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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #661
  • Sep 25, 2007 3:12pm Sep 25, 2007 3:12pm
Wave 2 Projection

as end of Wave C of a Zigzag Corrective wave

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 005_wave 2 up_ c targets.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #662
  • Sep 25, 2007 4:10pm Sep 25, 2007 4:10pm
A different system which projects end of sub wave c of wave 2 to be towards 100% retracement is shown below.

Still FIB Extention tool was used plus the FIB Retracement tool and a 12345 Triangulation method.

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 006_different system projecting end of wave 2.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #663
  • Sep 25, 2007 4:16pm Sep 25, 2007 4:16pm
Enhanced
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 007_enhanced.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #664
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:55pm Sep 25, 2007 6:55pm
Bounced off the 50EMA

Attached charts show revised counting.


EG
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 008_001.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 008_001_5m.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #665
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:04pm Sep 25, 2007 7:04pm
Closed my Long even before it touched the weekly Pivot.

I expect Price to still hit the Weekly Pivot. I should have just adjusted my SL on this MT4 platform.

After hitting the weekly Pivot, if it bounces off of this level, then we are in for a small retrace for the sub wave 2 down which could give us a new entry.

Just as I was typing this, price has retraced.

EG
  • #666
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:08pm Sep 25, 2007 7:08pm
Bounce off the 1 hour SMA a bit short of the 61.8% min retrace for Wave 2.

Loaded my first Long trade there.

If it goes down some more, will load another Long Trade at 78.6% retracement.

SAME TP as in last Chart

EG
  • #667
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:20pm Sep 25, 2007 7:20pm
managed to close and get 9 pips on that Long trade doing micro EW on 5m chart. exclusive of the 8pip spread on my demo account.

i just realized 231.22 was 3 candles on the 5m chart. so that could have been the sub wave 2 and now we are in just a subwave 4 ranging sideways.

waiting for a new entry for a long trade again.

EG
  • #668
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:30pm Sep 25, 2007 7:30pm
any outlook on GBPUSD? i dont like GJ though
{Link Removed}]
  • #669
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:52pm Sep 25, 2007 7:52pm
Lucky Timing?

Entered a Long Trade a little after the bounce off the 15 5 SMA.

Entry was based on estimating how much more it would go down based on my EW count for an expanded wave 4 in relation to how much drawdown was I willing to risk here.

because the new spread I have to pay now has been covered by the retrace , I was willing to take the potential drawdown here.

Entry was at 231.70

EG
  • #670
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:55pm Sep 25, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting el grande
Lucky Timing?

Entered a Long Trade a little after the bounce off the 15 5 SMA.

Entry was based on estimating how much more it would go down based on my EW count for an expanded wave 4 in relation to how much drawdown was I willing to risk here.

because the new spread I have to pay now has been covered by the retrace , I was willing to take the potential drawdown here.

Entry was at 231.70

EG
Closed at 16 pip profit instead of 18pips. Price seems to stop at the 231.85 weekly Pivot.

Looking for the actual wave 2 retrace now.

EG
  • #671
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:04pm Sep 25, 2007 8:04pm
Missed out on a lot of pips there.

BUt positive 16 pips is still great.

1st Daily Resistance is at 232.15
Monthly Pivot at 232.27
Daily 5SMA at 232.37
Daily Resistance 2 at 232.78

Levels to watch out for are above.

Still looking for a wave 2 retrace for a new Long trade. Otherwise I will have to wait till this Big wave 2 UP is finished with its sub wave c. Then i will enter my short trade for the Bigger wave 3 down.

EG
  • #672
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:08pm Sep 25, 2007 8:08pm
Looking thru other systems,

My EW Count may have to be revised again.

If price goes above 232.5..... and a full 15m candle or better a 4hour candle opens and closes above this, 234.38 may be in sight

This will require me to re assess my count and see where it needs adjustment.

EG
  • #673
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:36pm Sep 25, 2007 8:36pm
GBPJPY

Tweezor on the 30m Chart

Encountering Resisitance at 232.03 30m chart could send price back down to 30m 50 EMA and the 100EMA and 4hr 5SMA at 231.35 which is still within wave 2 retrace range.

Unless Support is held for Price by the weekly 5SMA, 1hr 5SMA.

Already placed a Long trade at 231.83. Am willing to risk the drawdown here.

EG
  • #674
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:47pm Sep 25, 2007 8:47pm
GBPJPY

I am putting this here even if I havenot re assessed my EW Count. I will be eaving soon but I am placing a Long trade based on this one which I think would require me to re assess my EW Count.

Anyway, Building a channel using the following points for the lower side of the channel. 228.09 and 229.72 as the low points on the 4 hour chart then using 233.66 as the high point for the other edge of the channel.

I see the following target profit levels as :

233.98
234.36
234.98
235.51 Weekly R1

EG
  • #675
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:56pm Sep 25, 2007 8:56pm
GBPJPY

4h stochastics is just at the 50 level. SO I have more reason to believe we still have a long way to go up.

We may just be on a wave 3 up starting from 231.22 on the 15m chart.

EG

Note that I am just trading this on DEMO as I wil not be around to watch this. Have already managed to gather some scalps on my DEMO but , am setting aside my LIVE trades in the meantime.

I need to consolidate the systems I am using and get them in sync with each other.
  • #676
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:59pm Sep 25, 2007 8:59pm
Long at 231.83
SL 231.50
TP 234.36 or lower for anybody else

I am leaving this trade on without watching . besides it is on DEMO.

EG
  • #677
  • Sep 26, 2007 12:44am Sep 26, 2007 12:44am
Quoting africanpip
Hi EG,

On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.

Let's see what happens.

AP.
Good call on this. I know this trade is now closed and I can see your EW count but if I may, I would like to ask a few questions about the trade:
1) Why did you enter short at this particular level = 20275?
2) What initial stop loss did you set? Did you apply a trailing stop loss?
3) Why did you set a profit target for ~20100 i.e. was it based on 20319-20256-20288 with wave 3 @1.618 [20187] and wave 5 @0.618 [20105]?
4) Did you enter a single position or scale in and out?
  • #678
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:05am Sep 26, 2007 1:05am
GBPUSD - I still have two alternate counts going at the moment with no resolution visible yet on the daily chart.

Anyone see any third or fourth EW count alternatives?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Daily_26Sep07.JPG Size: 135 KB
  • #679
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:13am Sep 26, 2007 1:13am
How do people here support their Elliott Wave count?
a) Do you use additional technical indicators to confirm/deny an EW count?
b) Is Elliott Wave analysis used as the primary or secondary tool to determine a price forecast?
c) Do you only use Elliott Wave and may look at other technical indicators [RSI, MACD, MA...] but they do not influence trading decisions?
d) Elliott Wave counts only with support from different timeframes? How many different timeframes do you use? [Sub question - which time frame do you think gives the clearest Elliott Wave patterns? I have started to look for confirmation on 15min charts for daily analysis rather than 60min charts as they seem to be clearer to me...]
  • #680
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:39am Sep 26, 2007 2:39am
Quoting rnl16616
Good call on this. I know this trade is now closed and I can see your EW count but if I may, I would like to ask a few questions about the trade:No Problem


1) Why did you enter short at this particular level = 20275?
I went in at 296, end of wave 2 up of larger C, see post 636 of this thread
2) What initial stop loss did you set? Did you apply a trailing stop loss?
I set quite a tight stop loss at 330 because if it breached that figure there would be a good chance of it invalidating the count, fortunately it dropped quite quickly. I never set a trailing stop but said to myself if it went up to a point that I felt uncomfortable with the trade I would close it, but I also knew that the news was still a good few hours away. I think I had about 150 in mind though.
3) Why did you set a profit target for ~20100 i.e. was it based on 20319-20256-20288 with wave 3 @1.618 [20187] and wave 5 @0.618 [20105]?
It was on the 50% fib line of wave 2 retace, also if you look further back there was quite a lot of S&R around that level, also chose round number (Psychological)
4) Did you enter a single position or scale in and out?
Yes one position/trade



I hope the above answer your questions satisfactorily enough.

Regards,
AP
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
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