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  • #2,721
  • Sep 24, 2007 8:50am Sep 24, 2007 8:50am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting WTB
You folks shorting this?
yeah, i think jacko got it right when he said ask a 5 year old

i'm confused is that chart long or short LOL
  • #2,722
  • Sep 24, 2007 8:51am Sep 24, 2007 8:51am
Quoting MPP
this move is simply a retracement to my 1h 50ema, if i'm lucky it will make my 4h gann and pick up my long at 1.4050.
IMHO, if next candle opens below 1.4100, i'm looking at a retracment back to 1.3980 - 1.4000

I believe we should be able to see 1.42/43 soon..

I'm on the same page that this is a retracement. to higher highs.
  • #2,723
  • Sep 24, 2007 8:51am Sep 24, 2007 8:51am
Quoting MPP
Hi WTB
love your SMA indicator, i'm still having issues with the video's, new PC on order, will fix this and then i can finish the course.

are you trading any pairs at this time. can't find much trending, but been following EU for a while now long since 1.3800 and adding.
Hello MPP,

I was following today USDCAD 1H for a short and EURUSD 4H for a long (after a retracement back to 1.4000). I have triggered no entry today, there's no momentum AT ALL across the board today. I will 99% sure remain out of the market today.

PS: let me know if you need any hand with the videos
  • #2,724
  • Sep 24, 2007 9:03am Sep 24, 2007 9:03am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting WTB
Hello MPP,

I was following today USDCAD 1H for a short and EURUSD 4H for a long (after a retracement back to 1.4000). I have triggered no entry today, there's no momentum AT ALL across the board today. I will 99% sure remain out of the market today.

PS: let me know if you need any hand with the videos
Can the course be provided on DVD?
not sure were the issue is with the videos, but the new system is up todate and hopefully won't keep shutting me out. possibly due to the amount of data on my PC.
  • #2,725
  • Sep 24, 2007 9:10am Sep 24, 2007 9:10am
Please send me an email MPP, let's not polute the EURUSD thread
  • #2,726
  • Sep 24, 2007 10:37am Sep 24, 2007 10:37am
I saw you people dicussing about the way eur/usd go....up or down.


The fact is... now eur/usd is going down.
  • #2,727
  • Sep 24, 2007 11:03am Sep 24, 2007 11:03am
I think you shouldn't expect a strong fast retracement in this pair. It is just not the way it works.

The core strategy is awaiting a cheap price to go long, as long euro at 1.40high throws you in an awful risk:reward, specially on the abscence of strong data to push it up.

AS I WAIT, I placed a small short for the run, without any obligation of returning big profit.

Lack of fresh buyings will inspire profit taking and we will never know how fast and how far it is going down, given the new US rate reality (cut + sense of new cuts).

Euro won't fall to the 50% fib in the next several days. Forget about it.
  • #2,728
  • Sep 24, 2007 11:08am Sep 24, 2007 11:08am
Completing my view:

"Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Government bond traders, who predicted six of the last seven recessions, say the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again before the end of the year as the economy comes to a standstill."

This is the kind of stuff we must look for in the upcoming weeks and the next long opportunity. Not whether or not Fed will cut, but whether or not the markets are going to price in another cut - starts usually at/after economic data releases such as inflation, payroll and stuff indicating economic slowdown

And also, any signs from Trichet that another hike is coming (his last statements were "hikes on hold, not finished")....

Just my opinion
  • #2,729
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:37pm Sep 24, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
Completing my view:

"Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Government bond traders, who predicted six of the last seven recessions, say the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again before the end of the year as the economy comes to a standstill."

This is the kind of stuff we must look for in the upcoming weeks and the next long opportunity. Not whether or not Fed will cut, but whether or not the markets are going to price in another cut - starts usually at/after economic data releases such as inflation, payroll and stuff indicating economic slowdown

And also, any signs from Trichet that another hike is coming (his last statements were "hikes on hold, not finished")....

Just my opinion
Well, Thank you for your opinion.
  • #2,730
  • Sep 24, 2007 1:17pm Sep 24, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting sifoorex
I saw you people dicussing about the way eur/usd go....up or down.


The fact is... now eur/usd is going down.
Nooo,

The price action tells that eurousd are overbought!
  • #2,731
  • Sep 24, 2007 9:54pm Sep 24, 2007 9:54pm
Quoting vinnie99
Nooo,

The price action tells that eurousd are overbought!
If Euro moves below its support line 1.4065, euro will be downtrend.
  • #2,732
  • Sep 25, 2007 3:20am Sep 25, 2007 3:20am
Quoting santoso
If Euro moves below its support line 1.4065, euro will be downtrend.
Downtrend as per which time frame?
  • #2,733
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:11am Sep 25, 2007 8:11am
All time frames....

EUR has been overbought for quite some time on the 4Hr and Daily as well as Weekly. We are also seeing divergence on the stochastics....the upward trend is now trickling down......almost exhausted.....

EURO attempted another breakout this morning to break 1.4129. We can only wait to see. Typically the longer a trend, the harder the fall....so if you are countertrending, I would say hold your horses and wait for the actual reversal to happen. There will be lots of profit taking once this happens the opposite way. Until then, preserve your capital.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #2,734
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:20am Sep 25, 2007 9:20am
How does it feel to hit your stop by going against the predominant trend ?

I hope we have learned something. I know I have.

Yours,

Marcello "The Matador"
Don't fight the bull, or be careful when doing so

Quoting chimex
http://bp3.blogger.com/_I_17e8S66CM/...usd+weekly.gifWell with the pair hitting target of 1.4129 and 4hr macd crossover i think we could be seeing a retracement towards the first support at 1.3905
So i am short on eur/usd with stops at 1.4140 and target at 1.3905..
  • #2,735
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:38am Sep 25, 2007 9:38am
i agree...eur/usd will fall when next futures will closely comes to expiration (i think the fall should start close to the end of october...), but it may print few more highs, just like when it broke 1.30, it went to 1.33, so i expect now to get to at least 1.44 since 2 cuts are priced in, and 1 possible hike,...many ups and downs till then ofcourse,...and ofcourse this spike, might be sold....
well i did put my 2 cents here and there, so i just , when it makes new highs....
its just money
  • #2,736
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:50am Sep 25, 2007 9:50am
Quoting de123
i agree...eur/usd will fall when next futures will closely comes to expiration (i think the fall should start close to the end of october...), but it may print few more highs, just like when it broke 1.30, it went to 1.33, so i expect now to get to at least 1.44 since 2 cuts are priced in, and 1 possible hike,...many ups and downs till then ofcourse,...and ofcourse this spike, might be sold....
well i did put my 2 cents here and there, so i just , when it makes new highs....
I agree on the futures expiry, just posted a brief comment on the cable thread. Definately some guys are holding on to substantial fiber futures due for expiry probably up to the 1.45 range.

its not the time and day for 1.42 yet.
  • #2,737
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:55am Sep 25, 2007 9:55am
Quote
EUR has been overbought for quite some time on the 4Hr and Daily as well as Weekly. We are also seeing divergence on the stochastics....the upward trend is now trickling down......almost exhausted.....

Trying to pick a top in such a solid uptrend is like trying to catch a falling knife: if you mess up, off goes your finger.

Moral of the story: trend saying up > stochastic saying overbought.

Guys, stochastics are just a mathematical formula, that's all. It doesnt know ANYTHING about the market or about the strenght of a trend. Entering a position just because the Stock says this or that is madness.
  • #2,738
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:41am Sep 25, 2007 11:41am
a little of topic...do u watch the cnn, sarkozy tightening relations with iran,...on the other hand renault increasing export of logans to iran, dont get it,.. ...someone is hiding something...:
its just money
  • #2,739
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:47am Sep 25, 2007 11:47am
Taking everything in to consideration....it seems like EUR would have to take a major hit to change at this point. It still seems rather strong. My opintion only of course. If that counts.=)
  • #2,740
  • Sep 25, 2007 12:20pm Sep 25, 2007 12:20pm
Can someone please explain to me the expire of futures and when does one know when somthing like that happens. Cause if seen somewhere something mentioned about that .
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