Elliott Wave Counting with EG

GBPJPY

233.17 has been breached.

Next level to watch is around 233.60 which is the 4 hour trendline Resistance.

Then 234.76 which is my wae 52 and 100% retracement of wave 532 towards this wave 5 or end of Wave 532.

Let us see what happens

EG

GBPJPY

15m chart with a near double tweezers with a high of 233.44 for the 2 candlesticks.

just waiting for 4hour stochastics to reach over bought level.

stochastics on other TFs have alredy reached overbought levels.

EG

PS. not adding any trades from here . just nursing what I entered from 232.00

GBPJPY

Still need caution though as 234.56 is the weekly Resistance 1.

Might just get to that level to build a harmonic pattern on the 4 hour TF.

Harmonic Patterns are already seen on the 15m 390m and 1 hr TF.

EG

hi EG,correct me if i am wrong,i see a triple top forming and it will probably be ready to fall hard?

GBPJPY Update
15m chart

Approximate FIB Extention Projections are

wave 3 at

161.8% 233.28
200.0% 233.46 Wave 3 attained

Currently in wave 4 in this small wave 5 UP

Wave 5 Projections at
261.8% 233.75
300.0% 233.93

With this, Let us see if we see our top on these levels.

EG

You may be right. I was looking at the 15m chart. triple top is there but the 5 wave impulse count was not evident

But when I went to check on the 5m chart.... looks like a possible valid 5 wave impulse count was available.

thanks for pointing that out

More pips for you

EG

GBPJPY

The Bears may have been left disappointed not seeing the Fall of this Pair before the weekend. And that includes me....

With the curent Chart scenario, it is very likely that we still have not seen the end of the 5 wave impulse to the upside.

we could still be in a mini wave 4 which I epect to range in the early part of next week.

I have placed a questionable counting on my chart which shows that we could have seen the end of this wave C UP. However, I have doubts on it.

1st because I thinlk we have nt seen the sideways movement of a wave 4 while the sharp zigzag of a wave 2 was already there. Plaus the Sideways movement which should be there by the rule of Alternation wil see an expansion or a ranginging pattern. This I still have to see.

Once the ranging is there, I will be convinced that we are nearing the end of Wave C.

BUT..... that is if it does not go higher than 234.76 which is my wave 52.

If you look at the FIB Extention levels on my chart, FE 161.8 @ 233.87 was not reached by what I consider as the end of the mini wave 3 up.

Then looking at the FE 261.8 @ 236.00, this may seem to high considering the FE 161.8 was a failure.

Then going back to the C=A or C relationship to A of 61.8%, 100% and 161.8%, I was looking forward to a 61.8% which was surpassed.

And now the following levels have to be watched carefully to see a possible short term to long term Bull Run.

233.70 being the 1st 4hour Resistance Trendline as you can see on the 1 hour chart

234.22 as second Resistance Trendline

234.76 as 100% retracement of wave 532 to wave 52

Beyond this..... It is possible that Wave 4 UP from 219.31 was not finished after all. Although I would have considered the wave to there as being randing sideways so I expected to see wave 4 to be a sharp Zigzag.

If that is the case it will be valid as a Revised wave 4 until it reaches the Wave 1 end at 237.60

Beyond 237.60, I think we would be looking at revising the EW Count as:
Instead of a 1234, It would be A as a 123 then currently on the B UP with new targets for C ( where we wold be in a sub wave c up in a zigzag Big B wave UP ) as:

0 = 219.31
A = 235.50
B = 228.20 which could be the end of a triangle ( complex wave )
C =

FE
61.8% of A = 238.21
100% of A = 244.93
161% of A = 254.40

Above are conditions I expect if 234.76 and 235.50 are broken. Good for the BULLS who are presume are so few now.

Am using FIBO Group Chart if you want values to tally with your chart

Now to continue with the Bears..

Note that a harmonic Pattern of some sort is visible on the 1 hour chart with a Projected end @ 234.22 which is on a second Resistance Trendline.

hhhmmmm. somehow, my line of thought got swayed there.

Hopefully some one else will be able to provide additional in puts on the GBPJPY Pair.

I have been lurking in Auslanco's thread and I was having problem with the indicators being used. At first I thought it was because I was using an older version or Built of MT4. However when I updated to the latest Build, the indicators worked for awhile like 4 hours then just crashed and kept crashing everytime i open it. Tried re-installing but the same pattern happened ( worked for awhile then crashed again ) .

I was supplementing my EW Count Analysis with what they were discussing there. Well, I would still need to master basically Auslanco's System with Karmo's Fibs and Hakuna's MAs. That would be a very Powerful Combination together with the EW Counts.

EG

Charts

Many (and that includes me) have been long anticipating the fall of GBPJPY in particular.

And yet ... up to now, this pair is sitting on a price range level that may still go either way for the Pair.

Based on the monthly chart I have Plotted, it sure looks like it will go down in the many years to come.

But as we focus in on the weekly, this pair is still Bullish for me. It is just that we are currently in a wave 4 corrective wave

As we go to the 4 hour chart, here is where I find myself walking the tight rope. Or maybe that is not the correct term to use. Let us just say Price is at a range where it is still not clear whether it goes up or down

Breaching the following levels will step by step confirm the Bullish direction of GBPJPY . 234.76, 235.50 and 237.60 will finally confirm the B wave UP. and that is a long way to go for a real confirmation.

While If price continues to encounter resistance at 234.76 and 235.50, then we have a greater chance of seeing a downward move to lower than 219.31 sooner than seeing levels of 251.

Now, why the title "CROWD MENTALITY".....

I just realized that I have been riding what I would say the crowd mentality because i have been looking forward each day to this pair's fall.

It is true that on the daily and 4 hour charts, we will see this pair fall in the whole wave 4 corrective wave structure. But wave 4 is a ranging sideways wave. so we will see it go up and down from 251 to probably lower than 219.

And currently we are still on a daily range which we could consider as a range without clear direction for the scale of 2-4 weeks.

Would it be correct to say that The Crowd Mentality is probably thinking of a Big wave 5 down in a Big wave A Down of a flat wave 4 sideways.??

If so, then I should focus more on maintaining the Bullish stance. The Bears may have to wait a little longer and see 251 level first before we see the end of this wave 4 at price levels lower than 219.31

So many are predicting that we will see the levels lower than 219.31 for this pair this year end. However, that time frame still allows this pair to go up to 251 again before it really goes down to lower than 219.31

And if it does go lower, the EW count for the Big wave C of this wave 4 sideways Flat must not enter downwards price territory of wave 1 up of this BIG BIG C wave UP @ 208.14.

So... is it correct to say that the crowd thinks this pair will see the lows of 219 before the high of 251 in the coming weeks?

If so, then I should get off the the Bear Ride to start drawing in some Profits.

Ok... enough of this ramblings

EG

Here's my thinking. I don't do XYZ etc. I'm trying to learn Neely's system.

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/1199/gbpjpywh6.gif


Thoughts:

Looks like a triangle is formed. It can break my triangle, but can't go past my resistance line above it. Then the wave down should be at least 75% of the longest wave. This should be wave 1 of 5, for the final leg. Then we should enter another long boring correction :-/.

I threw this together in 20 minutes, but it's another view to the count

Hey Adrian.

Thank you for your Chart on GBPJY.

I was just kind of hesistant to label my bearish charts like you did which is similar to what al yaqen also has because of the rule of alternation. I could actually be wrong with my assumption and you and alyaqen could very well be right on labelling your wave 4 as a complex sideways corrective wave.

Please enlighten me or direct me towards a reference which would support why I have to label it as such ( like a sideways corrective wave ).

Because with the little that I know and could remember about the rule of alternation which I currently base my possible count on this as a sharp Wave 4, I would describe wave 2 as a shallow sideways flat corrective wave.

And that is the reason why I labelled the zigzag wave 4 up.

I am attaching a new chart to this post. Please excuse the overlapping and bundled fibonacci projections at the end of the chart. those are for the lower timeframe projections.

But looking at this 4 hour chart,

Bearish Direction is supported by the following facts:
1. Wave 3 projection down if this is a 12345 = Big wave A is supported by the fact that wave 3 projection beteween 161.8% to 200.0% FE is satisfied for me.

2. I see a sharp zigzag Wave 4 finished if I base it on the rule of alternation.
Although my concern is the time factor which I think should have taken longer for Wave 4 to finish.

3. @ 235.50 Price has retraced a little more than 61.8% where in normal wave 4 would retrace wave 3 up to 50% only. Though case have been cited where wave 4 exceeds 50% and that is up to the 61.8%

4. From what I think should have been the end of Wave 4 @ 235.50, so far the other highs have always be lower than this level. But my concern with this is that it has somehow formed what seems like a triangle. and looking at it from afar, I would consider this as a symetrical triangle on an upward trend. And this means that it will break up to the UPSIDE. That is if I consider the origin @ 219.31 as moving UP.

But if you still move back some more then the symmetrical triangle can be seen for a down trend which could most likely break to the downside

If that happens, the following price levels as they are surpassed to the upside will 1 by 1 confirm that we have already finished an abc wave in the Bigwave A and not a 12345 for Big wave A.

Price levels to surpass
233.75-93 wave 5 of sub wave c up of a wave 532 before it starts the wave 533 down
234.22 is the wave 52 for a 100% retracement limit. if tis is broken higher then my wave count for the startof wave 53 down is wrong.
234.24 is the current level of the 4hour Resistance Trendline to break to the UPSIDE.
235.50 which is my current wave 4 end, if surpassed would indicate that I can still consider a wave 4 count up to the end of my wave 1 at 237.60

But beyond this, we are befinitely in a Big Wave B UP whose termination point will possibly be at the following levels basedon the relationship of C to A inside this Big Wave B

0 = 219.31
a = 235.50
b = 228.25

end of sub wave c UP
61.8 = 237.96
100 = 244.19
161.8 = 254.26

But note that if we are in a sub wave c UP in this Big Wave B, There has to be a complete 5 wave impulse division ending at either of the 3 levels I enumerated above.

EG

Have you ever heard of Neely El Grande? This is a lot of sidways action so sideways action is generally corrective. Trend is still down. There's a RARE possibility for a continuation of the correction, but we're in a combination correction with a flat to triangle.

I could be wrong since I've only started counting a month ago :-D

Yes Adrian, I have come across Neely.

It is just that I have not immersed myself in his works yet.


Attached is the 15m chart which I posted last week (Friday I think) where I described that prie may range because of the possible wave 4 scenario in the wave c up of wave 532.

Somehow, it seems to be playing out as I expected.

Come Frankfurt and London session, we could then expect a rally to finish of the wave 5 in this wave 532 and hope to see the begininning of the wave 533 down

I think that is if we do not go higher than 235.50

EG

GBPJPY

Price is still ranging and could still play out either of the 2 color countings I put on the chart.

Red Label - which is still suspect for me ( altough I would actually benefit with my current 2 short trades since last Friday ) would lavbel current range as wave 2 Up for the main trend down while

Yellow Label - Which is more likely but means we are in wave 4 sideways and we still have to see the top of this wave probably today.

EG

GBPJPY

Possible Truncated 5th wave on the 15m Chart?

EG

Hi EG,

Been a while but as you know this was what I thought on the 17th sept, although I was weary I trusted my EW count. It may be premature but I am now short for 3 of C down. Risk is minimal because if it goes past start of 1 I will close, so I am in, short at 296 for start of 3 of C down.

Let's see what happens.

Regards,
AP

Hi AP

2.0316 is the tops on my chart now. I think you got a very good entry there. I have not been trading GBPUSD for quite some time now. Have just been following it in the charts.

I just might get on it on the wave 2 retrace. IT is wave 31 for me now so looking for wave 32 retrace.

Have been focusing on GBPJPY these past weeks.


Happy Harvest.
EG

GBPJPY

Ready for wave 5 up for the end of Wave C?

a closer view

AP

Checking my chart 15m now.... I am looking at 2.0295 as a possible entry for my Short. That is a little over 61.8% retracement for the wave 32.

4hour stochastic is already overbought and looks ready to crossback thru the level 80.

EG