NFP Sweepstakes

That reminds me of the definiton of entropy.

(I'll put away my geek glasses now before I get beat up during recess)

Actual 110K + 89 = 199

My take 130+32 = 162K - I missed by 37K

Well, close enough... The guys in US missed previous month's by 93K for God's sakes

Actually, information entropy (hence minimalisation of assumptions/presumptions) is on your side of the argument phil. In science, a statement like the one seekingthelight was making is of higher order entropy i.e he is making a claim that would require the markets to behave in a certain orderly fashion for it to be true. Because the natural state of things is that it's easier, and simpler, for the market to not know what the hell he is talking about, the burden of proof is on his side, and your skepticism is well founded.

The world shrinks into the easiest fit - the ordinary state of things. It is the extraordinary that needs energy/information/unified trader action/whatever to cause it, and the higher the entropy/more outrageous the claim, lower the probability of the world being in that state. This is the logical foundation for murphy's law: everything that can go wrong will go wrong(being right requires something to be true, being wrong doesn't).

And every forex trader knows this at heart

So it's geek for "utter and complete waste of time"? ;d

Geekspeak's cool..

This sounded VERY familiar to me by changing just one word:

"the more outrageous the claim, lower the probability of the account being in that state."




(P.S. it's SeekingLight, no "the"...not sure which light it will end up being, there's always that headlights of a freight train option...or anything else....no implication of "only one option" intended, so no "the"..)

In a matter of speaking yes. Entropy scientifically describes the increasing randomness of nature from an energy standpoint. The most simple example is melting ice. Ice has a crystalline structure and is very orderly. It melts into water and the randomness increases. Not to scare anyone but the earth is continually increasing the amount of disorder as energy is transformed from one form to another.

Sadly, an engineer's misunderstaning of entropy (or more accurately an isentropic process) was one of the leading factors in the near meltdown of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. OK, I think I've said enough. I'm not sure how anyone can tie this back to the NFP report. I think my original point was that nature prefers randomness despite our efforts to keep everything in order.