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NFP Sweepstakes

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 4, 2007 1:38am Oct 4, 2007 1:38am
Well, it's that time of the month - NFP on Friday

I'm inviting your best guess for NFP

the winner will get a house in the country known as phuq hall.

Please dont duplicate anyone elses guess and any political guesses like 1k above / below the highest / lowest will be ditched.

On Friday can someone collate them into a single post 30 mins before launch please?



Expectation around 100k

My Guess +166,000

https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #2
  • Oct 4, 2007 9:16am Oct 4, 2007 9:16am
Plus Fifty-Two Thousand (+52,000) or +52K or 100K-48K or 10,000+42,000. BTW is this pre or post revision??
  • #3
  • Oct 4, 2007 9:37am Oct 4, 2007 9:37am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Plus Fifty-Two Thousand (+52,000) or +52K or 100K-48K or 10,000+42,000. BTW is this pre or post revision??
Wow, it sounds like you actually have a reason behind the figures. Shocking, really, considering it's the NFP. Care to share some insights with a skeptic like moi?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4
  • Oct 4, 2007 9:46am Oct 4, 2007 9:46am
never mind the rhetoric pluto - just make a guess

can't believe how many have read this post and not guesses - c'mon - it's only a bit of fun, we aint gonna hold you to it.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #5
  • Oct 4, 2007 9:57am Oct 4, 2007 9:57am
Quoting soultrader
never mind the rhetoric pluto - just make a guess

can't believe how many have read this post and not guesses - c'mon - it's only a bit of fun, we aint gonna hold you to it.
but..but.. he's awfully serious about it, doing subtraction and everything. Surely he sees something in those numbers? I will not rest until I know
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #6
  • Oct 4, 2007 11:35am Oct 4, 2007 11:35am
1$ (price is right reference )
  • #7
  • Oct 4, 2007 11:54am Oct 4, 2007 11:54am
Quoting mbqb11
1$ (price is right reference )
too high
Attached Image
  • #8
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:16pm Oct 4, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting Plutonite
but..but.. he's awfully serious about it, doing subtraction and everything. Surely he sees something in those numbers? I will not rest until I know

Earlier today, in another FF thread, there was speculation (rumor?) that BOE would reduce rates by 50 bp. In my inimitable scholarly fashion, I opined that a surprise 25 bp reduction would relatively equal FOMC's recent intervention, particularly since the Brits experienced the same "near prime" woes as US.

Well we now know--- no surprise by BOE. But the "50" loudly resounds within, reverberating incessantly, in need of expression. And the 2.... the two?? the two is a fib number?? Plus 25 multiplied by 2 = 50!

Simply add 50 and 2 and .... voila mon ami, vous avez +52!!!!! Dormez well!
  • #9
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:18pm Oct 4, 2007 1:18pm
122k-- no particular reason. Just had to get it in before all the good numbers got used up. Unless I win, then I'll make up a reason.
  • #10
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:35pm Oct 4, 2007 1:35pm
130K, revision 32K from -4K with a particular reason.

Data cooked as to get the pressure off bernanke. Wanted collateral effects: rescue dollar from the swamp / get "recession" out of The Street (for a while?!?).

Or can we really believe things don't work that way?
  • #11
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:38pm Oct 4, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Earlier today, in another FF thread, there was speculation (rumor?) that BOE would reduce rates by 50 bp. In my inimitable scholarly fashion, I opined that a surprise 25 bp reduction would relatively equal FOMC's recent intervention, particularly since the Brits experienced the same "near prime" woes as US.

Well we now know--- no surprise by BOE. But the "50" loudly resounds within, reverberating incessantly, in need of expression. And the 2.... the two?? the two is a fib number?? Plus 25 multiplied by 2 = 50!

Simply add 50 and 2 and .... voila mon ami, vous avez +52!!!!! Dormez well!
Now I can go to bed a little happier. PS: you should be a professional analyst. You almost made it sound like it made sense to you. Have you no shame, no shame at all? Don't you worry about all those newbies out there who, if not for my timely intervention, could probably have tried trading that number somehow? Heartless.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #12
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:38pm Oct 4, 2007 1:38pm
NFP +87k
  • #13
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:41pm Oct 4, 2007 1:41pm
+135 and I have my revolver to back it up, suckers.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:42pm Oct 4, 2007 1:42pm
Plus 42,400 or just +42k Of course I am just using a percent of ADP LoL... I have no freakin idea.
  • #15
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:45pm Oct 4, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting philmcgrew
too high
  • #16
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:16pm Oct 4, 2007 4:16pm
An idea told to me by a fundamental trader:

The USA and CAD economies are interrelated.
CAD Unemployment Change is the NFP for Canada.
The CAD Unemployment Change comes out 1.5 hours before the USA NFP

An idea that someone may want to look back at over the past months/years. Sometimes the CAD UC comes out before the NFP sometimes after. This month it is before.

Lou
  • #17
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:58pm Oct 4, 2007 4:58pm
I'm still laughing at the thread title....
  • #18
  • Edited 5:58pm Oct 4, 2007 5:23pm | Edited 5:58pm
Im going 40K~60K

However, Its difficult to trade this one based on any figure lower than 100K. Expect revisions to the previous' -4K. THAT will be the killer number!

FYI: 12 Months ago, NFP was USD negative but the revision was USD Positive and USD rallied 150 pips vs GBP based on good revisions.

ADD: To spice up this thread, some would be wondering which pair to trade: is it EURUSD? GBPUSD? USDJPY?
Well, attached is screenshot of 10 pairs on last month's NFP.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip NFP Pairs.zip   63 KB | 510 downloads
  • #19
  • Oct 4, 2007 5:40pm Oct 4, 2007 5:40pm


That's why FF labeled (libeled?) this group as "Seniors"....we're ready for the home!!!

As the Yanks leave the bases loaded, down 1 run to the Cleveland baseball franchise.
  • #20
  • Oct 4, 2007 5:55pm Oct 4, 2007 5:55pm
88K no revision.

Why 88? Because that's the lucky number...

Or should it be 88888?
Mr. Trend
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