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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #681
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:12am Sep 26, 2007 7:12am
Quoting el grande
Long at 231.83
SL 231.50
TP 234.36 or lower for anybody else

I am leaving this trade on without watching . besides it is on DEMO.

EG

Too bad I got stopped out on this. My SL was too tight. Anyway, that is what happens when I need to leave a trade. This pair needs a much wider SL.

I normally have my SL at 600 for this pair. But I was testing a smaller SL for today's trade specially becaue I was not watching it.

Anyway, Looks like this is going to continue UP with the 4hr stochastics still pointing UP. but the lower TF Stochs are already at the overbought level.

Should the lower stochs come down again to oversold levels while the 4hr stochs is still pointing up and above the 50 Level, then I will place a long trade then.

First target will be 233.36 which is teh 100% C=A for a zigzag ABC as wave 2. This is still within the valid endpoint to validate my wave 2 retrace count. And valid up to 233.60.... Beyond this level, this count is invalidated.

EG
  • #682
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:17am Sep 26, 2007 7:17am
Quoting kenari05
any outlook on GBPUSD? i dont like GJ though
My apologies kenari. I have not looked into capable with various systems aside from EW like I do with GBPJPY.

I am a slow poke and I could barely grasp the whole scenario of GBPJPY while observing various systems almost at the same time under various TFs. Besides I only use 1 computer which is by now quite outdated and slow. Charts are slow to refresh and windows take long to open.

AP has been providing his GBPUSD insights here more often than I do. You can check his works. marketwavez contributes too. they are a lot better than my counts.

But I will try to put in something on GBPUSD whenever I can.

EG
  • #683
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:18am Sep 26, 2007 7:18am
Quoting africanpip
Yes one position/trade



I hope the above answer your questions satisfactorily enough.

Regards,
AP
Yes, thankyou.
  • #684
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:42am Sep 26, 2007 7:42am
Count Adjustment .

But Initial Targets still within the wave 2 range. ( Using the FIB Extention Tool )

Have adjusted the A and B Labeing for Wave 2

EG
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  • #685
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:15am Sep 26, 2007 11:15am
Going for the 5m chart

We may have an extended wave 1 then a Diagonal triangle to finish off this Wave C? at a little above 88% retracement.

This could still go up some more.

I stilll have no trade loaded. But will wait for the Signal to go short.

May need 1 last wave leg Up for the 5th wave to hit the upper side of the triangle.

may not reach 100% C=A but higher than the minimum of 61.8(A) = C.

4 hour stoch still not above the 80 Level.

EG
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  • #686
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:36am Sep 26, 2007 11:36am
I am not placing any trades till I see that price is really going to come down where the 4 hour stoch has crossed back the 80 Level.

Long targets to watch for are:
233.78 for Resistance 3
234.78 As a Major Resistance Level
235.51 Weekly R1

Will wait for tomorrows Frankfurt and London Session to trade.

I am not feeling the urge to hurry up with my trades even on DEMO now.

It is nice to be able to sit back and analyze my charts with no Pressure at all.

I intend to digest EW counts with the other systems for cnfirmation / validation and supplementing my analysis.

EG



EG
  • #687
  • Sep 26, 2007 6:26pm Sep 26, 2007 6:26pm
Quoting el grande
Going for the 5m chart

We may have an extended wave 1 then a Diagonal triangle to finish off this Wave C? at a little above 88% retracement.

This could still go up some more.

I stilll have no trade loaded. But will wait for the Signal to go short.

May need 1 last wave leg Up for the 5th wave to hit the upper side of the triangle.

may not reach 100% C=A but higher than the minimum of 61.8(A) = C.

4 hour stoch still not above the 80 Level.

EG
Price broke out of that diagonal triangle and achieved a target price which you will see in the next chart.

It is valid for now to say that we have reached end of wave 2 for the following reasons

88% Retracement
C has surpassed the minimum 61.8% of A Projection

Attached chart will show possible new count.

1st I expect it to hit the bottom of the channel.
If it breaks out to the down side, then next target is the 2 red boxes down which as you can see wil be within the range of the 161.8% - 200% wave 3 projection. 2 systems converging on the same price range projection.

Although I expect the wave 1 down were this 12345 subwaves belong to to go lower than 229.72 for teh end of its sub wave 5.

But if the price bounces off the bottom side of the upward channel and fails to break it, a new count may need to be plotted again.

I would watch the 15m Stochastics and weigh my options once price hits that bottom channel, then relate that to the position of the 4hour stochs.

Happy harvest Everyone
EG
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  • #688
  • Sep 26, 2007 6:43pm Sep 26, 2007 6:43pm
GBPJPY

EW with FIB Extention Tool Projection - Wave 3
Channel Projections
Swing HI-LO 50% retracement Projection

At least 3 systems projecting Price within the same range

I would expect it to go thru Monthly Pivot at 232.53 and the 15m 100EMA @ 232.23

But it may stall at the weekly Pivot of 231.85 which is also in the vicinity of the weekly 5SMA

Daily S1 is @ 231.62
Daily S2 is @ 231.14

If it breaks Daily S2 and finds a candle open and close below it on the 4 hour chart, then will see 220.97 which is 61.8% of the whole HI_LO swing from the Low Swing.

I am waiting for my 5m and 15m Stochs to go to over bought level to Put in a Short trade. Currently it is still in an oversold level.

4h stochs is ready to cross back thru the 80 level.


EG
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  • #689
  • Sep 26, 2007 7:55pm Sep 26, 2007 7:55pm
for a continued Bearish Trend

4 hour chart using Fib extention tool with the following points as reference

0 = 233.67
1 = 229.72
2 = 233.23


161.8% = 226.84
200.0% = 225.33

261.8% = 222.89
300.0% = 221.38

425.0% = 216.44

This may still be a long way of as this is on the 4 hour chart.

EG


PS. Not for intraday traders to trade. above are just thoughts on using the FIB Extention Tool.
  • #690
  • Sep 26, 2007 8:13pm Sep 26, 2007 8:13pm
going back to 15m chart

if price bounces off he channel side, I will look for a zigzag completion where C=A is found. to complete another sub wave 2

And still eyeing an overall bearish trend

If it does go up and 5m and 15m stoch become overbought while 4hour stoch turns down or crosses down into the 80 Level , then I will load my short trade from there.

EG
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  • #691
  • Edited 8:44pm Sep 26, 2007 8:22pm | Edited 8:44pm
looks like un upward move will bounce off to the down side from 233.24

That is if it does not break to the upside of a channel drawn using the 2 Low swings of the 15 m chart and the Latest Hi Swing on the same TF.

This may coincide with the 5m and 15m stochs cross back pus the 4hour cross back validation.

EG
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  • #692
  • Sep 26, 2007 8:24pm Sep 26, 2007 8:24pm
This is my view

GBP/jpy preparing for a powerful movement and target area 238.80
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  • #693
  • Sep 26, 2007 8:34pm Sep 26, 2007 8:34pm
Thank you Falcon eye for your view and your chart

EG
  • #694
  • Edited 9:02pm Sep 26, 2007 8:59pm | Edited 9:02pm
Price bounced off 232.45

waiting for the break out to the down side or a continued trip UP for the Sub wave c of another sub wave 2

EG
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  • #695
  • Edited 11:09pm Sep 26, 2007 10:38pm | Edited 11:09pm
Short at 233.05

5 pips below Sell Limit Order at 233.10 for the C=A

EG

UPDATE

High at the moment is 233.12 on my chart

TP 230.74 for the 261.8% FIB Extention Projection

SL 300
  • #696
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:25am Sep 27, 2007 3:25am
Quoting africanpip
Hi EG,

On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.

Let's see what happens.

AP.
Hi EG,

You may recall the above was my scenario on Tuesday, We seem to be in the zone of the retracement for C.3.2. I am going to put a sell order in at 250 with a stoploss at 300. If it breaches 300 then there is a good chance of my count being invalidated. But I think we will see the start of C.3.3. First target would be 100 again. ( I just hope I haven't missed my entry)

AP
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #697
  • Sep 27, 2007 4:38pm Sep 27, 2007 4:38pm
News sure propped up this pair.

Sell limit order @ 233.24 got stopped out @ 233.35

Trade entered at 233.05 down by 139 pips now . SL was at 235.

LIVE trade at 233.05 currently down 139 pips too + 18 pip spread. SL 300

Was out since before Frankfurt.

4 our stochs was already overbought while I thought I already had more thanthe minimum of 61.8% A for the C value. I calculated that it was just a few pips to C=A when I left.

But the news at Frankfurt, London and US seem to have propelled price UP.

Anyway, so I am nursing a LIVE and a DEMO Trade on this pair now.

If you check your 1 hour chart, price has stayed inside a narrow channel from where I had y Origin for A. Yu can draw that channel using the origin of A and end of B as forming a trendline forming the base of the upward channel. Then draw a parallel line to it based on what I labelled as A.

If we are seeing a double zigzag here, 234.55 up to 234.78 ( I would considere as the end of the impusive 5 wave structure of the last sub wave c in this double zigzag.

234.66 is actualy where price meets the 4 hour resistance trendline above it.

Now I see a very BEARISH ENGULFING Candle on the 15 min chart.

EG
  • #698
  • Sep 27, 2007 4:44pm Sep 27, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting africanpip
Hi EG,

You may recall the above was my scenario on Tuesday, We seem to be in the zone of the retracement for C.3.2. I am going to put a sell order in at 250 with a stoploss at 300. If it breaches 300 then there is a good chance of my count being invalidated. But I think we will see the start of C.3.3. First target would be 100 again. ( I just hope I haven't missed my entry)

AP
HI AP.

Is 300 hundred your origin of C.3.1?

Wave 2 or C.3.2 is allowed 100% retracement of C.3.1 . I would place mine at 1 pip above origin of C.3.1

EG
  • #699
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:00pm Sep 27, 2007 5:00pm
Quoting Falcon eye
This is my view

GBP/jpy preparing for a powerful movement and target area 238.80
Hi every body

G/JPY penetrated triangle successfully

Now i am looking to 238.80 as a target of wave C

It is nice to buy whene price retest 233.40

Who agree with me

http://www.fadhaa.info/up/uploads/ecade19550.gif



http://www.fadhaa.info/up/uploads/f4f5e38424.gif
  • #700
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:22pm Sep 27, 2007 8:22pm
GBPUSD

Sell @ 2.0289 is my Entry.
SL @ 2.0317 Previous high was at 2.0316 being origin of my C.3.1
TP is Open for now.

Will set a TP if I leave before Frankfurt Open.

EG
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