GBPJPY
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- #644
- Sep 24, 2007 1:30pm Sep 24, 2007 1:30pm
- | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: just another tough day in Africa | 204 Posts
AP
Checking my chart 15m now.... I am looking at 2.0295 as a possible entry for my Short. That is a little over 61.8% retracement for the wave 32.
4hour stochastic is already overbought and looks ready to crossback thru the level 80.
EG
Possibly....also see where it coincides with the trendline down, that point might be a good entry. also depends where the end of 3.1 is.
Eish!
If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
- #645
- Sep 24, 2007 4:11pm Sep 24, 2007 4:11pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Nice work EG.
Regards
EG
- #646
- Sep 24, 2007 5:23pm Sep 24, 2007 5:23pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Possibly....also see where it coincides with the trendline down, that point might be a good entry. also depends where the end of 3.1 is.
Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EG
- #647
- Edited 6:18pm Sep 24, 2007 5:37pm | Edited 6:18pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Up to know, Direction for me is still not clear for this pair.
Although it has dipped to 231.72 on my chart, that was still valid as a wave 4 retracement as it did not overlap with my wave 1 at 231.58
But if you check your charts, price now at 0631 in Asia, has encountered some resistance at 232.27 which is the monthly pivot and barely touched the 50 EMA with a long upper wicked Candlestick. On the 1hour chart, price met resistance at the 1hour 50EMA itself.
Stochastics at 15m chart is already overbought while the 30m and 1 hour have move out of over sold territory. However, 4h stochastics remain pointing down.
I remain Bearish on this pair while the 4 hour stochs is still pointing down together with the 5m and 15m.
EG
Although it has dipped to 231.72 on my chart, that was still valid as a wave 4 retracement as it did not overlap with my wave 1 at 231.58
But if you check your charts, price now at 0631 in Asia, has encountered some resistance at 232.27 which is the monthly pivot and barely touched the 50 EMA with a long upper wicked Candlestick. On the 1hour chart, price met resistance at the 1hour 50EMA itself.
Stochastics at 15m chart is already overbought while the 30m and 1 hour have move out of over sold territory. However, 4h stochastics remain pointing down.
I remain Bearish on this pair while the 4 hour stochs is still pointing down together with the 5m and 15m.
EG
- #648
- Sep 24, 2007 6:16pm Sep 24, 2007 6:16pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
If price goes lower than 231.58 then I think we either get a confirmation that we had a truncated 5th wave or the red label counting was correct.
Should it be that we already saw the Top at 233.67, then I have my bias to select the red counting over the truncated 5th wave.
This bias is based on time factor that a probable wave 4 took to unfold compared to wave 2.
SO to move on with this bias in analysis, attached chart would show that my current target for the end of the 1st leg is in the range of 231.07 - 230.71
If it goes lower than 231.88, there is a likelihood that it will fall further towards 230.47
EG
Should it be that we already saw the Top at 233.67, then I have my bias to select the red counting over the truncated 5th wave.
This bias is based on time factor that a probable wave 4 took to unfold compared to wave 2.
SO to move on with this bias in analysis, attached chart would show that my current target for the end of the 1st leg is in the range of 231.07 - 230.71
If it goes lower than 231.88, there is a likelihood that it will fall further towards 230.47
EG
- #649
- Sep 24, 2007 7:41pm Sep 24, 2007 7:41pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
was having difficulty posting this chart earlier as it was unfolding.
now waiting for a 38.2% retrace Up to the 232.00 Level as minimum retracement.
but will still be watching how this correction will unfold.
Finally out at a profit in of the short trade I placed at 232 last Friday.
But still nursing a much lower short trade I placed Friday morning.
EG
Finally attached it
now waiting for a 38.2% retrace Up to the 232.00 Level as minimum retracement.
but will still be watching how this correction will unfold.
Finally out at a profit in of the short trade I placed at 232 last Friday.
But still nursing a much lower short trade I placed Friday morning.
EG
Finally attached it
- #651
- Sep 24, 2007 8:18pm Sep 24, 2007 8:18pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
so far my charts are playing out well
How's everyone else doing?
Mine is ok. I may have exited too early with 1 of my short trades. BUt that is ok. just waiting for a retrace. Other one is still being nursed from last week.
But, this pair seems to be going south so I will let that ride.
EG
- #652
- Sep 24, 2007 8:30pm Sep 24, 2007 8:30pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EG
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
- #654
- Sep 24, 2007 11:28pm Sep 24, 2007 11:28pm
- | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: just another tough day in Africa | 204 Posts
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
Eish!
If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
- #655
- Sep 25, 2007 12:06am Sep 25, 2007 12:06am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hi EG,
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EG
- #656
- Sep 25, 2007 1:58am Sep 25, 2007 1:58am
- | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: just another tough day in Africa | 204 Posts
2.0100 is my weekly pivot
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EG
I closed at 100, now I will see how many pips I left on the table, but otherwise more than happy with performance of this trade. I will be out until after news, IF we are going to see wave 2 develop up it should be typical 2 behaviour so we need to watch for the signs, if all goes according to plan we should move back to 230 area.
Regards
AP
Eish!
If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
- #657
- Sep 25, 2007 3:03am Sep 25, 2007 3:03am
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EG
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- #658
- Edited 2:36pm Sep 25, 2007 1:43pm | Edited 2:36pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
GBPJPY Count Revision _ over extended sub wave 3
4hour stochs is likey to re visit over sold levels
EG
PS.
Count of wave 4 is invalidated if price goes higher than 232.37
In the meantimewatch the wave development in the 5m and 1m time frames if you want and relate to the 15m and 30m.
What worries me though is the Bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4hour chart and its crossing back up on the 4 our trendline Support which it just broke.....
This could also mean that wave 1 was finished and we are now on wave 2 UP retracement.4 hur stochs will continue to go up. we could also be seeing a sub wave b unfolding now and 4-8 hours later the end of sub wave c UP to finish off the wave 2 retracement towards 61.8 to 78.6% retracement from the 233.60 high and the 229.72 low
BUt I am sticking with my count but setting my SL at 232.38
I am going back to sleep. and wont leave any trade on for now. will watch during the asian session. I managed to get 98 pips when I placed a Long trade last night before I went to sleep after seeing what I initially thought was already wave 5 and my 4hour stochs with the rest of the lower TF Stochs turning up. (Maybe lucky huh?) then I woke up to see it start coming down again just in time.
edit / update I did enter a trade @ 230.95 and setting my SL at 231.40 to support a wave 4 count. this would be enough to risk while I sleep. got my 98 pips last . TP is @ 227.60. I am expecting wave 5 to over extend too at TP2 would be at 225.70
4hour stochs is likey to re visit over sold levels
EG
PS.
Count of wave 4 is invalidated if price goes higher than 232.37
In the meantimewatch the wave development in the 5m and 1m time frames if you want and relate to the 15m and 30m.
What worries me though is the Bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4hour chart and its crossing back up on the 4 our trendline Support which it just broke.....
This could also mean that wave 1 was finished and we are now on wave 2 UP retracement.4 hur stochs will continue to go up. we could also be seeing a sub wave b unfolding now and 4-8 hours later the end of sub wave c UP to finish off the wave 2 retracement towards 61.8 to 78.6% retracement from the 233.60 high and the 229.72 low
BUt I am sticking with my count but setting my SL at 232.38
I am going back to sleep. and wont leave any trade on for now. will watch during the asian session. I managed to get 98 pips when I placed a Long trade last night before I went to sleep after seeing what I initially thought was already wave 5 and my 4hour stochs with the rest of the lower TF Stochs turning up. (Maybe lucky huh?) then I woke up to see it start coming down again just in time.
edit / update I did enter a trade @ 230.95 and setting my SL at 231.40 to support a wave 4 count. this would be enough to risk while I sleep. got my 98 pips last . TP is @ 227.60. I am expecting wave 5 to over extend too at TP2 would be at 225.70
- #659
- Sep 25, 2007 2:27pm Sep 25, 2007 2:27pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Why I am biased that a Wave 4 has occurred...
I see an expanded wave 2 while this wave 4 is a sharp wave
if this is a sharp wave, then a 45% retracement of wave 3 is valid as wave 4 is from 23.6 to about 50% of wave 3 with some instances of up to 61.8% retracement for as long as it does not over lap with wave 1
for now the next higher peak of 231.37 is 1 pip lower than the 231.38.... This could be the sub wave 2 of the wave 5 down coming close to a 100% retracement of the sub wave 1.
just my thoughts before I go back to sleep here.
Happy harvest everyone
EG
I see an expanded wave 2 while this wave 4 is a sharp wave
if this is a sharp wave, then a 45% retracement of wave 3 is valid as wave 4 is from 23.6 to about 50% of wave 3 with some instances of up to 61.8% retracement for as long as it does not over lap with wave 1
for now the next higher peak of 231.37 is 1 pip lower than the 231.38.... This could be the sub wave 2 of the wave 5 down coming close to a 100% retracement of the sub wave 1.
just my thoughts before I go back to sleep here.
Happy harvest everyone
EG
