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Aussie Pairs

  • #861
  • Oct 1, 2007 5:59am Oct 1, 2007 5:59am
Quoting MPP
watching 102.50 closely to see if we go below that, if we do we could also see a retracement to around 101.75 for AJ
103.03 right now, 103.50 level is critical
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #862
  • Oct 1, 2007 6:45am Oct 1, 2007 6:45am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DutchTrader
103.03 right now, 103.50 level is critical
was watching 102.50 so closely i forgot to adjust my Sl, got hit at 102.58, i was expecting a bounce from that area, and we got it.

now i wait for a new entry.
  • #863
  • Oct 1, 2007 7:49am Oct 1, 2007 7:49am
MPP,

We might see a small correction as gold is down on profit taking which is capping the a/u
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #864
  • Oct 1, 2007 2:15pm Oct 1, 2007 2:15pm
[DJ]Strong Australian fundamentals suggest AUD could rise through parity with USD over next year, says TD Securities global strategist Stephen Koukoulas; "GDP growth is entrenched above 3.5% and is likely to hold above 4% right through 2008. Inflation is being unleashed and the labor market pressures will only get tighter, adding to already precarious inflation risks." Says market chatter suggests very real risk of 7% cash rate in 2008 vs 6.50% now, which should further underpin AUD; plus commodity price cycle shows few signs of turning, while export growth remains firm. Says AUD has lagged well behind terms of trade lift, so "with ongoing growth, rising interest rate differentials and a soggy USD, parity is still well within the realms (of possibility) given recent macroeconomic trends." AUD/USD, which peaked at fresh 18-year peak of 0.8950 overnight, last 0.8941 in early NZ trade.
  • #865
  • Oct 1, 2007 2:21pm Oct 1, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting benssol
[DJ]Strong Australian fundamentals suggest AUD could rise through parity with USD over next year, says TD Securities global strategist Stephen Koukoulas; "GDP growth is entrenched above 3.5% and is likely to hold above 4% right through 2008. Inflation is being unleashed and the labor market pressures will only get tighter, adding to already precarious inflation risks." Says market chatter suggests very real risk of 7% cash rate in 2008 vs 6.50% now, which should further underpin AUD; plus commodity price cycle shows few signs of turning, while export growth remains firm. Says AUD has lagged well behind terms of trade lift, so "with ongoing growth, rising interest rate differentials and a soggy USD, parity is still well within the realms (of possibility) given recent macroeconomic trends." AUD/USD, which peaked at fresh 18-year peak of 0.8950 overnight, last 0.8941 in early NZ trade.
I like it
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #866
  • Oct 1, 2007 2:29pm Oct 1, 2007 2:29pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting benssol
[DJ]Strong Australian fundamentals suggest AUD could rise through parity with USD over next year, says TD Securities global strategist Stephen Koukoulas; "GDP growth is entrenched above 3.5% and is likely to hold above 4% right through 2008. Inflation is being unleashed and the labor market pressures will only get tighter, adding to already precarious inflation risks." Says market chatter suggests very real risk of 7% cash rate in 2008 vs 6.50% now, which should further underpin AUD; plus commodity price cycle shows few signs of turning, while export growth remains firm. Says AUD has lagged well behind terms of trade lift, so "with ongoing growth, rising interest rate differentials and a soggy USD, parity is still well within the realms (of possibility) given recent macroeconomic trends." AUD/USD, which peaked at fresh 18-year peak of 0.8950 overnight, last 0.8941 in early NZ trade.

I asked before, but i think i get it now parity is 1 for 1, dollar for dollar.
  • #867
  • Oct 1, 2007 2:44pm Oct 1, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting MPP
I asked before, but i think i get it now parity is 1 for 1, dollar for dollar.
aha
sorry I didnt understand your first question
sorry my brother
  • #868
  • Oct 2, 2007 12:03am Oct 2, 2007 12:03am
Is anyone even long on AU right now? Is it insane to be? It looks like nobody's buying it anymore - the chart is all red bars...
  • #869
  • Oct 2, 2007 12:37am Oct 2, 2007 12:37am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Subdude
Is anyone even long on AU right now? Is it insane to be? It looks like nobody's buying it anymore - the chart is all red bars...
it's due a retracement, both on daily and weekly charts so it could go as low as 8600, i am long and will remain so.

i will simply wait for the retracement to finish.

apply a 5sma (simple moving average) to your charts and it will give you a good idea of were it's going, each time it clears this look to the next time frame. it's not a support or resitance point but look back and see how it's given good indications of whats going on.
  • #870
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:02pm Oct 2, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting Subdude
Is anyone even long on AU right now? Is it insane to be? It looks like nobody's buying it anymore - the chart is all red bars...
No position - neutral bias. Awaiting the interest rate statement tonight/morning and also the trade balance info thereafter. Will see how the initial market reacts and then watch for London follow-up before entering a position.
  • #871
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:02pm Oct 2, 2007 2:02pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Trader KGB
No position - neutral bias. Awaiting the interest rate statement tonight/morning and also the trade balance info thereafter. Will see how the initial market reacts and then watch for London follow-up before entering a position.
So whats the Posible outcome and it's effects on the pair, i trade whats on my charts, and i am trying to learn the fundimental stuff so i have some background to the movements.

long on 3 positions down a few pips, 3 lots closed SL hit in profit.
  • #872
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:16pm Oct 2, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting MPP
So whats the Posible outcome and it's effects on the pair, i trade whats on my charts, and i am trying to learn the fundimental stuff so i have some background to the movements.
I would start with FF's calendar. Some announcements have the blue folder next to them which means there's further analysis (like this).

RTN has a news overview. I'd also bookmark Bloomberg's currency news and the AU Trading Room.
  • #873
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:40pm Oct 2, 2007 2:40pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Trader KGB
I would start with FF's calendar. Some announcements have the blue folder next to them which means there's further analysis (like this).

RTN has a news overview. I'd also bookmark Bloomberg's currency news and the AU Trading Room.

Great pages, cheers KGB. will take some time to read it all, but looks good for the aussies, which holds both good and bad news for me.
i'm long on AU but at the same time need the GBP/AUD rate to go up before i move to Oz. still not moving for a while so will ride this to the top and ride it to the bottom.
  • #874
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:42pm Oct 2, 2007 2:42pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
reference previous post and my up coming move. my platform dosen't support the GBP/AUD, so if any can produce a chart with a few TL on it, it would be much appreciated.
  • #875
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:05pm Oct 2, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting Trader KGB
No position - neutral bias. Awaiting the interest rate statement tonight/morning and also the trade balance info thereafter. Will see how the initial market reacts and then watch for London follow-up before entering a position.

Too close to the election.... Extremely unlikely the RBA will alter rates.
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #876
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:29pm Oct 2, 2007 3:29pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting AndrewM
Too close to the election.... Extremely unlikely the RBA will alter rates.
Ok, so do you thnk the longs will servive?
  • #877
  • Oct 2, 2007 4:23pm Oct 2, 2007 4:23pm
IMH Opinion, I think 90 is a given after a short consolidation.. Over the last few days sundry tv news items and comentators are talking about 1 : 1. over the next year, but we will wait and see on that one. It has been a good ride up tho.

You must be almost ready to move to the sunshine coast ?? Hope you bring some rain with you, the Dam levels up there on the sunshine coast are at very low levels (<20% in some). Hope you dont get too much of a shock if you come from a pommie winter and hop off the plane to an Aussie summer.

Cheers
Andrew
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #878
  • Oct 2, 2007 4:47pm Oct 2, 2007 4:47pm
4H bullish divergence
  • #879
  • Oct 2, 2007 5:35pm Oct 2, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting benssol
4H bullish divergence
...I see it on daily too..
Attached Image
  • #880
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:33pm Oct 2, 2007 6:33pm
Australian Aug Retail Sales +0.7% Vs +0.4% Consensus
Australia Aug Trade Deficit A$1.61B Vs A$1.4B Consensus
Australia Aug Exports +2%, Imports +5%


[DJ]Australian retail sales rose a higher-than-expected 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted A$19.68 billion in August from A$19.54 billion in July and rose from A$18.25 billion a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
Economists surveyed ahead of the announcement on average had expected a 0.4% rise in sales for August.
Sales had risen 0.9% in July on month.
The bureau said the the trend estimate for retail sales rose 0.6% to A$19.60 billion in August from July.
The trend estimate further smoothes the seasonally adjusted numbers.
Department store sales for August fell 4.2% from July, the bureau said.
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