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EUR/GBP Trading Room

  • #21
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:26pm Sep 17, 2007 2:26pm
The volitility on this pair has increased and is likely to increase further. You can use 6 month LIBOR as a proxy for how the interbank system sees the BoE and ECB moving. Right now they see a decrease from the BoE and an increase from the ECB. That's the reason for the recent ECB/GBP appreciation
  • #22
  • Edited 11:38pm Sep 17, 2007 11:35pm | Edited 11:38pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Posting a 1 hour chart to view my positions as of Sept 14, 2007

I left my T/A indicators on this chart....remember, I am thinking Longer term Fundies...not a smooth ride....had I been trading T/A....I'd have been long.

The reason I chose Oanda for this little exercise is due too the position sizing available. As I "hinted" at in an earlier post, I have hedged my bet....though not with same position sizes, as my 2nd broker does not allow these sizes.

I do not think the hedge has any real relavence to this trade, as I think I would hedge future long term positions, as I scaled in, until LT trade was up and running in my favor. This has not required much of my time.

Wanting to keep this transparent....
Fxj
NewsTrder...Thx for info......
I am going to pull my other orders and hold here

UPDATE
Sept 17, 2007.... .6952 limit filled as advance continues -$17,500
Sept 18,2007..... .6972 limit filled............................. -$20,000

Total Position. Short 87.5k
9/18/07 02:34am edt
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #23
  • Sep 18, 2007 5:41am Sep 18, 2007 5:41am
Quoting FxJarhead
NewsTrder...Thx for info......
I am going to pull my other orders and hold here

UPDATE
Sept 17, 2007.... .6952 limit filled as advance continues -$17,500
Sept 18,2007..... .6972 limit filled............................. -$20,000

Total Position. Short 87.5k
9/18/07 02:34am edt
Is there a point where you consider that you were wrong or do you continue to add to infinity?
  • #24
  • Sep 18, 2007 11:58am Sep 18, 2007 11:58am
Quoting philmcgrew
Is there a point where you consider that you were wrong or do you continue to add to infinity?

Hey Phil,

In the above post I stated that I was pulling my other sell orders, also This exercise/experiment was hedged with a long position in another account. My thought process is outlined thru the posts in this thread.....

So no,..... I would not add to infinity...LOL. Though I will hold positions in play and work the trade as needed.

When I placed these sell orders, I had to let them ride for "sake" of this "experiment". Than I learned something I had not been aware of, and changed my stance. re:Newstrader info.

As an update, I have closed the 20k short position about 10-15 minutes ago.....bringing me to -67.5k short.

Glad I didn't quit my day job.

Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #25
  • Sep 18, 2007 12:10pm Sep 18, 2007 12:10pm
FxJ, thanks for the explanation. I suspected that you were a responsible trader and that there was something that I didn't understand. Thanks for clearing that up. I've enjoyed your posts.

One question for you though: What's the point of hedging?
  • #26
  • Sep 18, 2007 12:43pm Sep 18, 2007 12:43pm
Short this pair on confirmation of daily pin-bar is a go?

1st Target the weekly trendline that was cracked...

THoughts?
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  • #27
  • Sep 18, 2007 12:44pm Sep 18, 2007 12:44pm
Daily
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  • #28
  • Sep 18, 2007 2:25pm Sep 18, 2007 2:25pm
lookin o so very nice for a long from here
with reverse divergence
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  • #29
  • Sep 19, 2007 11:01am Sep 19, 2007 11:01am
Quoting philmcgrew
FxJ, thanks for the explanation. I suspected that you were a responsible trader and that there was something that I didn't understand. Thanks for clearing that up. I've enjoyed your posts.

One question for you though: What's the point of hedging?
Hi Phil,

The point of Hedging.....frankly, I never do.
Though for this little expermint/exercise....I was 'attempting' to scale into a LONG term Fundie trade.....yet my short term Charts called for being LONG this pair.
So I decided to trade it like I saw it ( long ) and stay "true" to my original plan of scaling in....You see, I am not a Fundie guy, nor long term trader....yet i keep trying!
Another thought that crossed my mind, was that I wanted to keep the "tuition" for this learning experience "curve" as low as possible, because for myself, it was more about the actual learning if i could, than the actual earning...which would have been the bonus. Yet this begs the question, was I true to the original concept??? I felt very little if any pain, other than posting my charts.....as you noticed!!!

I've also learned, that it is extremely difficult to "state" all my thoughts clearly thru a post...the step by step process and all. So in that regards, i think I'd make a poor teacher! May be why I post more charts.

To Update: The shorts ( -67.5k ) were closed manually at .6970 and the longs (+80k ) were closed manually at .6972.


If this exercise helped any looking in, I hope it taught them to stay true to thier strengths....whether it be F/A or T/A....Long Term or Short Term. It has done so for me.

Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #30
  • Sep 19, 2007 11:32am Sep 19, 2007 11:32am
Quoting FxJarhead
You see, I am not a Fundie guy...Fxj
"Beware of the dark side. Anger...fear...aggression. The dark side of the Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you in a fight."
Yoda-
  • #31
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:59am Sep 24, 2007 5:59am
Interesting hidden divergence setting up on this chart.
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  • #32
  • Sep 24, 2007 6:30am Sep 24, 2007 6:30am
I look at this pair as basically being driven by the Northern Rock woes, in which case the less news the better for the short side
I have a small short from the break of the higher tentative trend with a target of 0.694, but I'll get out if it doesn't break the longer trendline or goes above 0.698. Abreak below the longer trendline will mean lowering the stops and perhaps adding more.
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  • #33
  • Sep 24, 2007 10:45am Sep 24, 2007 10:45am
hey phil check out this chart

like u said the 4h is showing reverse divergence but if u have access to an 8h chart it shows a clearer pullback and reverse divergence also.

anyways heres a 4h chart it shows rev div. on the rsi as well as 2 drawn trendlines. the way i trade these trendlines is i draw em on a higher timeframe and switch to a lower timeframe for entries and exits.
in this case the tl's are drawn on my 4h chart so i switch to the 1h and find that the rsi is below both lines and the bottom trendline is providing resistance. id wait for a break of the bottom trendline and then i would buy(my attached chart is demo) and ill prob add on a bounce off the trendline and i would look to exit a small position when the upper trendline is reached and then id watch for a break of the upper trendline and the 70 area of the rsi which would trigger some big moves up
its like a multi timeframe method without changing the place of the trendlines or anything. just switching timeframes and trading.
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  • #34
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:33pm Sep 24, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting boxingislife
hey phil check out this chart
That's an interesting idea. I've never thought about something like that.
  • #35
  • Oct 9, 2007 6:34pm Oct 9, 2007 6:34pm
I have been watching this cross for several weeks now. In fact, back in early September, I was fortunate to have grabbed the break above .6825 and ride it up for a majority of the way. Since then, prices have sold-off in a corrective manner (wave 4 if you are looking at a daily chart) or a sub-dividing wave 3 on the weekly chart. Either way I look at it, I am bullish - but the trade will take some time - so scalpers can stop reading this post right now.

The weekly chart below is a good example of a longer-term wave 3 that should catapult prices higher in the days and weeks ahead.

The 180-min chart drills down several time frames to illustrate what is likely an impulsive wave 1 in the midst of a pull-back (wave 2) thus supporting our bullish view above .6945
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  • #36
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:48pm Oct 11, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
I have been watching this cross for several weeks now. In fact, back in early September, I was fortunate to have grabbed the break above .6825 and ride it up for a majority of the way. Since then, prices have sold-off in a corrective manner (wave 4 if you are looking at a daily chart) or a sub-dividing wave 3 on the weekly chart. Either way I look at it, I am bullish - but the trade will take some time - so scalpers can stop reading this post right now.

The weekly chart below is a good example of a longer-term wave 3 that should catapult prices higher in the days and weeks ahead.

The 180-min chart drills down several time frames to illustrate what is likely an impulsive wave 1 in the midst of a pull-back (wave 2) thus supporting our bullish view above .6945
Hope some of you are on board.....
  • #37
  • Oct 11, 2007 4:01pm Oct 11, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Hope some of you are on board.....
Good call Dave.

I wish more people would follow up on their initial posts and explain what did or didn't happen.
  • #38
  • Oct 12, 2007 1:28am Oct 12, 2007 1:28am
Nice scenario there. I'm not a believer in these "waves" as I find no reason the market should follow them, and they are not self-fulfilling like fibs, but the swing you traded is one of my favorite setups. Missed this one though, only took the short on the weekly pinbar of sept 23.

If you re correct and we penetrate the high, I bet on 0.7080 at least. In fact, it makes sense to buy now rather than later even for those who didn't get your nice entry - better R:R.

The EURGBP is becoming nicer to trade than what I used to perceive. Incredible trendiness, not much movement but lots of money per pip. On the daily, I'm going to dump that useless USDCAD pair for this.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #39
  • Oct 12, 2007 4:46am Oct 12, 2007 4:46am
Quoting Plutonite
I'm not a believer in these "waves" as I find no reason the market should follow them, and they are not self-fulfilling like fibs,
The irony in that statement runs deep. Most EW traders use fibs to project the length of waves.

I don't believe in them either (after a couple years of serious study) but the guy made a nice case for a move and it did what he said it would.
  • #40
  • Oct 12, 2007 5:12am Oct 12, 2007 5:12am
Why is that ironic? They may use fib levels, but the theory as you know contains a lot of "wave numbers" and other nonsense that is practically irrelevant to the market. Everybody can count "waves" in different ways - that's why despite the fame of the theory it never became self-fulfilling like fibs. Only the simplest you-cant-get-me-wrong things like support/resistance and fibs on clear price action can ever be self fulfilling for that reason.

I too love Dave's analysis here, especially as he uses charts to illustrate incentives and very few analysts do that convincingly. A lot better than compiling news scenarios don't you think

Quoting philmcgrew
The irony in that statement runs deep. Most EW traders use fibs to project the length of waves.

I don't believe in them either (after a couple years of serious study) but the guy made a nice case for a move and it did what he said it would.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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