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USD/CAD Trading Room

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 8, 2007 1:52am Sep 8, 2007 1:52am
Posted this within the PF but would like to hear long term views of others?

I have a few scenarios, one being if the TBL doesn't hold a price projection to 1.0050ish area just above 1. par

These are the scenarios I will be watching to find an entry, if it pans out this way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eeee.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2
  • Sep 13, 2007 8:26am Sep 13, 2007 8:26am
mbq...I rarely trade this pair, though found a set up this morning to trade.
So I can not offer any help with your discussion/projection.

usd/cad 15 minute set up Scalp

Long @ 1.0323
Target @ 1.0353
Stop Loss @ 1.0310

Closed for +30 pips

Entered this trade on the 8/8 cross coming out of deep OS territory with a slight convergence to price, also a reversal from a low. One mistake noted, I did not wait for the CCI to confirm, that came one bar later....a little quick on the trigger. Waited for a 3 ema pull back, saved 4 pips with that.
Notice when Stop loss was moved to a trailing stop.

See attached chart for review
Fxj
Attached Image
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #3
  • Sep 17, 2007 9:28pm Sep 17, 2007 9:28pm
Just saw the headline that oil has hit a new record in Asia trade at USD 81.04....
  • #4
  • Sep 19, 2007 1:45pm Sep 19, 2007 1:45pm
good entry here for a short in my opinion or in this area at least.
Attached Image
  • #5
  • Sep 23, 2007 6:34pm Sep 23, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting mbqb11
Posted this within the PF but would like to hear long term views of others?

I have a few scenarios, one being if the TBL doesn't hold a price projection to 1.0050ish area just above 1. par

These are the scenarios I will be watching to find an entry, if it pans out this way
Hey mbq...
Had kept an eye on your thoughts/projections since the above post.....do you have any updates....where you able to get a good short entry? Did you target 1.0050, or are you still holding?

Thx
Fxj

P.S. - as a ''fundie'' sidebar, for any reading....unrelated to this tech question, ( didn't want to add another post )

In my small part of the world, just across the bridge from Windsor, Onatario, Canada.
Visited the BIG City over the weekend to ''check out'' the par effect of usd/cad. Noticed the following....
Far more Ontario plates in the Fuel stations ( lines even! ) and Pub parking lots.
Many more on the Highways....NOT a holiday weekend either.
Many more Onatrio plates parked in the Suburban Mall parking slots. Even the retail shops in the City.
Many more visitors from Windsor to the 3 casinos we have here....and trust me, they are not as nice as the Windsor casino.....
Hell, even the owner of the pub I tend to frequent was accepting CAD dollars since Friday. This was a suprise!! Early last year I had a Canadien quater I had used to pay part of my tab, and they wouldn't take it!!!! LOL
Now I realize that this is a VERY small slice of info in a larger eco picture....yet with the loonie at par, and my area in the crapper.....many retailers are pretty happy for the business.

Too small a slice of info?, not important?, a fluke?,.....anybody want to chew on this??? maybe provide a bigger picture and thoughts?

Happy to read them
Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #6
  • Sep 23, 2007 7:49pm Sep 23, 2007 7:49pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Too small a slice of info?, not important?, a fluke?,.....anybody want to chew on this??? maybe provide a bigger picture and thoughts?

Happy to read them
Fxj
They are good points...Yesterday in Halifax I was paying for coffee, and and some of the change I used included an American quarter. 5 years ago that would have been worth almost 40 cents Cad, now I felt a little bad passing it over, as if I was shortchanging the clerk...I know some of the export business from our area is hurting - they can deal with a slow drift in the ccy, but a big change (5% in two weeks) is painful....
  • #7
  • Sep 23, 2007 8:09pm Sep 23, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Hey mbq...
Had kept an eye on your thoughts/projections since the above post.....do you have any updates....where you able to get a good short entry? Did you target 1.0050, or are you still holding?

Thx
Fxj

P.S. - as a ''fundie'' sidebar, for any reading....unrelated to this tech question, ( didn't want to add another post )


Happy to read them
Fxj
Yes I got a great entry on the breakdown and we had a pullback I believe my entry was 1.0435(I forgot about this post, but updated my trade in the PF). I took off half my position at the TBL(as noted on the picture), and the rest I let run till almost my final projection. I took the rest of about 60-70 pips away from it. I am back in wait mode. Price may very well consolidate around this 1 area, and give us a prime opportunity to enter once we break out of it.

Thanks for the "fundie" view I love reading those types of information

Take care,
Mike
  • #8
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:04pm Sep 23, 2007 11:04pm
I'm seriously thinking of going long. COT is almost perfect for a reversal right now, and the pair has fallen without pullback for hundreds of pips clear below the standard deviation lines commonly used for BB..etc. There has to be a serious pullback soon. Need some pretty price action bsides the so-so pinbar on the dailies though.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #9
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:49pm Sep 23, 2007 11:49pm
Plutonite,

Sure is something to think about and keep and eye out for.

Posting a chart for review.
Fxj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily.gif Size: 17 KB
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #10
  • Sep 24, 2007 8:46am Sep 24, 2007 8:46am
Quoting FxJarhead
Plutonite,

Sure is something to think about and keep and eye out for.

Posting a chart for review.
Fxj

Yup...my sentiments, exactly. Also notice in your chart that the 61.8% fib lines up nicely with a previous tweezer bottom (double low). Nice place for previous support to become new resistance!
  • #11
  • Sep 24, 2007 9:14am Sep 24, 2007 9:14am
Will history repeat itself? Here is a monthly chart of the USD/CAD in march of 74 it was .9562 at it's lowest........
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3...enshot2en6.png
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #12
  • Sep 24, 2007 10:04am Sep 24, 2007 10:04am
Quoting johnedoe
Will history repeat itself? Here is a monthly chart of the USD/CAD in march of 74 it was .9562 at it's lowest........
Not unless Canada elects another socialist nutcase. Took us thirty years to get over the last one....
BTW, crude isn't doing to well today, which is going to reflect in the CAD....
  • #13
  • Sep 24, 2007 2:15pm Sep 24, 2007 2:15pm
Well, looks like you guys were right, we entered a consolidation at last. I'm going for a risky buy very soon. May the commercials be with you
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14
  • Sep 24, 2007 2:38pm Sep 24, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting johnedoe
Will history repeat itself? Here is a monthly chart of the USD/CAD in march of 74 it was .9562 at it's lowest........
I was wondering how long it would take for someone to draw a trendline from 1974. It wasn't a matter of "if," just a matter of "who."
  • #15
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:23pm Sep 24, 2007 4:23pm
Would like to see a pull back....US Existing housing coming out this week....

Don't know about the rest of the 49, but MANY signs up all over the place in my area of the world.

Putting on a Buy Lmts around .9950 - .9960 area.....will adjust as needed.

Fxj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily.gif Size: 13 KB
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #16
  • Sep 25, 2007 10:22pm Sep 25, 2007 10:22pm
No Fill on a pull back as I had would preferred, instead filled on a Buy Stop at 1.0033. 8/8 cross- cci confirms.

Stop set under lows of 9/24 bar.....Stops to be adjusted as needed.

Targeting 38.2 Fib @ 1.0188
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcaddaily.gif Size: 12 KB
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #17
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:34pm Sep 25, 2007 11:34pm
Me thinks you may be a bit premature in going long........but I could be wwrroonngg
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #18
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:54pm Sep 25, 2007 11:54pm
Quoting Plutonite
There has to be a serious pullback soon.
Ahhhh... famous last words of many traders...
Mr. Trend
  • #19
  • Sep 26, 2007 12:33am Sep 26, 2007 12:33am
Post these two statements conspicuously.....
The first, biggest and worst enemy of any trader is his/her own opinion about where the market is going.
The next biggest enemy are opinions of friends and brokers about where the market is going.

Trade what you see.... not what you hear.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #20
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:24am Sep 26, 2007 1:24am
Quoting Mr Trend
Ahhhh... famous last words of many traders...
The stars, they are never wrong, you have to wait for their signs in the darkest moments

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=46881&page=4



PS: For the humor impaired, I have just been lucky with the trades this month. This was a pinbar setup and I took it, no rocket science, no arrogance involved. Could have easily been wrong
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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