Elliott Wave Counting with EG

GBPJPY

After the British Retail Sales Figures, this pair shot UP.

Right now I would liketo keep my Bearish Stance.

Check your 15m chart.

This could be the wave 4 UP which based on a Point Zero in 9-18-07 Highest.

Downwards you will count 123 and this wave is wave 4 up which could end towards 232.72 to have a C=A Zigzag

Wave 2 moved side ways.

EG

PS. Sorry no time to post chart.

Besides, You can also see a Gartley Pattern to support the Potential C=A that is for those who understand the GArtley or Harmonic Patterns.

UPDATE

GBPJPY
Count on the 15 minute chart got invalidated by supposed wave 4 in this TF overlapping with wave 1.

EG

Still Holding on to my Long Trades on GBPJPY.

Looking forward for the C=A to be met at 232.72

By then I will close my original Long from early this morning for a part Loss while the current Long I made this pm should offset part of that Loss.

From 232.72... if it is really the end of small wave 4, then it will be wave 5 Down next and this will be towards 229.50- 230.

EG

Agree with you, but ATM current C to .72 not looking good, hm...

Yes. that was not met.

But checking it out with FIBS, C relationship with A could be any of the following . Although , often we look for a C=A

61.8% of A
100% of A
161.8% of A

and this one met 61.8% of A before proceeding down wards and actually reaching target price 229.64 on my chart.

Well, I did not profit from that. I should really avoid trading these retracements on the lower time frame. Often, I know I am in the right direction but I get stuck trading the retracements on this small TFs.

Another day .... another trade.

EG

GBPJPY

For today, you can trade with me or against my trades

check your 4 hour chart,
0 = Low of 228.20
1 = High of 234.22
2 = 229.45

So let us maintain our Bearish Stance and hopefully this time I get this right in my trades.

Refer to my previous charts...

My initial question on "Zigzag 532 or 5 Wave a UP" I think may have the answer now.

Using the points above 012 for your FIB Extention tool, Following will be he projection for the completetion of a much bigger Zigzag Corrective Wave.

61.8% 233.17
100% 235.47
161.8% 239.19. But I have doubts it will exceed the 100%

If you look at the 4 hour chart again, and notice the following points to use on FIB Extention tool to Project a Bearish Direction for C,

0 = high of 234.22
1 = low of 231.10
2 = 232.57

C= A or 100% is at 229.45 which is exactly the end point of C.

Whew.......I missed that!!!!!
I just realized that now when I was checking it out.

And this is the Zigzag Bdown

And now to be followed by the C wave UP of the Bigger Zigzag Corrective Wave 4 UP.

If you Look at Harmonic Patterns too, you will see the patterns to help visualze the Bearish and Bullish Directions Plus the Probability of the C relationship to A.

EG

continue....

I will settle for a 233.17 minimum target which is 61.8% of A.

Going for 100% at 235.47 will invalidate my wave 52 count. as it will be greater than the 234.76 level it is on.

But you can watch for a 5 part impulse wave on this C wave up and when it reaches 61.8% and you have completed the 5 waves, then I think there is a probability that we finished wave C and will be the Best Location to Load UP short trades for the continued Bear Trip.

Hope you all harvest a lot of PIPS.

EG

now that I am looking for the Bearish Projection, since I am looking at end of a 532 wave ( meaning wave 2 inside a bigger wave 3 which is part of a much bigger wave 5 - so don't get lost ) maximum retracement up to finish this wave 532 is 100% retracement to 234.76 which is inbeteween 100% and 61.8% of the Wave projection for C.

We will take 234.76 as the maximum end of C so that when we use FIB Extention tool to project end of Wave 53, our figures will be at the minimum. I will revise this as soon as we get a confirmation that 532 has ended and our count not invalidated.

so here goes tentative projection for wave 53

0 = 234.76
1 = 228.20
2 = 234.76

100.0% = 228.25
161.8% = 224.23 wave 3 minimum
200.0% = 221.75
261.8% = 217.73 wave 5 minimum
300.0% = 215.25

If what I think is C wave UP is lower than 234.76, then price projections will be lower.

All these projections will be invalidated if price goes higher than 234.76 on my chart.

Happy Harvest Everyone.

EG

I think today showed a 1-5 count and now is in Correction A. Correction B will start soon followed by a C.

That should complete AT LEAST A and B. Then we should have at least one final leg down to finish out C or 3.

Looks to be the same set-up on both UJ and GJ.

Hi Adrian.

What Timeframe are you looking at?

EG

GBPJPY

Now we are moving... UP

Fbib Projections for the end of Wave C UP though may not reach even 61.8% at 233.17.

Currently I am looking at the range of 232.04 to 232.39 as end to ths 5 part impulse wave C.

Based on 1hr or 15m chart. Looks like 1234 then 5 UP now and stalling right into the entrance of Franfurt Open.

Sitting on the Daily Pivot of 230.68
and having the other pivots at the top as resistance levels 231.40 Weekly Pivot and 232.27 as Monthly Pivot.
EG

GBPJPY

Watch out for 232.27.

If it breaks that , then we go higher to 233.

But 232.27 is in th erange for 2 FIB Extention Projections.

EG

GBPJPY

Took the Short Trade @ 232.00.


Happy Harvest Everyone

EG

I counted 5 waves already and it was at the FE 216.8% Extention.

and it was near the min 61.8% C relation to A.

But my SL is at 300 pips.

EG

Just giving it some room to go up some more just in case.

I am leaving now so can,t watch my trade any more.

But I left a Sell Limit Iorder at 234.00 just incase it decides to go up some more.

What is your count for this C up? I am counting:
w1=231.59
w2=230.42
w3=currently in

Okay I am back.

Your count is highly possible if I base it on a 4 hour chart.

With that, we should be on a wave 4 correction right now which is expected to be a sideways movement as wave 2 was a zigzag.

Ifthis was correct count , then Wave 5 Projection would be

261.8% 236.05
300.0% 236.86

But THese projections are way above what I considered as my wave 52 @ 234.76

Wave 531 is at 228.20. From here I projected a Zigzag but may not be a C=A. So I am still Hoping that end of C will be inside the range of 235.47 (100% of A which I hope is unlikely) to 233.17 (61.8% of A)

Besides there is a 4 hour trendline within this range which is at 234.47


Also you have a potential Harmonic Pattern on your 4hour chart which could turn out to be a Bearish BAT Pattern or something like it.

EG

GBPJPY

Wave 4 retrace at either of the following levels.

38.2% 232.03
50% 231.73

Before if goes up again

Stochastics should support this

EG

GBPJPY

just an add on.

if this is wave 4 retrace... most likely it will be at 38.2% as this is also at the level of previous sub wave 4 of prior wave 3.

So i think it will range within a range of 232.40 and 232.99

Just my thoughts here.

EG

oopppsss...

My apologies. The range I gave was actually 23.6 to 0 retracement.

And would you believe it??? Price has stayed within That range up to now. Mosty probably we will not see retrace to 38.2% down of Wave 3 since this is basically sideways.

By the way, wave 4 retracements may have the folowing levels:

23.6% when the trend is really strong
38.2% is most common
50% a possibility and stll within normal
Higher than 50% may still be possible for as long as it does not overlap with Wave 1 and 2.

EG

GBPJPY

unless this is truncated or a 5th wave failure...

but I am keepng watch on the 4 hour stochastics to reach over bought level.

EG