR Investment firm | 4,736 Posts
looks like we are heading into a retracement, I am still bullish on AJ however I think the dollar will be gaining some strength this week against all pairs.
But I could be wrong since its only monday
But I could be wrong since its only monday
Just Trade It
- #932
- Oct 8, 2007 8:06am Oct 8, 2007 8:06am
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Don't Loose Your Shirt | 1,146 Posts
Does anyone trade the GBP/AUD?.....
I'm adding to my portfolio (usually trade GBP/JPY)..this is such a lagging indicator.....baby
The spread for this baby is wild.....one broker at 15 pips (GFT) another at 8 pips(EFX)..
Doing some basic background info..so any help will be appreciated....baby..
I'm adding to my portfolio (usually trade GBP/JPY)..this is such a lagging indicator.....baby
The spread for this baby is wild.....one broker at 15 pips (GFT) another at 8 pips(EFX)..
Doing some basic background info..so any help will be appreciated....baby..
- #933
- Oct 8, 2007 8:48am Oct 8, 2007 8:48am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
looks like we are heading into a retracement, I am still bullish on AJ however I think the dollar will be gaining some strength this week against all pairs.
But I could be wrong since its only monday
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #934
- Oct 8, 2007 8:57am Oct 8, 2007 8:57am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: C.E.O of BWR Investment firm | 4,736 Posts
Just Trade It
- #935
- Oct 8, 2007 9:28am Oct 8, 2007 9:28am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: C.E.O of BWR Investment firm | 4,736 Posts
Just Trade It
- #937
- Oct 8, 2007 3:28pm Oct 8, 2007 3:28pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #939
- Oct 9, 2007 4:30am Oct 9, 2007 4:30am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
- #940
- Oct 9, 2007 4:34am Oct 9, 2007 4:34am
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts