Elliott Wave Counting with EG

hi there
i need help finding an elliot wave indicator(on the chart : NOT Oscillator

thanks in advance

GBPJPY

If 234.55 is considered Top for previous wave, then looking at 15m chart... wave 1 has made an 88% retracement up.

So I would expect us to be in wave 3 down now with target 1st at 233.20

I just closed my LIVE trade at 233.50 after reaching the 161.8-200% FE Range for my wave 3 target

Exited that first 1 too early.

Now closed all my Short Trades as it bounced off Daily 5SMA

All in Profit.

Looking to enter another short at a retracement of maybe 38.2 - 50% UP of this wave 3 down.

EG

Placing my TP at 2.0215.

Daily 5SMA is @ 2.0212

UPDATE:

Now a double bounce on 232.70 which is the Daily 5 SMA Level.

Possible retrace due here.

EG

Level at which I closed my GBPJPY Trades where already inside my EW Target range of 161.8-200% FE for my wave 3. Using the Fib Extention Tool.

After which I expect a retracement of at least 23.6 to 50% for the wave 4. ( as I type here, we reached a 23.6% retracement now. BUt I am not pulling the trigger yet. ) Will be looking for 38.2% at least.

I watch the 5SMA on the different TFs and see if they are within the same area as Pivot levels and Support or Resistance Levels.

I also relate them to Fibo levels if retracement for each Wave label.

If I exit too early, I will have to wait for at least the 5m and 15m Stoch to attain an over bought/ oversold level which coincides with the main trend dictated by the 4hour stochs.

Other MAs I watch are 50 EMA, 100SMA and 200EMA. BUt I am still trying to learn them and observe how they really affect my entry and exit points or as SR levels of prices.

Then I get back to my EW counts.

EG

I am still testing this so trading it live is really risky.

Retrace has exceeded 23.6%

38.2% @ 233.37 is more common .

However I will choose 50% at this time whch is @ 233.58.

That shoul coincide with the current level of 1h and 4h 5 SMA. Then probably 15m 50EMA will be within that level too. Daily Pivot Level is at 233.75 which is nearer to the 61.8% retracement.

But expecting this to be somewhat of a sideways correct wave 4 since wave 2 above was a sharp zigzag.

EG

Seems like it wants to continue downward now.

But I am still not convinced that it would only go higher than 23.6% and not reach 38.2% retracement of Wave 3.

There is a long legged doji on the 15m chart and an engulfing candle now. so I could be wrong on this one.

EG

EG,

No My origin of 1 is 318, but because the housing news was not out yet at the time I thought that if it shot up and breached 300 it would then go past 318, been close though, 297.... close call. whew! I may just close it for the week-end/month end and go to the beach early with the kids. Beautiful day 27 degrees C not a cloud in the sky and the sea is crystal clear...

TP Hit @ 2.0215

Was not able to re-enter a trade due to power interruption in my area while I was waiting for the retracement.

Anyway, I was away from my computer from before Frankfurt to way into the US Session. Not complaining as I had all positive pips the whole day.

Hi AP
I hope you still manage to gather some pips after that close call.

Enjoy the weekend with the family.

EG

Eur/Usd
After Blasting out of this Double Bottom
here we are now .. .....
- Price appears to be exhausting itself .......

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

( Click on chart to enlarge )

dont trade this

GBPJPY Potential Counts

First off

4hour Chart - Trendline Resistance breached 2X to the Upside. I am expecting this to go up some more. Like up to 235.50.

If Price goes higher than 235.50, then next level to target is at 237.50 which is the end of Wave 1. If it goes higher than 237.60 then we are in Wave B.

And Wave B Target Range will be 237.61 to 78.6% (244.27) of the 251.07 - 219.31 Range.

On the 2nd Chart which is still a 4h TF, I have provided 3 Potential EW Counts. Blue, Red and Coral.

If Price goes higher than 237.60, then I adopt the EW Count in BLUE.
If price does not go higher than 237.60 but is higher than 235.50, then I adopt the Red Count.
But if Price does not go higher than 235.50, then I adopt he Coral Count and target for lower than 219.31 using FIB Extention/Expansion Tool like 213.98 which is @ 261.8% Projection wave 3 or 5 of the Big wave 5 Down from 235.50. 5 in Red inside the Blue Box.

Now notice that I have and Aqua and a Tomato Rectangles where inside you will find HI-LOs labelled in 12345 forming a triangle or what looks lke a triangle.

Tomato Rectangle can be could make a retracement of up 61.8% which is at around 231.44 or price could retrace down till it hits the Support trendline @ 233.25before heading Up again. This is possible to see on 1h and 4 hour charts.

Aqua Rectangle, This is a much bigger triangle and is seen on the Daily and the 4h charts. Price target will support the Coral EW Count Label going to end of Wave 5 down.

Now going back to Trendline Resistances,

Currently the smallest TF with a breached RTL (Resistance Trendline) is at the 30m. 235.23 and 235.43

Next is the 4hour TF. A bullish candlestick has opened and closed above the Trendline with targets going up to 238.47, 240.62, 240.76 and 241.04

Daily also shows a candlestick opening and closing above the Daily RTL. whch is supposed to reflect an upward move. However, if we look at the candlestick, it is a hanging man and found in an uptrend. A hanging man in an uptrend is interpreted as bearish . This may give way to the retracement I am looking at on the small triangle 12345.

EG

PS. Yes there is a Short Trade on my Demo Chart which I left over the weekend. BUt I have 1 long and 1 short trade over the weekend. The Short I placed right after I placed that short trade on my DEMO. then I dozed off to wake up before market closing and see that it moved against me. I then placed a Lng trade which is now almost at breakeven over the weekend.

Hi

I've been looking at the monthly chart on the GBP/JPY can you post your thoughts on it? Are we about to begin a wave 5?

Based on other systems:

Going Long is being favored. Last 4hour candle opened and closed above Thursday's High. a 61.8% increase in price based on Thursday's range added to Thursday's top will land on the R3 level of Friday @ 235.86 . Surpassing Weekly Resistance at 235.51. Daily Resistance 2 is at 235.05

My chart shows a 235.02 high for Friday's Highest.

Then a potential Bearish Gartley Pattern seems to be forming on the 4hour chart too. But may complete towards the Weekly R2 @ 237.87

Staying on the 4 hour chart and checking on Murrey Math System, a retrace to Level 4/8 which is a Major Support and Resistance level is very likely.

This will coincide with the Potential Bearish Gartley Pattern forming on the 4hour Chart and favors the breakout system. So we could be looking at a breakout to the upside of 235.50.

Anyway, I will be ready with that for the alternative EW Counts.

Looking at Stochastics, It is currently overbought from 5m to 4hour TFs. However, I cannot still assume that Shorting this pair is the right thing to do as of now.

With most of the signals pointing to a Bullish direction and EW Count has that Potential to support a North Trip, shorting it now may not be the brightest idea.

EG

If you check thru the earlier pages, I posted a monthly chart where I showed and explained why I labelled my monthly chart as GBPJPY is in a complex sideways Wave 4 which I see as forming a C=A Flat corrective wave.

And that we are currently in a Wave 4 of the C wave up in the monthly chart (4.C.4.....)

In this weekly or daily wave 4 ( inside wave C of Monthly Wave 4 ) , I do not think we have finished it yet. So we are still a long way off finishing the Wave C in the monthly chart.

EG

Actually I meant over an even longer Time Frame but thanks anyways

Hi EG,

Thanks, Watched it go down for a bit, tightened stop loss though when was down for a while to 280. So damage was not too bad. But I never saw that finish coming, bit like Tiger Woods coming coming in from 5 or off the pace on the final round to take it by 5 shots, not impossible but not likely even for him. Glad my damage was minimal though.

Anyway weekend was good, but I am never mixing tequila and Tobasco sauce together again, mexican tooth ache was unbearable yesterday....

I have redone my count but not going to trade until I get confirmation of the next wave as I am not too confident. So it is either 3 or c of Larger B. I am going to watch price action today and see later how things develop.

Quote from Post # 713
" GBPJPY _ Potential EW Counts
GBPJPY Potential Counts

First off

4hour Chart - Trendline Resistance breached 2X to the Upside. I am expecting this to go up some more. Like up to 235.50.

If Price goes higher than 235.50, then next level to target is at 237.50 which is the end of Wave 1. If it goes higher than 237.60 then we are in Wave B.

And Wave B Target Range will be 237.61 to 78.6% (244.27) of the 251.07 - 219.31 Range.

On the 2nd Chart which is still a 4h TF, I have provided 3 Potential EW Counts. Blue, Red and Coral.

If Price goes higher than 237.60, then I adopt the EW Count in BLUE.
If price does not go higher than 237.60 but is higher than 235.50, then I adopt the Red Count.
But if Price does not go higher than 235.50, then I adopt he Coral Count and target for lower than 219.31 using FIB Extention/Expansion Tool like 213.98 which is @ 261.8% Projection wave 3 or 5 of the Big wave 5 Down from 235.50. 5 in Red inside the Blue Box.

Now notice that I have and Aqua and a Tomato Rectangles where inside you will find HI-LOs labelled in 12345 forming a triangle or what looks lke a triangle.

Tomato Rectangle can be could make a retracement of up 61.8% which is at around 231.44 or price could retrace down till it hits the Support trendline @ 233.25before heading Up again. This is possible to see on 1h and 4 hour charts.

Aqua Rectangle, This is a much bigger triangle and is seen on the Daily and the 4h charts. Price target will support the Coral EW Count Label going to end of Wave 5 down.

Now going back to Trendline Resistances,

Currently the smallest TF with a breached RTL (Resistance Trendline) is at the 30m. 235.23 and 235.43

Next is the 4hour TF. A bullish candlestick has opened and closed above the Trendline with targets going up to 238.47, 240.62, 240.76 and 241.04

Daily also shows a candlestick opening and closing above the Daily RTL. whch is supposed to reflect an upward move. However, if we look at the candlestick, it is a hanging man and found in an uptrend. A hanging man in an uptrend is interpreted as bearish . This may give way to the retracement I am looking at on the small triangle 12345."

Refer to Chart on Post # 713

GBPJPY barely made any downward retracement during the early hours of trading into the Asian Session.

Then it opened and close a candle above last friday's High aside from it staying on top of the Daily Pivot Level. That should have signalled the start of the Long trades and expectations of breaching the 235.50 Resistance Trendline. (FIBO Breakout Supplement).

Price on my chart has gone UP as high as 237.04 which is just 46pips shy of the wave 1 level which if breached will Put this wave from 219.31 going up as a Big Wave B up.

If price does not go higher than 237.60, then wave 5 down starts for this Big Wave A.

If price goes higher than 237.60, then we are in Big Wave B which can go as high as 244.27. Unless this beomes an expanded flat, then it coud go higher than 251.07

(Trendline Breakout Supplement). "4hour TF. A bullish candlestick has opened and closed above the Trendline with targets going up to 238.47, 240.62, 240.76 and 241.04" Ready to adopt this should there be a breach of the 237.60 Price level.

Even the Daily Trendline Breakout supports a move UP with targets as follows:237.49, 237.56 and 238.15.

So right now I am waiting for a Price DIP to enter a Long Trade.

EG

Hanging man on the 4hr chart
S1 235.15
S2 234.60

Major Pivot
1H and 4H - 231.25
m15 and m30 - 234.38

I would be on alert when it reaches S2 then m15 major Pivot.

Most likely it will reverse on the Pivot Level.

EG